Thursday, August 30, 2012

Game Wrap 8/30/2012

This one was a total team effort as Ryan Vogelsong got off to a rough start falling behind 4-0 after 3 innings.  He recovered to pitch a full 6 innings and get the W as the offense picked him up and the bullpen shut the door over the last 3 innings.  Key Lines:

Angel Pagan- 1 for 5, 2B.  BA= .290.  Pagan drove in the first run for the Giants with an opposite field double down the 3B line.

Marco Scutaro- 2 for 5, 2B.  BA= .286.  Scooter just missed a HR to left center on one of his outs.

Pablo Sandoval- 1 for 4, SF.  BA= .285.  Pablo is hitting just .206 over his last 10 games, but he's driven in 9 runs.  He smoked a ball to RF that was too close to the fielder who caught it.  I think Pablo is about to break out of his slump.

Hunter Pence- 2 for 4, BB.  BA= .262.  Pence is 7 for his last 15 over his last 4 games.  Despite hitting just .229 in August, he has 21 RBI's for the month.  So yeah, he's made his contributions.  There are at least a couple of games the Giants likely would not have won without him.  It now looks like he's heating up for the stretch run.

Brandon Belt- 4 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .269.  Belt had actually been slumping a bit before tonight's game with just 5 hits in his last 26 AB's.  He definitely looked dialed in tonight!  Great D as always.

Joaquin Arias- 1 for 2, HR(4).  BA= .285.  Arias has a triple, double and HR in his last 3 games all against RHP's.  Tonight, he got a belt high fastball on the inside corner, pulled his arms in and almost tomahawked it out of the park.  He may be thin but he's wiry strong.  I think he has a lot more upside in him.  Giants need to find a way to keep him and play him  every day.  I could see him turning into an All-Star caliber player.

Ryan Vogelsong- 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 3.02.  Vogey again got BABIPed as his K/BB was excellent.  His teammates picked him up with their run production and he recovered with 3 strong innings 4-6 to get the W.

Guillermo Mota- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 5.11.  Nice inning for Mota.  The Giants can use more like this from him down the stretch.

The D'Backs shut out Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers 2-0 behind Ian Kennedy and their bullpen.  The Dodgers fall to 4.5 games behind the NL West leading Giants.  The D'Backs hold steady at 9.5 games back.

The Giants now travel to Chicago and have to get up for an early game tomorrow in the Windy City with Madison Bumgarner facing Chris Volstad.

20 comments:

  1. with vogey, the issue is mechanical and a little bit mental...he might be overthinking adjustments, which he wasnt during the majority of the season

    luv craw, but if the team insists on keeping pablo in, than arias must get the majority of the starts till he goes cold again

    giants biggest issue is lft. blanco is back to not hitting (giants have one of the streakiest of's in the majors) and frankie pegs is an st away from being totally ready for a staring position

    hope houston is the cure to whatever ailed pence...he looked good

    i like that scoots is announcing to the league that he is not as old as his birth certificate may state...but really gotta get riot in there, as no doubt if giants make post, he will be on roster

    i feel bad for tony

    http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=24356999

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    1. I think Vogey is pitching to contact to try and go deeper in games as well. Even with the early runs, he had a low pitch count through 4.

      Scutaro has been an excellent pickup. More left in the tank than anybody thought.

      Left field will get some sort of twist today. Notice I didn't say upgrade. That whole OF is streaky fo sho.

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  2. I like arias and we need to ride him while he is hot but all star player is probably jumping the gun considering he couldn't hit before this year and he is 27 years old with little time in the bigs.

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    1. Agree, thats a crazy comment by DrB. Arias has been with 3 teams, he's 27 and has not proven anything yet, was never really rated high as a prospect and his minor league stats aren't that impressive either. And yeah its the first year he's hit for a respectable average and the first time he's hit for power (had never hit one before) If the Giants go with the thinking he can be a starter next year, there gonna get the Andres Torres 2011 year from him.

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    2. Does the term post-hype sleeper mean anything to you? Arias was, once upon a time, a highly rated prospect.

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    3. I did not say Arias is GOING to turn into an All-Star performer, but I think it's possible. Think of him as a high ceiling low floor prospect.

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    4. I think its possible as well. The # of MLB PAs is very low (282 this season/557 for his career), he had to battle through some pretty bad injuries, and he is only 27. He put up approx 2300 PAs in the minors from ages 17-21, then injured, and then not quite good enough to break through, possibly because of more injury and recovery. He has the classic RH bat problem of having to adjust to RH pitching, not his strong suit. He has good fielding, good speed and sneaky power on his side. Arias has put in his time in the minors, even more PAs than Saber darling Jamey Carroll. Better hitter, less patient, if he adds walks to his resume he can be a very valuable commodity due to his strong arm. I think jack of all trades utility guy is a good floor, and then lets see whats what.

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    5. To give context to how good Arias once was as a prospect, the Rangers decided to select Arias over Robinson Cano when selecting prospects in the A-Rod trade. Unfortunately, the Rangers wanted to use him in the OF so he went out there and soon enough injured his shoulder badly, which apparently affected his subsequent performance greatly.

      Why I liked him as a pickup this season is that he fit the mode of the Chris Stewart pickup, both had a lot of success in AAA in making good contact with the bat (that is, avoiding strikeouts). I couldn't understand why either one was adrift like that but I liked both. Barr seems to be good at spotting these guys, Stewart, Arias, Torres, Blanco.

      Arias in his major league career had not hit for much, but he made good contact, suggesting that as he aged and physically matured, he would be able to hit for better average and power. Plus, in part-time play in his MLB career, he had hit .276/.314/.362/.676, which is actually not that bad for a utility MI, with some upside, heck, that's good enough for a starter on many teams.

      And he has flashed power and patience before. His 2008 MLB season, he showed off good power for an MI, projected to a 30-35 doubles and mid-teens triples, that pretty good. And early in his minor's career, when playing in more age appropriate leagues, he was actually taking a lot more walks than when he was battling against much older competition. So I would say he has some potential to boost his OBP enough to be above average and the power he's been showing has been shown before, but now he's more physically mature.

      To Shankbone's point, still only 27, so he's a fine utility MI candidate (viewed with pre-season lens) with a good performances in the past where if he puts it together because he's at the right age, could be more (backup insurance at 2B given Franchez's history).

      Back to Barr, what I noticed about his M.O. is that he keeps track of prospects who once were rated top prospects, even after they may have fallen down a lot. He then picks them off in later rounds, when draft prospects, or picks them up in the off-season when available, like Blanco and Arias (and I think Stewart was highly rated once).

      Also, I would add that he is another gift from KC, as he was in their system last season and they let him go.

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    6. Great background on Arias.

      I would love to see him back next year. The guy seems to be filling the 09-10 Uribe role nicely.

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    7. I would not fear losing Arias. He's arbitration eligible next season, so we technically control him until 2015, when he becomes a free agent for the 2016 season. I can't imagine that his agent would be stupid in his demands, the Giants gave their client a life-line on a major league career and gave him plenty of opportunities to play this season. Probably wil get a BIG raise, he's probably minimum this season, probably, I would guess, roughly $1M for 2013, though that could range from $0.7M to $1.0M, so maybe call it near-million. Schierholtz got $1.3M for this season, Burriss $0.625M, so that seems about right, I think, for Arias.

      What I would like to see is retaining Scutaro, but I'm not sure what he wants, plus he'll be 37 YO next season. I assume Theriot will want to stay too, he was not expecting to be the starter this season, at least not all season, as Franchez was the starter. Plus, I wonder if they will give Noonan a chance for next season, he hit OK, though not great, so perhaps they might keep him there for another year.

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  3. This is the dawning of the age of Joaquin Arias!!!!

    Yeah, actually, I agree with Logan. Too streaky to entertain any All Star thoughts yet. I mean, he's been cold this year too. But he's red hot right now. Bochy, START HIM!!! AWhat more does Bochy need???

    Sorry, Crawford. I mean, he has actually exceeded my expectations at the plate this year. But, geez, every AB, it's like he's struggling to tread water. He's just trying to survive. Arias is SLASHING. Get Arias in there!

    Anyway, Giants did what they had to do. They beat a team they had to beat. I really enjoy games in Minute Maid, empty like its been. You really hear the report of the bat, clearly hear the umps, etc. I'll kind of miss the Giants playing there every year going forward.

    I'm not going to be comfortable unless the Giants show in LA in October with a 4 game lead.

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    1. It would be interesting to hear the story behind the hot hitting by Arias.

      But sometimes it's better to just see the ball and hit the ball, and when you start asking the hitter why, and he starts thinking about what he's doing, the magic disappears.

      So somewhere there, there might be a reason, or two, why he's doing well now.

      Maybe that can happen to Crawford as well.

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    2. Yep, of course, hoping Crawford gets more comfortable.

      Belt could stand a little relaxation in the box as well.

      Not meaning to imply that hitting is anything but very difficult. But those guys look like they are having difficulty. Something to be said for a little swagger.

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    3. Apparently, when he is locked in, he is locked in, when he's not, he's not.

      I checked his stats from high to low to high etc and all through the season, his contact rate has been superlative, mostly over 85%, sometimes over 90%, so he suffered from a lot of BABIP wide swings, with his OPS by periods going .832 to .318 to 1.023 to .406 to .842 to .404 to 1.341. His BABIP followed: .393 to .125 to .409 to .185 to .407 to .240 to .463

      Admittedly, these periods, while wide ranges of times, roughly covers 10 game periods for him. So very small sample sizes. I would also note that his first downturn happened when he was shifted from starting at SS to starting at 3B, which was a totally new position for him. Once he got comfortable, he started hitting again but shortly after that Pablo returned from the DL and Arias went back to bench player. His cold streaks roughly ran for about two weeks, but BOY!, what wide swings!

      The good news is that his hot streaks have gotten longer with each streak (2 weeks, one week, 4 weeks, 4 weeks) as well as games (10 G/8 starts, 6 starts, 16 games/8 starts, 20 games/11 starts). If you tie his two last hot streaks together, he hit .351/.387/.559/.945 (.387 BABIP; 86% contact rate; 46 games, 25 starts) from June 18 to now. If you count everything from when he got comfortable at 3B, he has hit .304/.338/.459/.797 (.325 BABIP; 88%; 69 games, 47 starts) from May 21 to August 30 (i.e. dismiss his hot start and drop when switched to 3B). That is still a very good batting line period, let alone from an MI.

      As I noted above, he's a skilled player, his problem has been translating his success from the minors to the majors. And really, look at him, he's a stick, and he was probably thinner when younger, so I suspect that he was overpowered by a lot of pitchers when he was younger. But as I noted above, when he was competing against players his age, he was able to show some patience as well as some power. So what he is doing right now is fulfilling the potential that he flashed in the minors.

      Armchair psychologist, but I think it is Bochy's nature that is helping him gain the confidence that he belongs here. I think some players struggle because subconsciously, they are in awe and sabotage their performance with too much thinking. It is kind of like Wizard of Oz giving that diploma to the Scarecrow: he always had it in him, but needed the validation from someone in authority. Bochy, by continually using Arias, showed confidence in his abilities, and Arias is starting to put stuff together.

      It is this nature why Bochy will not just sit down Crawford so that he can start Arias full-time. Per the comments, Arias is not a proven all-star. And as up and down people say Crawford has been, he's also been making a nice climb with his bat over this season, so if you just shut him down, he might not handle that well and he could be our starting SS for the rest of the decade if he can continue to hit well, but now you crushed his ego just to get Arias in. What if Arias crash-dives and don't get back up?

      So Bochy will still play Crawford some, but go with his gut when to start Arias, so as not to stall Crawford's improvements this season offensively nor kill his motivation to follow Bochy's orders in following seasons. I guess maybe that is where Bochy's military background pays off, the military has to be masters at motivation, I would imagine. He's also clearly looking to get him in other spots too, I would think that Pablo and Scutaro will get time off, both to keep them fresher and to give Arias more starts. There has been talk of LF, but given his prior experience, I think bouncing him between SS and 3B (Shankbone noted Sandoval's struggles, and I found that Pablo has not been hitting LHP well, so Arias could steal ABs from 3B in a semi-platoon there too, maybe he alternates between SS and 3B vs. LHP).

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  4. News on call-ups (heard on KNBR, reported by Baggs):

    Huff, Loux, Penny activated from DL to join team tomorrow.

    Also, contracts for Jean Machi and Xavier Nady purchased from Fresno. And Brett Pill recalled from Fresno as well.

    We need two spots on 40 man to bring up the two. If Franchez is moved to 60-day DL list, that would free up one spot. They will probably have to DFA someone to free up the other spot. My guess would be Hector Correa, who has done nothing this season, and is just returning from an injury, so he could be it.

    It was also noted that Nady probably starts tomorrow.

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    1. Oh, to be clear, that was my speculation on the 40 man ramifications, nothing was noted on KNBR. And i've been monitoring CSN, nothing there, Baggs must have tweeted it (but I don't have my app up).

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    2. Thanks for the info/spec OGC.

      Was really hoping for something to come out of left field, to, well, you know, play left field.

      But, I guess you gotta dance with who brung you.

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    3. Well, I imagine the bounty for Torres was bigger than Sabean wanted. Soriano was out of the question. Frenchie is questionable as well as expensive, not to mention Dayton Moore. Slim pickins. So we get this...Bruce Bochy hintes strongly that the Cal alumnus and Salinas native could find himself starting immediately in left field. Go Golden Bears!

      Per OGCs point about contact above, that is the big issue right now with Blanco. He has been digging himself out some, but he is striking out a ton.

      Could be Correa, but I wouldn't be shocked with Adrianza getting the boot either.

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    4. Just out: http://www.csnbayarea.com/baseball-san-francisco-giants/giants-talk/Giants-promote-Nady-five-others?blockID=766191&feedID=2796

      Nothing much new, other than more info on Nady, plus Baggs gave a possibility for opening 40-man space.

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    5. Nooooo! Not my adopted Giants player!

      Ehire's season wasn't all bad. He had a really bad May, which appears to be a BABIP issue, .214 in May, roughly .300 in other months, then August's .243. Also, home cooking stinks for him, .303 wOBA on road, .229 at home. Still, 80% contact rate for the season, so while not good, not bad either, and a little young for league at 23. And we still need someone for SS and 2B in the future, as much as I like Crawford and Panik, plus Noonan, none of them are proven yet and you don't know when a prospect might peter out.

      I think Correa's a better bet, as we have a lot of options in the pitching corps, though wouldn't be surprised if some other team picks him up.

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