Over the last 2 seasons, the Giants offense has been affected by several statistical anomalies that defy easy explanation. For instance, sabermetric theory, backed by voluminous statistical evidence, would say that BA with RISP will eventually regress to a mean that is not much different than overall BA. Yet, the Giants continue to defy those odds. Another anomaly that is becoming more uncomfortable as the days and weeks of the season go by is the Giants hitting at home vs the road. Believe it or not, the Giants lead or nearly lead all of MLB in several offensive categories on the road, including runs per game. Let's say that again to make sure we all understand it: The Giants are MLB LEADERS in several offensive categories on the road! At home, they are near the botttom in those same offensive categories. Over time, their park adjusted offense at home and away should regress to being approximately equal. These things don't always regress all the way to a mean over the course of one season. Another factor is that psychological barriers can take hold in a lineup or clubhouse and delay the inevitable regression.
Tonight, the Giants failed to generate any significant offense against a pitcher who didn't appear to have exceptional stuff and the result was another loss despite more than adequate pitching. Key Lines:
Brandon Crawford- 2 for 3. BA= .240. Crawford's BA is inching up as his UZR remains steady. 7 hits in his last 4 games. 2 of the Giants 3 hits tonight.
Tim Lincecum- 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 5.35. A QS from Lincecum even though he did not look as sharp has he can be. I started watching in the 3'rd inning and he seemed to be all over the place with his pitches in innings 3 and 4.
Tyler Chatwood(Rockies)- 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K's. ERA= 5.06. The ump had a very low K zone tonight and was forcing the Giants to swing at pitches below the zone. Giants hitters are not going to do well in that environment. Timmy probably had a similar zone but he's more of a high ball pitcher except when he's bouncing his splitter in the dirt.
The Dodgers beat the Marlins 5-2 to pull back into a tie for first place with the Giants in the NL West. The Nats pounded the D'Backs 9-1 so the snakes stay 4 games back.
Matt Cain takes the mound tomorrow against Rockies Rookie Lefty Drew Pomeranz.
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DrB, forgive me for posting this again under this comment section. But I think your comment leads to the Giants lack of power in their own ballpark. What's missing?
ReplyDeleteDrB: Thanks for explaining yourself multiple times. Didn't mean to raise your blood pressure.
Kay, it's a free world with free opinions. Would you prefer the dystopian world of group think ala 1984? Feel secure in your own opinions.
OGC: Usually, you stay fact based. Obviously, I hit a nerve. You're better when you back up your opinions with stats. The Beltran deal was dumb for the long term health of the ballclub. I understand why Sabean did it for the fans. Too bad most do not understand why he did it.
I do not denigrate Duvall. That would be DrB, not me. Another example of hitting the nerve. Don't mean to skew you guys. Just want to get the facts straight. I am very familiar with the various levels of minor league ball. I attend many major and minor leagues games. I have played the game and I think I know a player when I see one.
OBTW ricky is 22 years old and Duvall is 23.....check their numbers too. Then come back and explain your 3rd paragraph.
Regarding DrB's connection with oropesa, I'm more than well aware of his connection. And I tout DrB to the many boards I comment on. Many here probably got here through me. Your welcome.
I realize I touched a nerve. I'm not here to create a MCC or sfgiants.com crazy fest. I appreciate the work DrB puts into this blog.
So let me be clear. Duvall is a prospect. Show him some respect.
I'm sorry, Anon, but your comment on the other entry was hostile and disrespectful. Maybe you didn't mean it that way, but that's the way it came across to me and, obviously, other readers. You were not just offering an alternative opinion, but attacking me and the blog.
DeleteI welcome different points of view, but do not welcome personal attacks. I'll let it go this time with the rebuttals but if it continues, I'll hit the button on it.
Of course Duvall is a prospect. If I say I have concerns about his BA and D that's not the same as saying he's not a prospect. He obviously has one outstanding tool, his power. That has the potential to take him a long way. I do have concerns that his contact and D issues will get exposed big time when he hits the EL.
As for Ricky, once again, my comments on him will continue to be muted out of respect for the relationship I have with his family. I have fully disclosed this relationship and freely admit it is a cause of bias.
Finally, this is a blog whose purpose is to chronicle my thoughts on San Francisco Giants baseball. I am not a beat writer or reporter. I have never, ever claimed to be unbiased in my thinking or comments. In fact, I have been very open that I have a particular point of view. I am an unabashed Giants fan. I strongly believe the the current Giants management is doing a good job and has been unfairly criticized around the internet. The credibility and bias issue is a straw man. My credibility is in the eyes of the readers. If they don't think what I have to say is credible or worthwhile they'll stop coming here.
Dr.Delete, because I point to Pence as the main reason G's now share 1st place, and the fact that unlike Cain who has a plaque,the only plaque Pence will have is the plaque on his teeth.If the G's wanted a .140 hitter,Eli and Huff are still available.Pence will erode the G's team morale with his obscene contract. Ian.
ReplyDeleteI've always liked Hunter Pence as a player. He is not being overpaid based on his historical numbers. After the trade, he was literally greeted by the Giants and their fans as the saviour of he team. I have never seen an acquired player get that kind of a reception before he's even put on a uniform: Greeted by Lou Seal in the parking lot. Greeted by Amy G in the dugout. By players in the clubhouse. All on the TV postgame show.
DeletePence looks like he's trying to win this thing all by himself up there trying to jerk everything out of the park. It's causing him to fly open too soon and the results speak for themselves. Whether it's all do to trying too hard, maybe. He's been struggling since June so maybe some of the mechanical issues I've pointed out started before he got here, but the eagerness to help the new team and live up to his welcome certainly aren't helping.
Like Beltran last year, I think Pence will come out of it and be a big contributor down the stretch. Unlike last year, I'm hoping the Giants remain in a position where it will carry them into the post-season.
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
ReplyDeleteAll 4 of these comments have gone way too far. If u don't like the blog go somewhere else but no need for personal shots
ReplyDeleteDrB don't let these guys get you down. I appreciate your writing and insight, so please keep doing as you are doing. I would be really disappointed if this blog became too snarky. Thanks for your hardwork. Lastly, fellow commenters if you are upset with how this blog is run please just stop reading and visit another site. I visit everyday and would be frustrated if somebody made this experience too much of a chore for DrB that he no longer willing to post. Please be considerate and don't take everything personally.
ReplyDeleteThanks,
Clint in Redlands
Logan and Clint,
DeleteThanks for the support.
BTW, Tyler Chatwood is from Redlands East Valley HS. I think he was drafted out of HS by the Angels.
Dr. Delete? From a random internet guy, I appreciate all the work you've done DrB.
ReplyDeleteBTW, Grant has a good take on the Giants problems hitting at home over on McCovey Chronicles. I pretty much agree with his take.
ReplyDeleteI think it's mostly a sample size anomaly but it's now gone on long enough that it could be getting into some hitters' heads which tends to extend the anomaly and make it more than a statistical blip.
Giants need Pablo back ASAP as he seems to hit well in his home park.
No one's been more critical of Pence than myself.I have ambivalent feelings about him. The frustrated child in me wants him to fail,but that hurts the G's, my team since 1962.It would be bad enough if he was getting a 10th of his salary but he's making super $ and obviously pressing as a Giant and has been since June.The longer this goes on,the more I feel for the guy.He's thinking too much,that's ruining his stance mechanics.Let's hope he gets it together for the post season,if they get there.He has until then to work on his swing with the coaches. There's no one I'd like to see succeed more than Pence in the post season. Ian.
ReplyDeleteIan,
DeleteWell on this we can agree. I am also not a Pence fan. Just don't think his mojo will mix with the Giants. Just reminds me of a freakish over-amped Texas frat boy. His D when I have watched him play RF at ATT was really bad. Not stat based, not even baseball based, but that's my biased opinion (popular on this site lately). Note I really thought the Pence power bat would light you up, Ian.
That said, Pence represents what the Giants need. RH power, who has in the past produced avg and XBH at ATT park (I know, SSS). I think it was a good trade for what the Giants gave up. I am patient and will give Pence the time to settle in and make a difference this year. Let's hope he can do it in Sept/October.
Pence now has 4 doubles and 3 singles,no triples,no dingers in 47 ab's,7for 49=.149avg,1 BB's,12 K's.I do hope he gets his HR swing by the playoffs. Problem is, the way he's struggling,G's may not make playoffs. I love the jack because jacks,unlike doubles/triples,eliminate any chance of stranding risp.Will Pence be able to go yard before October?Hunter is a 49er,ok,a.149er.I know,kick a guy when he's down.I'm a rascal. Ian.
ReplyDeleteOK Ian,
DeleteWe get your point about Pence. Is it possible for you to make a point without running it into the ground? After awhile it becomes spam in the comments section. Please find another point to make next post or I'll start deleting the repetitious stuff.
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