Saturday, February 25, 2012

Spring Training Update: Baer Baits the Pitchfork Mob

It was obviously a slow news day in Scottsdale, so when Larry Baer showed up to spring training, the reporters were asking questions and breathlessly trying to interpret the tea leaves. Matt Cain had been asked about contract negotiations and said he was looking for "fair market value." His agent said he wouldn't accept a "hometown discount." When Larry Baer was asked about whether the Cain and the Giants could agree on "fair market value." He somewhat clumsily replied, "to be determined, to be determined" after a long pause.

OK, listen up here team! Yes, it's unfortunate that negotiations are starting to leak into the press, but there is absolutely no surprise here. Nobody in their right mind who is involved with negotiations at this level is going to capitulate in the press before the deal is cut. Nobody in this business gives or gets a hometown discount. Does that mean Matt Cain is going to hit the road if he does not get the full amount he could get if he becomes a free agent? Yes, that is possible, but in no way a metaphysical certitude, as John McGlaughlin would say.

Matt Cain is not a free agent for one more full season of play. A lot can happen in 1 season, especially to pitchers. There are no guarantees that he will be the same pitcher at the end of the season he is today. That is the reason why Matt Cain might want to accept a "discount." Not because he has warm fuzzy feelings for the Giants. It's not a "hometown discount." It's a security discount! It is also the reason why the Giants have every reason to not accept a deal that extends Cain at full "fair market value." If that's what the Giants have to pay, well, they can pay that just as well next offseason after they know Cain's arm has survived the rigors of another season. The Giants are offering the security of a multi-year extension and taking on the risk of Cain getting injured or having a decline in production. They have every right to expect a discount in return for that.

Of course, the risk for the Giants, if Cain is wanting full open market value, is that if they don't meet that, they could lose him altogether. They then have to weigh that risk against the risk of overpaying on yet another big, long term contract and consider the alternative ways they could re-allocate the money they otherwise would have spent on Cain's contract.

That's a lot of weighing to do for both sides, and yes, the monetary and emotional cost of relocating has to be a factor for Matt Cain. The complexity of those calculations are why so many of these deals end up not getting done even when it seems like a win-win. My guess is that both sides, in this case, want to get a deal done, and want it badly enough, that it will happen in a way that satisfies everybody. The more that gets said to the press, though, makes it more likely someone will say something that offends the other side and make a deal more difficult to get done.

There was also more intrigue regarding the A's desire to move to San Jose. Baer was asked if the issue was down to negotiations over compensation. After another long pause, his answer was "no, I wouldn't say that," or something to that effect. The extended silence on this issue is certainly odd and really makes you wonder what's going on behind the scenes. If Selig's mission on his visit to the Giants was to tell them that it's a done deal, you would think it would have been wrapped up by now. You have to think the Giants must have a hole card of two that is preventing MLB from pulling the trigger. It wouldn't shock me at all if this stalls out until the Dodger sale is complete and then MLB moves to find a buyer for the A's. Then again, it wouldn't shock me if they announced the San Jose deal tomorrow.

Stay tuned. The plots are thickening!

20 comments:

  1. The SJ stuff is going to get hot. Selig is always behind the scenes trying to build consensus. I'm happy to see some pluck from the Giants.

    Nice talk down on Cain. If he wasn't my favorite player I would be cooler about it. I just see him as integral to the Giants future.

    Jeffrey Gibbs got rocked by Clemson yesterday. The very well named Spencer Kieboom went Kie-Boom. Clemson's 3B Richie Shaffer is a guy to keep a close watch on.

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  2. Drb,

    Excellent analysis on the Matt Cain situation. The complexity of these type of contract talks is the reason why it won't surprise me either way how it turns out. I'm hoping they get the deal done of course. Cain is one of the best players on the team, but I read an article recently by Henry Schulman saying that $100 million pitching contracts usually don't work out either. CC Sabathia has been the only $100 million pitcher to perform up to the contract.

    I'm looking forward to watching Kyle Zimmer pitch when USF comes to Hawaii to play in the middle of March. They play a 4 game series from Thursday thru Sunday. I'm hoping he pitches Thursday, because that game will be televised here. I read USF also has a lefthander who is also draftable this year.

    LG

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    1. Cainer has average 4 WAR for the last 6 seasons. Market value of $$$/WAR is between $4.5-5 M/year. So, on a 1 year contract, Cain would be worth $18-$20 M. The longer the contract, the more the team should get a security discount. So, fair market value for Cainer on a 4-5 year deal should be in the range of about $16-18 M/yr. Yes, he might get more than that if he gets to FA without injury, but the signing team would be overpaying. The Giants should not pay any more than 4 yr/$75M or 5 yr/90 M which is right in the Verlander/Weaver range. As much risk as pitchers carry and as much mileage as Cain already has on his arm, I'm not convinced even those numbers are a good deal for the Giants but they aren't going to keep him for less than that.

      If Cainer insists on more/longer, the Giants should try to trade him.

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    2. Matt Cain is one of the better starting pitchers in the NL as his statistics would indicate, so if he's only asking for "fair market value" on his next contract as reported, the Giants better get the deal done, at no more then 5 years. I remember following the Weaver situation on FSW, and it seemed like the most important thing to him was continuing to play in the area he grew up in. I think players make their decision based on whats important to them. Does Matt Cain want to continue to play for the Giants and be a part of a strong rotation? If yes, the deal gets done, if not he'll test the FA market and the Giants can't do anything about it. Or maybe Cain might sign this spring just to get some peace of mind knowing the health risks of pitchers.. It won't surprise me either way it turns out.

      LG

      LG

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    3. Cain has signed twice before with the Giants at very fair valuing, so it is my expectation that he will eventually sign once his agents are convinced that they have squeezed everything out of the Giants that they could. That makes negotiations a long process (as we have seen in every draft), which was hidden in the prior two contracts because it was not announced ahead of time that we were pursuing a long term deal with him. He has never been about getting every last dollar in prior contract negotiations.

      I agree with LG, I think whether he stays or not hinges on whether he wants to stay or not. From all indications, he wants to stay, he has never gave any indication that he does not want to stay. Unless his agents stupidly buy into all the big $ that the media has been flashing, a deal should get done, the issue is more how many years and how much per year.

      And as we have seen with the Giants contracts, they have been more than fair in a lot of cases, so both sides should logically be able to come to an agreement on what is fair.

      But, as fans, it is excruciatingly slow because it is like watching grass grow...

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  3. im sorry doc, but you really shouldnt be sugar coating baer...he should not be in this position

    he is and always has been, the hatchet man for the org....not the guy who is good at negotiations or dealing with the press

    and there is no evidence at all that cain will be any less a great pitcher at years end, then he is now

    what there is evidence of, is that the giants offense will be as bad as it has been, and cain and his management will choose to leave in order to go to where cain can finally show what he is capable of...and win that elusive cy young

    and as the main stumbling block to giving up sj was the duke....this deal is basically done....with enough monies to cover the crappy contracts of the past and possibly buy a bat for the future....im saying in the 100-200 mil range....never mind that will be offset by the monies lost in silicon valley dollars

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    1. Geez Bacci! Who's sugarcoating Baer? I don't think I made any excuses for him here at all. In fact, I think I at least implied that he was awkward in his responses.

      You know what, Bacci? I think the Giants are going to get a deal done with Cain. I'm actually a lot more worried that they are going to overpay on this thing and regret it later than I am that they are going to lose Cain.

      My second biggest worry is that they will be slow on the trigger in realizing it's not going to happen and they will lose out on an opportunity to improve the overall talent in the organization through a trade. Instead, I fear they will keep telling themselves it will work out and in the meantime they will hang onto him hoping for one last WS out of him which just by the odds is not likely to happen.

      No evidence at all, Bacci? What about that sore elbow he came up with in Spring Training last year or the bone fragments we know he has in that elbow? All pitchers are one pitch away from the operating table and Cainer is no exception.

      We'll see about the San Jose thing. It might be a done deal as you say. I think it's a bit odd that Selig visited the Giants right after the Winter Meetings yet there has been no announcement forthcoming. I could be wrong because there is whole lot I don't know about the inner machinations of MLB, but there must be something holding them back from announcing a deal.

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    2. One more thing Bacci,

      To say the Giants offense will be just as bad as it has been it to completely ignore good quality projection systems that say it should be league average. What there is NO evidence for is that the Giants offense is a factor in Cain's negotiations.

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    3. The Duke was the main stumbling block? Not sure if I agree on that.

      I do agree on Baer, he is a very good hatchet man but not a leader.

      I do enjoy the DrB-bacci arguments.

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    4. Sorry to be so dense, but who it The Duke?

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    5. Took me a bit too. I'm assuming bow tie Neukom.

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    6. Funny, I thought Neukom when I read bacci, then realized with DrB/Shankbone, that it should have been Nuke, not Duke...

      Nuke was not the main stumbling block, Selig was. The Giants rightly put out the public face that they are not giving up their rights. History shows that when Selig wants to, he will trample over rights. The Orioles were forced to accept that the Nationals were moving into their territory, leaving negotiations on how much was the fair price for doing that. The vote was 29-1, with the Orioles the only No vote.

      To extract maximum value from the negotiations, the Giants need to put up the stonewall, any weakness equals less dollars down the line. That is why Neukom was great for being the face of that, and despite selling out all his shares (reportedly), he still appears to be their main negotiator with the MLB regarding compensation for giving up their rights to that territory.

      Baer waffling in public could indicate that negotiations are in process, though per the comments above, perhaps it's because he's not very good as a public face.

      But negotiations like this takes a long time. Why, I can't say exactly as I've never been involved with them before, but there is an art to that, because neither side should be coming up with fair proposals to start, both should be extreme and then they start talking out compromises from both sides as they creep to a fair resolution and finally sign to a deal in the middle somewhere. I would think that something would be announced by the end of spring training, much like I think that Cain's would be done around then as well. That's the deadline effect at work, people will take every last minute to argue for their side and as the deadline approaches, more and more concessions fall to the side, as long as both sides want the deal to happen. If there is stall on either side, then to LG's point, probably nothing happens and both sides move one.

      And while I don't recall a deadline of spring training for the South Bay rights, I would think all sides involved would like this resolved before the season starts. And Wolffe isn't getting any younger, I was shocked when I realized he's in his upper 70's, he might not even make the new park opening, you never know, particularly once you get that old.

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    7. Overpay is a valid concern, but really, once contracts get over $50M, what is more important to me is that there is a huge amount of risk for the team, no matter how fair a contract can be, because any player, whether pitcher or hitter, could suddenly go lame and you are stuck. For example, I wanted the Giants to re-sign Barry Bonds, but that 5 year contract going into his early 40's was a tremendous risk to take on. If those years turned out more like Willie Mays than Ted Williams, we would have been up sh*t creek without a paddle.

      Still, for Cain and Lincecum, I would risk that.

      No evidence? As DrB astutely noted, by being a pitcher, your career can be over in a blink of an eye. Ask Noah Lowry about that, ask Robb Nen.

      bacci, you assume that a winning record is all Cain cares about. If his agents are any good, they should be explaining to him why he's not getting great press regarding his abilities, showing him how good he is statistically. And in any case, I think getting into the World Series is a huge draw for almost any player who plays the game, he has to realize that the Giants are set up to reach the World Series multiple times in the coming years if they have Lincecum and Cain (and Bumgarner) atop the rotation.

      He's also at fault there as well. He could have just used his fastball a lot more often to strike out guys left and right when he came up. Instead, he's been a thinking pitcher, thinking many steps ahead to when he didn't have his fastball, jumping over the "hump it in" phase of mamy pitcher's careers to the talented ol' fogey pitcher" phase in a blink of an eye. Unfortunately, baseball is not ready to recognize pitchers like that, particularly the part where his BABIP is exceedingly low, even sabers refuse to recognize that rare and unique skill. Girls and guys and sabers dig the strikeout, that's just the way the game works and has worked.

      He's never going to win the Cy Young the way he pitches, it just doesn't excite the average fan nor the average sportwriter with a Cy Young vote. If winning that award was very important to him, he can see how Lincecum did it, and Timmy did it with poor offenses and without winning a lot of games, so that belies what you argue as a reason for him to leave.

      As another blogger rebutted my comment when I noted reasons why Cain might stay, "nobody knows what Cain is thinking". The irony is that neither do all the people who say he's going to leave because of XYZ. I at least can point to prior behavior to show that 1) he's not about getting top dollar, 2) he feels a link with the Giants, 3) he likes the Bay Area.

      Ultimately, I'm heartened by his recent comments about getting fair value. The Giants are all about giving fair value, they as DrB noted, have a problem giving more than fair value. So I think a deal will get done, but like all negotiations, as the deadline closes in, movement in the negotiations will speed up exponentially as long as both sides want the signing to happen. There is nothing in prior behavior to suggest that Cain does not want a signing to happen, in fact, he says he will sign as long as he gets fair value.

      And that don't sound like him, I have to assume his agents prepped him to say that, and that is the right thing for him to say publicly.

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  4. Let's just say Aaron Rowand seems to be a bit lacking in the self-awareness department.

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  5. Time to panic? I don't think so. Negotiations with Cain are, just that, negotiations. No ultimatums have been publicly issued or hinted at. No hold-out in progress. Cain is in camp and apparently happy, in-shape and working out to be ready for the season. The Giants have the $$$ money to sign Cain and have stated so very publicly and repeatedly. Both sides have good reasons to get a fair deal done. So negotiations are taking place good for that. Cain will get his $18MM+/5yrs. That makes me happy and I assume that makes the Giants and Cain happy.

    Giants and the A's over the South Bay. Now those are real power n money negotiations. How about starting at $20MM/yr. for 20 years. I don't think this will get done by Opening Day.

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    1. That is way too much and beyond the precedent that the Orioles D.C. negotiations set. I think something in the $100M range is going to be where it will fall, that's approximately what the Orioles got plus baseball inflation since then.

      I think that is why Wolffe has been keeping about $20M in cash flow for every season he has been the owner, he should have around $120M built up in his war chest, part to start construction, most to pay off the Giants. I think that is why Selig waited until now to do anything, he becomes the public bad guy face of why there is no movement when the A's probably wanted to delay the negotiations until they had enough money built up to pay off the Giants as well as start construction.

      That's also another reason to blow up the team again, that brings in even more cash flow for the next couple of years to help pay for construction of the new park.

      That's also why I think Opening Day is the deadline they have been working against in negotiations, they need to get things going sooner than later to build the new park, as I noted, Wolffe is no spring chicken and he's been dreaming of this day since he was much younger, he grew up in the South Bay.

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    2. Oh, forgot to mention that another important number to remember is $120M is basically the remaining loan payments left to make ($20M per year, recently news that mortgage oer in 2017, meaning 6 more payments left to make).

      The Giants argument is that they had to finance the park and thus the new park could jeopardize their ability to pay off the loan. If the A's pay enough to cover the remaining loan payments, that would guarantee that no matter how badly the A's affect attendence for the Giants, they would be able to pay off their loan.

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  6. He has been lacking since he signed, first, it was pretty clear that he petered out in stamina his first season, but it took him two seasons to realize that, and then he thought that riding a mountain bike in the offseason was the proper way to build up his fitness, and he's been doing that every off-season since.

    Too bad he wasn't more dense, then after 100 days of 60 miles biking, he would call into spring training and ask, "what should I do now that I'm 6,000 miles away?"

    Sandoval totally schooled him on the proper way to get into proper shape, Rowand was not motivated at all to do anything to improve himself once he signed his big contract, biking was an excuse for him to do an activity that he loved to do, and showed that he ultimately wasn't much of a professional.

    Unless, that is, he can show how many major leaguers ride a mountain bike regularly to get into baseball fitness and shape. He sure showed all those bums in the fitness gyms, didn't he?

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  7. I would love to see the Giants give up SJ and get enough money to finance Timmy and Cain. If we freed up 20mm a year, with Zito off the books in two, that is really $40mm. And given that Timmy and Cain are already taking a big number, that $40mm goes toward them and then signing Bumgarner and Posey (and whom knows who else). Panda is good for three seasons, and the other guys are young and/or unproven. We'd be in great shape.

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  8. Rowand is mouthing off about PacBell, much the usual. Also commenting on the number of OFs. I really wish they cut Rowand and Tejada the day of the Beltran trade.

    Speaking of work outs - Cody Ross and Johny Gomes work out together - they have to play for their next contract, can't be mountain biking the world.

    Rowand is definitely a great example of a low-IQ baseball player. It comes out in interviews, in the apparent stubbornness with not listening to hitting coaches, and of course the work outs. Its pretty ironic he's battling Scott Cousins for the job and has already taken his number 33 from Cousins. (Cousins took 6 in case you were curious).

    I enjoyed that sfgiants propaganda video with Susac/Ricky O/Crick - I like the trainer the G's have now. Its incredibly important to be in the best shape ever. Saw some old video of Nolan Ryan in his last season of ball - working out like a fiend. And that guy is just as good an example to bring up with Cain along with Nen and Foppert. Injuries do happen, and country strong men can pitch their hearts out for a long time as well.

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