Monday, July 9, 2012
All Questions
It's been awhile since we did a Q/A thread. Since it's the All-Star break and since I don't care much about the All-Star Game, it seems like a good time. Post any and all baseball related questions in the comments and I will do my best to answer. Feel free to join in the discussion. Anything baseball related is fair game: Giants, of course, prospects, trade deadline, fantasy, even the All-Star Game! Keep it baseball only, though, please.
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Do you think the Giants will trade for a starting pitcher or a bt or even a closer?
ReplyDeleteCould be any of the above. I would put the priorities as 1. Bat, OF or 1B. 2. RP 3. SP. I would have said no way on the starter until I read that the Giants have a scout following Grienke. Not sure what that means, though.
DeleteI have the skeleton of a post on potential bat targets I will try to post before the break is over.
Name the top 5 position prospects in the system. Name the top 5 pitchers in the system.
ReplyDeleteTop 5 position prospects: 1. Tommy Joseph 2. Gary Brown 3. Y Cabrera 4. Joe Panik 5. Ricky Oropesa
DeleteTop 5 Pitching prospects: 1. Chris Stratton 3. Kyle Crick 4. Clayton Blackburn 5. Adalberto Mejia.
Stratton is ahead of the other 4 only due to proximity to the majors as a college draftee.
You forget 1 pitcher. Who is #2?
DeleteMove em all up one and put, oh, Seth Rosin at #5.
DeleteYou think hes better then Agosta?
DeleteI don't know if Rosin is better than Agosta. I do know there is generally a big dropoff in talent from the first to second rounds, so I'll give the edge to Rosin based on pro experience, size and known velocity.
DeleteHave we even signed Agosta yet?
DeleteNo announcements yet (that I have seen), but both Agosta and Williamson have tweeted they are heading to Arizona.
DeleteDoc, Rosin over Hembree and/or Bochy?
DeleteClose call on Rosin/Hembree/Bochy/Kickham. Could put the names in a hat and draw one out and it would be a very reasonable choice for #5.
DeleteThanks!! I never really put Rosin in the class as the other three (forgot about Kickham). I will need to watch him a bit more closely.
DeleteSad to see Hembree drop so dramatically. Coming into the season, I had him as the org's #4 prospect overall (Brown, Panik, Joseph). Are we (read, "I") judging him too harshly for his recent struggles when they very well could have been injury related or due to the org reportedly telling him to work exclusively on secondary stuff?
Addendum...
DeleteLooking back, you had him #4 as well...
I know pitchers come back from injuries better than in the past, but injury is still huge. TJ surgery for a prospect is usually a 2 year setback in development and a lot of them never fully regain their velocity or command, so yeah, the injury to Hembree is a factor in dropping his stock. Not saying he is bound for TJ but any injury to a young pitcher is a red flag to me. Think of Cain, Lincecum and Bumgarner. None of them had a significant injury, well, Cain had the stress reaction that proved to be not as serious as it seemed at the time, but if you look at starting pitcher prospects who make the show around the league, the vast majority do so without suffering significant injury along the way.
DeleteWasn't it announced that it was a minor injury and he should be back in a cpl weeks? Have I missed a later development?
DeleteWhat do you think the Giants should do to address Timmy's issues?
ReplyDelete1. Put him on the DL for exhaustion, hangnail, whatever they can come up with.
Delete2. Thorough medical evaluation.
3. Insist he get on a prescribed diet and conditioning program.
How do you feel about Gary Brown's progress? Do you still think he'll be average (or perhaps more) and when?
ReplyDeletePanik, same questions.
Who among the prospects do you think might have an impact in 2013? 2014?
Prospect pitchers, ranked by your view of their potential, top 3-5.
OF: Odds that Giants sign Melky? Pagan? Nate Schierholtz's future with Giants?
Thoughts so far on George Kontos?
1. Gary Brown is right on schedule for an expected adjustment to AA/EL and it's challenges for hitters. The struggle will make him stronger in the long run. I think he will be a .260-.300 hitter with gap power and an occasional HR with 20-30 SB's and plus D in CF. A 3-4 WAR player. Very good return for a #24 draft pick.
Delete2. Disappointed in Panik although his peripheral stats suggest he can still be good.
3. 2013? Maybe Brown or Peguero. Watch out for Noonan. 2014? Definitely Brown. Stratton, Panik? Ricky O? Hembree/Rosin/Kickham?
4. See above for top 5 pitchers.
5. I have no idea what to think about the future of Melky and Pagan. Would it be better to sign one or both long term or offer them a 1 year $13 M deal and take the draft picks when someone else overpays? Glad I'm not Sabes on those decisions. I tend to lean toward letting them go for the draft picks. Gotta think Nate's Giants career is done for all practical purposes.
6. Love George Kontos. I liked the trade for CStew at the time and like it even more now.
Surkamp in either 2013 or 2014 if he can get healthy. Ditto Roger K.
DeleteBreaking news related to #5: MLBTR is reporting that the Giants have their sights set on Michael Bourn as a FA sign this next offseason. Hope they don't overvalue his steals.
DeleteWhat are your thoughts on trading for Wandy Rodriguez?
ReplyDeleteI'm not a huge fan of Wandy, but anything would be an upgrade on Timmy right now. I'm not at all convinced Timmhy is going to turn it around this year.
DeleteCould the Giants pull off a trade for Jed Lowrie and what would it take?
ReplyDeleteI have to think Lowrie is untouchable.
DeleteHave you changed your mind about Darvish after his solid first half start? Have you watched him pitch yet?
ReplyDeleteI've seen Darvish pitch a few innings. Great stuff. Doesn't have a strong grasp of where it's going all the time.
DeleteI still would not want him at the price paid.
Darvish K/9= 10+. BB/9= 4.65. He's Jonathan Sanchez at a higher cost!
DeleteHave to agree on Darvish and I think he really benefits from pitching with the Rangers run support. On the Giants he would be Dirty at Zito $$$.
DeleteWhat prospects are most likely to go at the deadline?
ReplyDeleteDepends on if the Giants go for the throat this year or not. There are several pretty good hitter who I think could be had for someone in the Nate/Gillaspie/Pill category. If they go all out for someone like Grienke or Hamels, then its Katie bar the door. We're talking Brown/Joseph/Crick territory there!
DeleteWhat do you think of Chris Heston's domination of AA is he a legitimate prospect or a AA mirage?
ReplyDeleteI know I'm not DrB but, I liked Heston last year, but he is a little old.
DeletePlus hes been getting hit hard as of late
DeleteHeston has great pitchability. He may be lacking in basic tools to be more than a fringe #5 starter at the MLB level.
DeleteDr B.,
ReplyDeleteOn the subject of Timmy, do you buy into the thought that THC may be causing weight fluctuations or lack of focus?
I always thought that baseball teams have specific conditioning and nutrition programs, but is it your understanding that each individual fends for themselves in this regard?
I vote for Timmy to be admitted to the MOD service on a weekend.... Just an insider's tip.
I would prefer to not get into speculation about whether Timmy is using or not using substances.
DeleteI just think Timmy is a guy who likes to march to the beat of his own drummer. We know that when he wanted to gain weight last year, he went about it by gorging himself at In-N-Out. We have hints from comments dad has made that he is not exactly enthusiastic about conditioning. We also know that Timmy wanted to be thinner this year. IMO, he looked way too thin from what I could see on TV in Sunday.
I think Timmy has an idea of what he wants to do with nutrition and conditioning but is doing it on his own and he likely doesn't know how to do it right. Swimming may be the greatest exercise in the world, but I have to say Timmy is the first I've heard of any baseball players using that for conditioning and you have to wonder if that's the right approach. It certainly sounds like something Timmy came up with on his own. I'm just suggesting that rather than trying to do these things on his own, he should use some of his loot to hire nutritional and conditioning pros to get him on a program, even to the extent of hiring a personal chef and trainer to accomplish it. He just has too much at stake both in terms of reputation and money down the road.
I'm sure teams provide resources that players can use for nutrition and conditioning, but from everything I've read, most players do it on their own. There is just a lot of evidence from Zito and Wilson working out together at Zito's house on offseason, to Pablo's experience to Rowand's mountain biking to Timmy's swimming.
- When does Brett Bochy surpass Hembree as the heir-apparent to the closer position (whoever that is)?
ReplyDelete- What do you think about Adam Duvall? Anything more than a backup, if he even makes it that far?
- Villalona - does anyone reasonably expect anything from him?
Love your blog! Keep up the great work!
Thank you. Glad you like the blog.
DeleteI think it is mistake to pick out one prospect and label him "closer of the future." Closers can come from underrated setup guys you trade for, pick up out of the dumpster, from minor league starters or from minor league relievers. Very few come from a single dedicated closer track. I would currently list Hembree, Bochy and Rosin as the top future closer candidates, and don't sleep on another white whale of mine, Jose Valdez.
Adam Duvall hits for power, but has struggled with his BA in San Jose. I was unimpressed with his D in the 2 games I personally saw.
Villalona is a wild card. Hard to project anything for him until hi legal situation is cleared up, then he has to prove he is more than a 22 yo playing rookie ball.
For some reason I just don't see Bochy or Rosin as a future closer. Stranger things have happened though.
DeleteGood news is we have about 6 or so power arms that could someday make a good closer.
Cody Hall, Bryce Bandilla (though I hope he stays as a starter), Derek Law, Stephen Johnson, Steven Okert, and Ian Gardeck. All can dial it up to mid 90's and in some cases upper 90's. That's a lot of power arms to chose from.
First off, thank you for all the time you spend on this blog. I love being able to check in and get a complete minors snapshot in one read. Really really good stuff.
ReplyDeleteGoing back to the Timmy conversation. What is your opinion of trading him? We have Cain and Madbum locked up to solidify the top of the rotation. It would free up $22 million for next year and hopefully we could get a nice package in return assuming other teams aren't scared off by his struggles. I think Molina hit the nail on the head that his fastba doesn't have that late movement into right handed hitters anymore and I don't know I that's something that can come back or not. This combined with his inability to locate his secondary pitches has me very concerned.
I don't know if this would even be possible but maybe Seattle would bs interested in him since he's a local kid and we could get back Ackley and Hultzen. Obviously this is just a stab in the dark but should we consider parting with our prized 2 time cy young winner for the right package?