First, lets's review a couple of other factors at work here: 1. Young hitters do not hit as many HR's in their teens as they will in their mid-20's because their bodies have not matured yet. They just don't have the strength to jack those balls out of the park yet! This can be seen in the very strong trend of lower OPS's and HR% in the lower minors. 2. Age vs League. While a 1 year difference in age between two prospects is negligible, a 3 year difference is huge due mainly to the aforementioned body maturity. Who your prospects are playing against is an extremely important factor in any analysis. Of course, they would be expected to perform better against players who are closer to their own age.
It has always been my impression that the league batting leaguers in the Eastern League in particular are historically made up mostly of older prospects who are no longer serious prospects, but are still hanging around the minors keeping the dream alive, collecting a paycheck and providing competition for the true prospects. Two examples that come immediately to mind are Javier Herrera and Mark Minicozzi from last year's Richmond Flying Squirrels team. Do you think it is an accident or chance that those two were the top hitters on their team and the #2 and 3 hitters in the league by OPS? Well, they were age 28 and 30 respectively, in the middle of what most analysts believe a ballplayer's peak years of productivity are. I decided to do a comparison of the top hitters by OPS for the AA EL and the Low A SAL to see if my theory held up. Here is what I found:
7 of the top 10 hitters by OPS in the EL last year were age 26 or over. The average age of the top 10 hitters by OPS in the league was 26.4 compared to an overall league average age of 24.4.
5 of the top 10 hitters by OPS in the SAL were age 20 or under with the average age of the top 10 hitters by OPS of 21.4. The overall league average age is just under 22, I believe it is 21.7 to be exact. The average age of the top 10 hitters by OPS in the SAL was slightly under the league average age.
What does this all mean? A superficial glance at league OPS would lead you to believe that the SAL is a tougher league for hitters, when you factor in age vs level into the equation, you can see that an age appropriate prospect is competing against players who are relatively much older in the EL as compared to the SAL. An age appropriate hitting prospect in the SAL will have an easier job than an age appropriate hitter in the Eastern League.
I believe this is the best explanation for why age appropriate Giants hitting prospect struggle so much in the AA Eastern League and why for an age appropriate hitting prospect, the EL is the toughest league to get past.
Nice work. I got harassed some for pointing out age comps in the Eastern, mostly for Gary Brown, on a semi-popular Giants forum. If you look at the top 40 leaderboard, you'll find a ton of "non-prospects" grinding away, so while you focused on the top 10, I think it would most likely hold sway further down.
ReplyDeleteI found that article on MiLB.com very interesting. The one I read talked about the High-A leagues... did they post a second article? Between the cooler spring weather and the fact that many of the pitchers in AA are either big dog prospects like Crick or guys who've mastered the level but can't find a spot in AAA, I'd definitely say it's the toughest level to hit in as well. That's what makes the seasons put up by Susac, Duvall and Parker last year that much more impressive. As I discovered in my post about Mac Williamson last month, the typical "traditional" (age-appropriate or younger) Giants prospect sees an AVERAGE drop of 100 points on his OPS when making the jump from San Jose to Richmond. That is very significant, and I don't know of any other level in the minors where that happens to hitters.
ReplyDeleteI re-read your post on Mac Williamson, which BTW, comes up when you Google Average Age Eastern League. I should have referenced it in my post. You did a good job of pointing out the age vs level issue and how that could impact his performance as he moves up to the AA level.
DeleteAnother way of looking at this is that the league average OPS for the EL is inflated by the presence of so many old prospects who are top performers there whereas the SAL OPS is not inflated by older prospects since it is younger prospects who dominate that league.
That is a great point. Thanks for complimenting my post. In compiling those numbers, I actually think it helped prepare me for what could be a tough season for Mac, statistically at least. But if he can keep his average in the .260-.280 range, and hopefully knock 15+ balls out of the yard, it will be a successful campaign in my eyes. Anything above that will be gravy, but even a .265/.315/.430, 15 HR season will get him to Fresno. That is the goal, but ideally we'd like to see him fly much higher. I just hope the organization prepares these guys mentally for the major changes that await them in Richmond. If they can keep things in perspective despite some struggles, I think it would go a long way for future development. You never want to see a player feeling completely defeated, whether on the mound or at the plate, but I can imagine that's what happens to some of the younger kids who hit a wall in Richmond.
DeleteUnrelated, what do you all think of the Cuban shortstop Aledmys Diaz? It sounds like we're rumored to have some interest, which is nice to hear. Might be some nice competition at either SS or 2B for the next couple years.
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I don't know much or anything about the Cuban prospects. Just gonna have to trust the scouts and the Giants decisionmaking process on that.
DeleteFrom the little that I've read, it sounds like he can handle the bat pretty well, but isn't so great on defense. Quite a few reports saying St. Louis is going to make him an offer, and he could be looking at $20-30M total. I don't see the Giants bidding anything close to that for his services, if they are actually interested. He could be a decent 2B though, for sure.
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