Sunday, December 17, 2017
Fantasy Focus: Breakout Candidates- Yoan Moncada
Uber prospect, Yoan Moncada, go off to to a very slow start to his MLB career after his callup last July which may cause fantasy baseball players to sleep on him for 2018. His overall line last year was .231/.338/.412, 8 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 3 SB, 12.6 BB%, 32 K%, 231 PA. The K rates scare a lot of people but in Moncada's case, they are likely a byproduct of his plate discipline as evidenced by the high walk rate. If you look at his splits, it breaks down to a .105 BA in July, .238 in Augusta and .276 in September with 5 of his 8 HR's. He'll be more valuable in OBP leagues than standard 5X5 leagues, but he's poised for a huge breakout no matter what now that he's gotten his feet wet in the major leagues.
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Dr. B, I want to get your take on different strategies for 5X5 leagues and what you have seen work and fail. Have you decided to punt on saves or SB's or any other category in any given season and seen positive results?
ReplyDeleteI am in a 12 team league where 2 of the top teams consistently have punting strategies, one punts on saves (carries no closers) and the other punts on W's and K's by not carrying any SP's. They both seem to have great offenses every year so that helps but they have seen great success throughout the regular season and into the playoffs.
I am leaning towards trying a punting strategy myself this season and I'm looking at making some bold early round draft moves to help secure a few categories. My thought is that if I target a speedster like Dee Gordon and go after 2 of the top 5 closers early, I should have enough roster space to be able to carry more SP's and on offense lean more on the power bats later in the draft.
I would be securing saves and SB's while sacrificing BA and potentially SP depth but I think I can live with losing BA each week and trust my luck picking up pitchers throughout the year. Are there any strategies you are looking at using and can you do an article on value picks for each category in the next few months?
That is a good question with no easy answer. I am probably not the right person to ask as my fantasy team has not done too well for several years now. I believe there is more than one way to win in Fantasy Baseball. The shorter answer is I think it is risky to punt any category, but if you are going to pick one to punt, make it SB's. On offense, I sell out for power without sacrificing too much BA and just don't worry about SB's. If you are going to try to compete for SB's, then do it by overpaying for a SB stud like Hamilton and then forget about it with your other picks.
DeletePitching is harder. I try to maximize Saves by rostering the maximum number of closers I can get my hands on, which in my league is 5. I maximize W's and K's by filling my bench entirely with SP's them rotating them in and out daily(this strategy won't work in formats where you only reset your lineup and rotation weekly). I try to compete for ERA and WHIP despite rostering at least 10 SP's by looking for SP's with low WHIP's.
I will say that the guy who is most consistently successful in our league rosters as many RP's as he can with only a few stud SP's and he tries to win Saves, ERA and WHIP while punting W's and K's.
The problem with punting is if you are going to punt even one category, the odds really start to work against you unless you are sure you can achieve dominance in at least 6 categories and that is a very tall order.
2017 was my 1st year in fantasy and enjoyed it! I found that the pitching was more challanging to find success. I noticed that too that the successful team had a few good stud starting pitchers, not easy to find, and about 5 good closers. The injuries make it even more challenging. Interesting that other fantasy players had the same issues.
ReplyDeleteLG
I have always, always been able to find cheap starting pitching and struggled to find hitting in fantasy baseball, until last season. Interesting how the fantasy games changes along with the real game.
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