Matt Grabusky over at MLB Draft Guide, a site that has become my go-to site for draft information with the disappearance of Baseball Beginnings/Baseball Prospect Report, has put up his first Mock Draft for 2012. Just a few random comments:
I don't know if he was influenced by my comments on Lewis Brinson, but he has Brinson going to the Giants at #20. The Giants have occasionally taken toolsy HS players in the first round without a lot of success, or any success at all for that matter. Brinson does not particularly fill an organizational need either. On the other hand, I absolutely love what I've seen and read of this kid so far and would be very happy to see the Giants take him at #20. My comps for him would be the Uptons, Adam Jones and Chris Young. Getting a player like those guys with the #20 pick is doing pretty darn well. To me, I like Brinson about as much as Byron Buxton who is listed at #2 to the Twins, but you'd be getting Brinson for about 1/3 of the slot bonus.
Our white whale, Carlos Correa goes to the KC Royals at #5, so forget that.
Our reader who lives near Harvard-Westlake might want to go check out Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, righty-lefty pitchers who are slated to go #3 to the O's and #7 to the Pads respectively.
Jake Barrett, a hard throwing college RHP who might interest the Giants goes to the Cards at #23.
Victor Roache, the power hitting corner OF from Georgia Southern drops to the BrewCrew at #28. Roache is just so typical of a BrewCrew pick. If this happened in real life, we might have to pick someone up from the bottom of the stairs. LOL!
Travis Jankowski, who seems like a classic Giants pick, goes at #29 to the Rangers while Courtney Hawkins, a portly but athletic HS OF, goes to the Yanks at #29. Remember, the Yanks won't be able to go much above slot any more without some pretty stiff penalties, and not just monetary ones either.
Some names that didn't make the first round include Rio Ruiz, Javier Valentin-Diaz, Lucas Sims and Taylore Cherry.
Mock drafts change a lot as we get closer to the real draft, and even mock drafts on the eve of the draft seldom have more than a handful of correct picks. I love the idea of Brinson to the Giants at #20 but there are several players placed lower who I would be happy with too. I'm getting more and more confident that the Giants will get a very good player at a great value with the #20 draft pick in 2012. I'll say again that the players who should be available in the second half of the first round appear to be not that much different than what's available in the top 10 except their slot bonuses will be a fraction of what teams will have to pay to the higher picks. Good stuff!
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Have to let the seasons play out, so much changes especially at the college level. This day and age of having youtube clips of BP and game action are awesome though.
ReplyDeleteHow a preppy joint like Harvard-Westlake ended up with the 1-2 HS arms in the nation is beyond me, but if I get a chance I'll go catch a game, that's pretty unique.
I resisted the urge to comment on Roache in the mock draft last night, maybe I'll do it today. He hits the way everyone expects him to hit no way he drops, but maybe he gets a rap for contact issues, who knows.
I maintain we need a Adam Jones, Justin Upton type player to take the offense to the next level. Yes we can fight the good fight, but if you want to make an offensive juggernaut, an athletic corner OF who can really hit is the missing link. If they want to take a chance on Brinson, great. Roache seems like a dream come true in LF to me, and has the immediacy of getting to the majors in 1-3 years versus 3-5 of a HS guy.
He'll be all over the place with a rep as a tweener but this Tyler Naquin guy looks like 1A to Jankowski, maybe he could drop to us in the 2nd round. As long as we're looking at OFs, those 2 in addition to Roache and Brinson look like the suspects. I am getting a little allergic to lefty hitters at the moment though.
I bet they'll have a long list of pitchers they want and a couple of position players. If those guys get snagged they'll grab a pitcher and then see what falls to the next round. I do think that mock is light on pitching picks, I might mention that to him.
Oh, and boy wonder Theo Epstein got his first bargain of his new GMship - Paul Maholm for 4.75MM with a 2nd year option of 6.5MM/500K buyout. When we're playing the Zito game next year this is going to look like a very very reasonable alternative. Oh scuz me, boy wonder Jed Hoyer got his first bargain. My bad.
ReplyDeleteAdam Brett Walker (Jacksonville University)
ReplyDeleteBig - young kid with excellent power numbers. Strikes out a bunch, but hit over .400 and can play RF. You can't teach 6'5 - 225 with power and speed. Victor Roache and - or Adam Brett Walker types are what SF needs moving forward.
I like Walker. Fla-Giant from MCC has seen him in person a couple times and says he's definitely going to be a 1B. So we have another 1B prospect, I can live with that. Another power hitter is the FL HS 1B Keon Barnum. Although he's listed as a 3B, Joey Gallo is actually a 2-way HS prospect who also has big time power. Trey Williams (HS) and Richie Shaffer (Clemson) round out the 1b/3b power. Gallo and Barnum are lefty bats though, if you want to buy into home park advantages, we might look to the RHB first.
ReplyDeleteWow, I know its dead zone time between pitchers and catchers and all, but where did the comments go? OGC is sick, OK. But Seligia getting 2 more years isn't enough to drag Bacci out for a cynical comment?
ReplyDeleteDr. B, thanks for the mention and the kind words. On Roache, opinions on where he will/should be drafted are all over the place. I will talk with one person and come away convinced that he will go top 10. Then I talk with a scout who doesn't see him as a first round talent. I don't think there ia any chance he doesn't go round one, but where he goes will depend on which team falls in love with him.
ReplyDeletePretty hard to keep up with you Shankbone! As far as drafting corner outfielders with pop, I am all for it. I would rather get a Justin Upton then an Adam Jones but beggars can't be choosers.
ReplyDeleteI know everyone has given convincing arguments as to why our offense will be decent this year and I can't disagree that it should. Our biggest issue is still the lack of power and the easiest place to upgrade in the draft are corner outfield and 1B.
As for filling organizational needs, unless there is someone that can fast-track their way through the minors like Posey did, it shouldn't matter what position they play if they are the best player on the board. Thinking about it a little more, who would he be blocking? Project him making it to the majors in 4 years and who do we have projected to be our starting RF/LF in 4 years? I like Nate but if something better comes around then bye bye Nate. Melky may stick around but who knows.
Having said all that, I really don't see Sabean going after someone like this kid with the first pick. Once bitten and sabes is 100 times shy. Wendell Fairley will forever keep Sabes from drafting another toolsy unproven player.
Matt,
ReplyDeleteThanks for coming over and commenting. Love your site!
Pato,
I agree completely that Sabean is a guy who doesn't like to get burned twice, despite what a lot of people think about him. One reason why I would be willing to place a small bet on Jankowski is that Sabes tends to go back to what works until it doesn't work. The early returns on Brown and Panik are good enough that I will be almost surprised if he doesn't go for a similar player yet again. Jankowski is the guy who is the closest comp to Brown and Panik in this draft.
There's a good interview on the San Jose Giants site with Joe Ritzo and Fred Stanley, the G's director of player development. Lots of good stuff to read, this stood out about Panik: "At short, he's very sure handed. As accurate a thrower as you've seen come through San Jose, including (Brandon) Crawford. You'll appreciate his shortstop play." The next part outlines possible the flexibility Panik gives them, check it out. Sabean doesn't like getting burned and he loves his flexibility.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely worth the time. Hints at Rosin/Dunnington starting, outlines leaning towards Ricky O to SJ, possible 2-3-4 of Panik, Ricky O and Susak, with Duvall at third, Jurica/Willoughby at second. Very interesting read.
Reading that SJ article made me realize that JC Perez did not make DrB's top 97. I would think that he deserves honorable mention. That would make 98, 1 more than last year.
ReplyDeleteYeah by the time you get to the Giants pick, very hard for any mock draft to get it right, particularly when a team or two goes off the script.
ReplyDeleteamazingly enough, though, someone did have the Giants picking Brown in an early mock but then went with one of the pitchers they were rumored to be on.
Adam Brett Walker can play the outfield better than most think. He looked great playing in the outfield the entire summer of 2010 in the Great Lakes Summer Collegiate League (GLSCL). He was even voted the Top Prospect in the league as an outfielder. Its hard to spot play in the outfield when you have played an entire season as a first baseman. He will be able to play anywhere in t OF with the proper reps. Great OF arm too.
ReplyDelete