Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Down on the Farm: #27 Dan Otero

#27 Dan Otero RHP. 6'3", 205 lbs. BD: 2/19/1985.

AA: 2-1, 1.42, 38 IP, 4 BB, 40 K's, GO/AO= 1.81.

AAA: 2-3, 3.25, 36 IP, 7 BB, 36 K, GO/AO= 1.21, 12 Saves.

There is not much to not like about Otero's stat line. I especially like his line for his last 10 appearances for Fresno: 0-1, 2.45, 11 IP, 1 BB, 7 K's, GO/AO= 1.78. I don't have a good scouting report on Otero. I'm thinking he's a low 90's FB guy with great command. His K/9=9 tells me he has some kind of put away pitch. He's basically been on the closer track since being drafted in the 21'st round out of South Florida in 2007 and moved slowly up the system. He actually reached AA in 2009 but missed most of 2010 and got sent back to Arizona and SJ when he came back. I assume there was some sort of injury setback there. So, he's an older prospect, but does not have a lot of innings on his arm. The Giants took a lesson from losing Joe Paterson to the Rule 5 draft, to a division rival no less, and put Otero on the 40 man roster to make sure it's didn't happen again. There's always a role for a guy who can come out of the bullpen, throw strikes, miss bats and put the ball on the ground even if he doesn't have eye popping velocity. He could contend for the last bullpen job out of spring training in 2012.

11 comments:

  1. Guys like this are why I knew Ram Ram was getting traded. And Casilla will next year. Right handed relievers are the easiest thing to replace in baseball, as far as the back end of the pen.

    And good point about the Giants learning from their mistakes. Nobody wants to point out that part of it, they just want to rage about losing Joe Paterson.

    DrB - draft talk time. Stephen Piscotty, 3B at Stanford. RH bat. 3b/1b/LF/RF with good defense and a good arm, check. Fast bat with more power potential. Check. Cape cod league all-star. Check. Proven college bat. Check. He's ranked 37 on Mayo's, 14 in BA's top 100 college. He's 6'3 with a slim athletic frame. I'd say that he might provide Jankowski some competition for the safe repeatable pattern college draft guy for the G's. And if he's still there in the 2nd round for sure. The Giants always love the position flexibility. I'd say this guy is just as polished as Jankowski but with the power potential instead of the speed. With the CF depth we have already, he might fit a better need.

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  2. And when I start looking at random guys to draft, I can't stop - check out Rock Rucker. What a name! 2-way GA prepster, 6'5 and 215 already. Lefty!

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  3. It is nice to see the Giants pipeline is well stocked with bullpen arms. This should allow the Giants to turn over the pen (including Wilson) to keep it low cost as the Giants invest big $$$ in their home grown starters (Timmy, Cain, MadBum, Vogie). A dominate low cost pen will be a big part of the Giants long term success. Control guys like Otero can be really effective if they can be slotted to fill a role.

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  4. Lincecum signed 2 years for $40.5MM. $18MM in 2012, $22MM in 2013 and a $500K bonus. At least we got him down from $44MM so it is a win for us.

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    1. Pretty darn close to what I predicted.

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    2. You called it pretty close DrB, only $1M higher in 2012, $500K in 2013, plus the $500K bonus.

      I agree, win for the Giants since it is close to the Giants offer and not Lincecum's asking.

      Buys us cost certainty for 2012 and 2013, and time to see how he performs before free agency.

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  5. Timmy for Two @ $40.5MM cut $18MM/$22MM. That's a great deal!!! (hell it's not my money)

    Timmy wins: Gets big bucks for final two arb years to FA. He produces, he gets setup for a HUGE FA contract - I think that is the way Timmy likes to hang. Downside risk for Timmy is injury and/or trending stats decline from elite to very good (beating Kershaw in 2012 would really help). Simply put, if Timmy stays elite and especially if he carries the Giants into the playoffs, then he gets his payoff.

    Giants win: They get reasonable cost certainty for the next two years on one of the elite pitchers in the game. Two more years should allow the Giants and Timmy to understand his true long term value - declining from elite to very good or raising to a Madduxian level. The Giants real Timmy decision point is now extended into next year (that's why the two years is so important). 2013 will be the year of "Trade/Keep Timmy". Plus they get two more years of "Let Timmy Smoke" merchandise sales.

    Frankly, I am just damn happy for the privilege of watching Timmy pitch in a Giants uni for the next two years. Timmy for Two!!!!

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  6. Love Baggs summary line of the Timmy deal,

    "Lincecum won't be the highest-paid Giant this season. Barry Zito still holds that "honor" with a $19 million salary."

    Why to cut it Baggs.

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  7. From Baggs: Tim Lincecum's contract w/ #SFGiants includes limited no-trade clause, I'm told. Both sides open to longer-term negotiations in near future.

    Yup, I like the sound of that.

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  8. I was looking at the Davenport projections that I learned about on Crazy Crabber's website, and they had Otero at a 2.97 ERA projection, so perhaps he's the one who might replace Ramirez in the bullpen. In fact, his projection is the lowest among all potential Giants pitchers, Davenport had Lincecum and Cain in an ERA range that they haven't be in for years now (one of big quibbles with this methodology), except for Romo at 2.95. They also had Runzler at 3.73 ERA, so he's still feeling the love from the sabers.

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    1. Some of Otero's projection may be from overvaluing pitching in the EL. Yeah, every projection system hates Matt Cain. I'm surprised they don't like Lincecum but may have noticed his declining K and BB numbers.

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