The 2011 version of the Giants offense showed up in this one. They somehow managed to scratch out 3 runs on just 4 hits and it wasn't enough to overcome a BrewCrew assault against the bullpen. Key Lines:
Aubrey Huff- 1 for 2, HR, BB. BA= .429. The day goes to Huffster in the starting 1B battle although Brett Pill got a double and Brandon Belt hit the ball hard.
Gregor Blanco- 1 for 2, BB, 2 SB. BA= .222. Blanco shows what speed can do for you, even from a weak hitter. He turned a hit and a walk into 2 runs even without hitting support from the rest of the lineup. Can the Giants afford to keep both Blanco and Burriss on the roster though?
Matt Cain- 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K. Uneventful first outing for Cainer.
Matt Yourkin- 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, GO/AO= 6/1. Big AAA veteran LHP. I would have a lot of confidence if Yourkin had to make an emergency start or two.
Seth Rosin- 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K's, HBP. Rosin gives up a dinger to Travis Ishikawa, but otherwise strikes out the side.
There seems to be some significant trepidation about Buster Posey running the bases. He practiced sliding on a pad and ran on the grass at the outer edge of the IF. I'm not a fan of headfirst sliding, but in Buster's case, that might be the less risky approach.
Brian Wilson is slated to make his first spring training game appearance on Sunday, March 11, in a game I have tickets to attend.
Barry Zito debuts his new delivery in today's game against the Hated Ones.
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DrB,
ReplyDeleteYou muse "can the Giants afford to keep both Blanco and Burriss"...Just thinkin about the roster, can they keep either? I'm just wondering..If they go with 12 pitchers (say, both Hensley and Mota)..you have 2C, Huff/Pill, Sanchez/Fontenot, Crawford/theriot, Sandoval, Cabrera/Pagan/nate/Belt....Unless one of Pill or belt doesn't make it, there's no room for either when healthy....Perhaps if Sanchez opens on the DL, we will see Burriss, but otherwise it's hard to do..Just tryingto figure this team out..
SteveVA
Well, there's 5 reserves. 1 C, Brett Pill seems like a lock as do the cajuns. That leaves 1 slot for Burriss, Blanco or Belt. I asssume Belt will either be starting or in Fresno, but if he's starting, that would bump Huff out to a reserve role, so if Belt is on the roster then Burriss and Blanco would seem to be gone, unless they dump one of the cajuns which is possible but would they actually do that?
DeleteI know it is just spring training and it is early and all that good stuff but my god, Affeldt looks like he is in his midseason sucky form already! This guy costs 5 million and gives up long balls like toothbrushes at the dentist office, every visit!! I can't wait to hear back from the Affeldt defenders because this guy is on my watch list this year as one of the moves I was against and am bent on proving was a bad sign! So let me have it OGC and Dr. B, tell me about how awesome it is to have another lefty in the pen who is a proven vet who sometimes looks good but most of the time is a liability. I would rather take my chances with a young kid on the cheap then suffer through Affeldt's wildness and sporadic effectiveness. At least when Runzler or Yourkin or whoever else gives up a HR it doesn't cost 5 mil and you know the leash is much shorter where as Affeldt will suck for months on end before they figure out he just doesn't have it anymore.
ReplyDeleteI completely disagree with the premise that Affeldt is only sporadically effective. He is, in fact, very effective most of the time and sporadically wild. As for yesterday's game, my god, we haven't even completed 1 week of spring training games yet!
DeleteJust to back that up with some numbers, in Affeldt's 3 seasons in SF, including an admittedly subpar 2010, he's put up an ERA of 2.70 with a WHIP of 1.29 in 174 IP. He's also allowed just 12 HR in those 174 IP, or 1 HR per 14.5 IP.
DeleteThose numbers are hardly those of the gas can you portray in your comment.
As for Runzler, he's got a sore shoulder and Yourkin is a AAA lifer. No GM in his right mind who is trying to contend would entrust even LOOGY duties on those two.
In 2009 Affeldt was amazing. Since then he has been significantly worse then amazing. This is one of those situations where I believe the stat line lies and instead of trusting numbers you should trust your eyes. How many games did he have like yesterday where he gave up 3 unearned runs? Those don't hurt his ERA but he still gave up that bomb and looked wild and ineffective. He seems to have a knack for getting enough guys out in less then important situations and when they need him to come through in a tight game he poops the bed. If you think you can trust him in a big situation then I will be the guy who goes nah nah nah nah and I told you so the first time he gives up a lead or lets a game get away that was once in hand.
DeleteThat is a pretty high standard there Pato. Is it the budget part that bugs you or Affeldt specifically? The Angels have Scott Downs and Hisanori Takahashi and are still looking for more lefties. Toronto, a saber friendly workplace, spent 4.5MM on Darren Oliver.
DeleteOn the trust my eyes front I agree he was a gas can early in 2011. He corrected something and was lights out until pattygate. He didn't have a good 2010. But his splits are all over the place - 2009-11 he was a loogy, split the difference and then hammered righties. I guess relievers have small sample sizes to help with that.
Pato, it doesn't get bigger than Johnny Sanchez getting ejected, fires blazing and in came Affeldt. That is a big situation. So if he breaks our heart in a critical late season game you can nah nah, but early season I think it's a pretty high standard.
Pato,
DeleteOK, fair enough. ERA's can be misleading because they don't count unearned runs and inherited runners scoring. Affeldt's WHIP was 1.15 last year compared to 1.17 in 2009. Affeldt was a very good pitcher last year!
Maybe I am comparing him to the standard he set in 2009 or to Lopez which may be unfair but I guess my biggest problem is him making 5 mil. I don't trust him late in games, he was great when it counted against the Phillies but maybe that wasn't as pressure packed being as it was in the 3rd inning and not the 7th or 8th. When the season starts, keep an eye on when Bochy uses him because my guess is that Boch has just as much confidence in him as I do and won't let him see a tough situation unless absolutely necessary. If he is put in a tough situation then let me know how confident you feel in him getting the job done while you are sitting on the edge of your seat praying that he doesn't prove me right.
DeletePato, Cot's contract's is your friend. Affeldt has always been expensive. 2/8MM for 09-10, they tore it up after a year and made it 2/9.5MM and the famous 5MM option for 2012.
DeleteHe has been a pretty solid reliever, definite Wilson insurance because they don't have faith in Casilla despite the high heat. Also, in Sabean's mind, he brought in Affeldt in 09 to stop the leaky pen and its been a huge strength since then. I would not be surprised if Sabean credits Affeldt with that stability.
Last, the depth of the pen allows Bochy to rest as well as mix and match his guys. It is one of the things he does best. Yes, Lopez pitches to a couple too many RHH. Yes, Romo gets pulled too quick at times. But those are minor complaints, and I don't think Bochy would do that with the season on the line.
Pato,
DeleteUnfair to compare Affeldt to Lopez? Well yes, it might be unfair to Lopez. Pato, you might want to look up a few stats before you go saying stuff like that. Take your pick of stats, ERA, WHIP, BAA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB. Affeldt outpitched Lopez last year.
Affeldt is an asset to the team. If you look up the contracts of comparable LH relievers, and there aren't many out there, Affeldt is being paid right about what he should be, maybe a bit less.
Yes, I've seen him blow a game here and there, but I have as much confidence in him as any reliever on the Giants staff, including Wilson, and the Giants bullpen is very good.
Pato, or P-Duck as we call him over at Lefty's, is on a hyperbole role again. Sure Affeldt likes his hamburger helper a little too much, but laying on the sauce on this one Pato ain't going to cut it.
ReplyDeleteDoc B nails it; Affeldt is a good investment by the Giants not only by the numbers, but also as Wilson insurance. Strategically the Giants require a shut down bullpen to maintain their run-prevention pitching dominance across nine innings. Pato, then you can bitch about the offense scratching out three runs all you want.
Love to see the Giants beat LA today!
I actually am kinda excited about the offense, only thing that could screw it up at this point is Huff IMO. I do not see the whole Affeldt being insurance for Wilson thing either. If you ask most experts and go by what they did last year, either Casilla or Romo would fill in before Affeldt if Beard can't go. You nailed it Monterey, I love getting on a role and bitching but I feel pretty strongly about my statements here. The stats for Affeldt may have been better then Lopez last year but Lopez was the guy that got put in all the tough situations while Affeldt was the 6th or 7th inning guy and my memories although questionable how accurate they are, are of Affeldt looking shaky at best most outings. Time will tell and maybe in a few months you guys can either tell me how wrong I was or I will get a chance to do the I told you so thing.
ReplyDeleteI don't see Affeldt as Wilson insurance. That's Shankbone. 50% of the top 100 OPS's last year were put up by LH or switch hitters while LH make up less than 25% of pitchers. Most switch hitters are better from the left side because that's where they get most of the AB's. You have to think about L-R matchups in late inning, high leverage situations. You can't just look at WAR and set a value on lefty relievers. The cost is inflated by the leverage and by resource scarcity.
DeleteIts also straight from Sabean's mouth. Whether you choose to believe him or not is a different story, but he affirmed the distrust of Casilla and the concern with Wilson's arm in a recent interview.
DeleteI agree with the WAR argument and also turning Switch hitters around. I don't have enough info to know whether that is part of Bochy's strategy with letting Lopez face righties. I think during the season he wants to stretch Lopez out, but Lopez does not have good splits against RHH. I trust Bochy to make more aggressive switches with the season on the line during the stretch run and playoffs.
Another scenario where the LHP might face a RH batter is if you have an inning where the opposing team has L,R,L hitters due up. You'd want the lefty to face the 2 LHB's and take a chance on him facing the middle batter so you don't have to burn up 2 extra pitchers in the inning.
DeleteTotally. And then there's the Charlie Manuals of the world who do you the favor of putting Utley and Howard back to back. Depending on the batter it is worth leaving him in. If the batter is Pujols followed by... oh wait, the Angels are trying to trade Abreau and don't really have any LH bats. This strategy is flawed! (Joking) (They do have some switch hitters - the table setters and Kenry Morales)
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