#10 Ehire Adrianza, SS. 6'0", 170 lbs. BD: 8/21/1989. B-S, T-R.
Low A: .231/.315/.378, 10 2B, 3 HR, 18 BB, 32 K in 143 AB.
High A: .300/.375/470, 24 2B, 3 HR, 23 BB, 46 K in 230 AB.
VWL: .234/.282/.338 in 77 AB.
Giants fans know as well as anyone just how hard it can be to find a SS who can field the position at all, let alone field it well. Ehire Adrianza is an exceptional fielder at SS automatically making him a prospect no matter what he hits. On the surface, it's easy to dismiss Adrianza as a hitter, but when you dig down a bit, there is reason for optimism.
He got a late start on 2011 due to a torn thumb ligament in his left hand that required surgery near the end of spring training. His weak numbers in Low A are most likely due to a residual from that injury. Once he got back to San Jose, Adrianza had a nice little season hitting .300 with doubles power. He's always been a patient hitter, especially for someone with limited power maintaining walk rates between 8.8% and 11.1% over his minor league career. He's always had some doubles power with 100 XBH's out of 335 minor league hits.
Although he is on the thin side, to my eye he has room to fill out his frame. I think he could well be a late bloomer for power and the fundamentals are already there. The logical next step for him would be to start 2012 in Richmond which will be a stiff test. If he keeps his head above water there, he's a legit MLB prospect.
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I'm so excited about these Giants prospects, when I get done writing up one, I can't wait to start on the next one. I'm trying to pace myself here, but whattheheck? If I finish early I'll just have to think of something else to write about before spring training starts.
ReplyDeleteKeep em coming Dr. B!! I know next to nothing about Ehire, I just hope he isn't Eugenio Velez 2.0. How is his speed? If he plays any D he will be better then Gino...
ReplyDeleteWell, for one thing, Velez couldn't really field any position let alone SS, while Adrianza is a superior fielding SS, possibly even better than Crawford. I also think Adrianza has a much higher baseball IQ than Velez, although that's difficult to measure.
ReplyDeleteHello Doc -
ReplyDeleteI am also enjoying this series - as well as your blog. Compared to the other, what, 15 Nat'l league SSs, where do Crawford and Ehire rank? I mean, just how good are they defensively? Top 3? Top 5? middle? etc...
I have been high on Adrianza for some time now. 2 years ago, John Hart, the past GM of the Rangers who is now an analyst for MLB TV said Adrianza was the second-coming of Omar Vizquel. That is high praise indeed but it looks to be true as far as the glove is concerned.
ReplyDeleteWe got to see Adrianza play in San Jose this last year and he looked very smooth at the position. Good range and a strong arm in the hole.
Before last year he was usually ranked higher than Crawford on Giants prospect lists and his contact rate was higher as well.
Allfrank,
ReplyDeleteI assume you are talking about how the NL shortstops rank defensively? Defensive statistics are still in their relative infancy so it's still a bit subjective. One commonly used defensive measurement is UZR/150 which stands for Ultimate Zone Rating/150 games. Of the NL shortstops who played more than 500 innings last year, 9 had positive UZR/150's. Here's the list:
Paul Janish- 12.1
Clint Barmes- 10.8
Stephen Drew- 8.7
Brandon Crawford- 8.2
Troy Tulowitzki- 7.9
Ronnie Cedeno- 6.8
Jimmy Rollins- 3.1
Edgar Renteria- 1.4
Willie Bloomquist- 1.3.
Notice there is a distinct dropoff between Cedeno and Rollins, so I'll group the top 6 together into the top tier and say they are all approximately equal. Brandon Crawford is right in the middle of that group.
We don't have UZR data for the minor leagues but based on scouting reports I've read and personal observation, Adrianza is at least as good as Crawford and possibly better.
One caveat about UZR is it can vary quite a bit from year to year. It is estimated that you might need a 3 year sample size to get an accurate reading. On the other hand, injuries and aging may affect things dramatically over a 3 year period so the whole thing is still quite iffy.
I'll just say that as far as I'm concerned, Crawford passed the "eye test" last year. What I observed on the field agrees with the UZR numbers.
I just re-read the Baggs BA chat and the top ten. It kind of reminded me of the old Manny Burriss scouting reports actually. Different type of players, but the knock about strength and ability to hit stuck out a bit. Twice in the BA chat Baggs names Crawford as the likely of the two to succeed. I wonder if he's hearing this from BA or the Giants brass.
ReplyDeleteI think the Eastern will be a big time challenge for Ehire. Its great to have not one but 2 slick fielding shortstops in the hopper. I hope we get some others soon. The position is an absolute wasteland at the major league level offensively, so why not take care of the other side of the ball? You can understand why Adrianza was protected immediately by the Giants.
RBJ - that is pretty high praise, an Omar comparison. I watch MLB tv as well and enjoy what Hart has to say, when he gets a chance to talk, polite gent.
Three of the Giants prospects who get the most controversy all got hurt at the beginning of this year - Crawford, Frankie Pegs and Adrianza. I guess it was just the year for it. I think all 3 players can contribute something to the big club. That is a big difference from a few years ago. We don't always need stars, just solid ballplayers will help as well.
DrB - one little point about Jose Reyes - his UZR numbers were terrible. I was sort of shocked at how badly he was rated by a chart the guys at bay city ball put up ranking all the shortstops by hitting/fielding/games played (injury risk) on a 3 year average. Rollins was pretty consistent across the board, Reyes was up there with hitting and horrible with the rest. Whats this got to do with Crawford? Well, I'm sure when Reyes starts his first hot streak and Crawford is struggling the cries will come "If only we didn't sign the lefties, etc". Just a quick note that its not just the injury risk, its also the defense itself.
ReplyDeleteI would agree that Crawford passed the eye test, the only caveat is we might have been so used to statues out there sometimes he looked like he was going supersonic on us or something.
Cedeno signed with the Mets today on a 1 year deal.
Manny Burriss had 61 XBH's against 385 total hits in his minor league career while Adrianza has 100 XBH's out of 335 total hits. That's a pretty significant difference in power that favors Adrianza. So, I'm not sure I agree completely with Baggs comps to Burriss.
ReplyDeleteGood point about the XBH. While Baggs was favoring Crawford it was me who was comping Burriss and Adrianza. Here's the relevant passage from the 2007 BA scouting on Burriss (I think the first one Baggs did actually): He has very little pop, and pitchers at higher levels may be able to overpower him.
ReplyDeleteAdrianza has been in the top 10 for 3 years. Here's from 2009, his first: He must continue to get stronger so better pitchers won't just knock the bat out of his hands. The latest one Baggs says he needs to add strength but doesn't get the lumber knocked. Progress! In 2009 he was 8/Crawford 9. In 2010 he was 5/Crawford 6. This year he's dropped back to 9 and some think its just because BA is high on him they put him in the top 10. Or... it could be the Gints have drafted wisely the past 2 years.
Obviously rankings are sometimes looked at too literally, but its seems like Adrianza and Crawford have been 1/1A for 2 years plus and Craw got first crack. Sometimes thats all you need, but Adrianza is 2 years younger. Still, Crawford's eastern performance year to year showed improvement even though he is trashed roundly by naysayers for it. I'm pretty impressed he was able to improve his K/BB ratio and cut down so much at the major league level.
I think Adrianza is a better prospect than Burriss was, I just noticed that blurb that held true a few years later on Burriss, I'd say that will be the knock on Adrianza as well. An all-glove SS is still very valuable.
I don't think there is much question that Crawford has more present power than Adrianza and he is getting there first, so has a chance to block Adrianza in the future. I do think Adrianza still has the potential to grow as a hitter, both for average and for power. It's going to be an interesting story line going forward.
ReplyDeleteOf course, all this is assuming that Joe Panik will move to 2B which isn't a given either.
Oh c'mon DrB, don't you read Keith Law? Panik is a utility IF at best.
ReplyDeleteHis D is still superb (I'd still take Crawford over him tho), I'm not buying Adrianza until he can prove this year at the plate wasn't a fluke. #10 is a hard stretch still for me.
ReplyDelete