Yesterday, it was announced that the St. Louis Cardinals had reached an agreement on a contract with Carlos Beltran at a cost of 2 years/$26 M. Predictably, the Giants oriented internet community erupted in a salvo of F-bombs directed at Giants management in general and Brian Sabean in particular, raging at a litany of fan grievances old and new, but mostly old.
Before getting into the signing, or non-signing, and it's impact on the Cardinals and Giants, lets get a few things out of the way"
1. Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand were signed 6 and 5 years ago, respectively. Those signings have been hashed and rehashed, reviled, spat upon repeatedly and ad nauseum. Whether they are Brian Sabean's fault or Peter Magowan's, it's water under the bridge, folks. Water under the bridge! The Giants have won a World Series Championship with those two contracts on the books. Time to move on!
2. The Giants are never going to have a payroll like the Red Sox or Yankees or Angels. I don't know if the Giants ownership group can afford more or not. I don't pretend to have inside knowledge of the Giants accounting books. But you know what? It doesn't matter! $130 M is a very reasonable payroll for a MLB team and ownership is going to set their payroll limits based on whatever they set them on and raging about it from now until doomsday is not going to change it. Again, time to move on!
3. The Beltran trade is done and has no bearing on this offseason. There was no team option to use as leverage for a new contract. There were no compensatory draft picks coming. Beltran became a free agent at the end of the season as in free as a bird. The Giants traded their best pitching prospect for a chance to revive a moribund offense, get back into the playoffs and possibly win a second consecutive World Series, nothing more, nothing less. Seeing how the postseason played out, it wasn't a pipe dream that if they could just squeak back into the playoffs they had a chance to go all the way again. It didn't work out. Time to move on!
If you need one more round of raging catharsis about any of the 3 above topics, I suggest visiting the Message Board at sfgiants.com and mccoveychronicles.com. They are conveniently linked over to the left. You will find plenty of like minded folks at both places to rage along with. On to the signing!
Carlos Beltran is one of the better hitters in baseball. He was probably the 4'th best offensive player on the free agent market after Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, maybe even better than Reyes. He signed for a very reasonable contract both in years and dollars. The Cardinals can now move Lance Berkman to first base and put Beltran in RF and still have a very good offense despite the loss of Pujols. They also have to run the table on Beltran, Berkman and Furcal staying healthy for the length of the season at somewhat long odds.
As for the Giants, most fans long ago accepted that they were not going to get Pujols, Fielder or Reyes, but the flame of hope still burned for Beltran. That he ended up signing for a seemingly affordable price caused the frustration to boil over with even greater intensity. Was he really that affordable? Beltran essentially said at the end of the season that signing him came with strings attached for the Giants, namely they had to also upgrade the top of their batting order. In essence, Beltran presented Brian Sabean and the Giants with a Gordian Knot and said, "if you can untie this, I'll consider signing" The knot consisted of 3 strands of rope tied together, 2 strands provided by Beltran, 1 by the Giants ownership group: 1. Upgrade the top of the order. 2. Sign Beltran 3. Stay under a payroll budget of $130 M. Brian Sabean countered by setting his own priorities: 1. Keep the pitching intact. 2. Upgrade CF and the top of the order. 3. Sign Beltran if there was enough left over. You had to know at that point that Beltran wasn't signing with the Giants.
As currently constructed, after all the players offered arbitration are signed, the Giants payroll will likely stand at somewhere around $126-127 M. Signing Beltran would put that number up to right around $140 M, $10 M over budget. The money would have to had to come from cuts elsewhere in the budget. This is where the discussion gets interesting and the rageaholics may have a legitimate claim that needs to be addressed. Did Brian Sabean paint himself into a corner with premature moves that ate up the money that could have been spent on Beltran?
The primary target of the "naysayers" is the contracts for Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez. Add those two and you get just under $10 M. Put that with the $3-4 M surplus and you are right at the $13 M that Beltran signed for. We'll go ahead and assume Beltran would have accepted the same deal from the Giants, no sure bet. Do you really want to lose the advantage the Giants have in the late innings of close games against LH middle of the order bats? Do you really want to turn those AB's over to George Sherrill and Dan Runzler, or to Santiago Casilla? I don't care what the WARmongers say. WAR undervalues those high leverage outs. I know there are a lot of people out there who know a lot about baseball who will continue to insist that Affeldt and Lopez are completely fungible assets and the money spent on them should have been spent on Beltran. I'm not buying what they are selling. The thought of George Sherrill or Dan Runzler facing Prince Fielder or Jay Bruce in the 8'th inning with runners on base is just too sickening, and that doesn't even count the Miguel Monteros, Andre Ethiers or CarGones of the world. OK, maybe Sherrill holds his own against LH batters but there's also the switch-hitters who managers like to turn around to bat RH. Affeldt and Lopez fair much better against them.
What about Melky and Pagan? They are going to make about $9-10 M between them. Instead of trading for them, the Giants could have simply non-tendered Sanchez, Torres and Ramirez and taken the money saved to sign Beltran with the $3-4 M budget surplus thrown in, of course. There are a few problems with this scenario:
1. It eliminates the upgrades at the top of the lineup, something Beltran had stipulated as a precondition for him to consider signing.
2. It leaves the Giants with no CF. OK, maybe you consider Tyler Graham or Justin Christian perfectly acceptable options to play CF and hit leadoff and you might be able to defend it from projections. I'm pretty sure Beltran would not find them acceptable.
As currently constructed, if the Giants stay healthy and, on average, play to their projections, they should make the playoffs and have a chance to get another ring. Signing or not signing Beltran, under the Giants circumstances does nothing to change that, in fact, a case can be made that the cuts it would have taken to sign Beltran would lessen those chances.
At this point, the Giants are looking for 5'th starter options who are willing to sign minor league deals. I think they still need another RH bat with some pop off the bench who can play OF. There should be some options for that still on the shelf after the arbitration guys are all taken care of. I can't wait for the season to start!
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doc
ReplyDeletehappy holidays...merry xmas...may you and your family only know joy this xmas season
but you are missing the point
heard the same excuses when sabey sabes didnt go after vlad
btw...dont you think that signing beltran (for a similar deal) would have gone a long way in helping to negotiate with cain and timmy?
forgot to add
ReplyDeletei want sabean just to stop lying that the current dead weight on the roster has a direct effect on who he can sign in the offseason....ok?
I do not think signing or not signing Beltran has any bearing on Cain/Lincecum situations.
ReplyDeleteBacci,
Isn't Beltran the guy you called a "buzzkill" and who you blamed for the Giants falling out of the NL West division race? Didn't you proclaim that Sabes should have known that Franchez was made out of glass, yet Beltran's glass knees are the key to the Giants 2012 season?
Now you're going to get all upset that they didn't re-sign him?
I just want the Sabean detractors to be consistent in their detractions.
Bacci,
ReplyDeleteWhat, exactly, do you want Sabes to say? Well guys, you know we can't possibly win with these millstones that Magowan forced on me hanging around our necks? Come on Bacci. The man won a championship with those millstones. This offense is quite a bit better than the one they went into 2010 with and the pitching is no worse. The defense and team speed are better. They won a championship with these millstones around their necks. It can happen again.
Hey DrB -
ReplyDeleteVery accurate summary of the challenges of building a roster. Giants fans seem to be like Mama Soprano, they have a giant ham under their arms (Cain, Timmy, MadBum, Posey, Panda) and yet they are constantly pissed off at Sabey Sabes and the RDF Crew perceived inability to deliver more like spoiled kids waiting for so many expensive presents at Christmas.
Sometimes things don't break your way in business, sport or life. You take your lumps and you try again. Last year started out with so much promise and just became a heartbreaking mess.
This is a good squad as configured. I have said on occasion to the detractors of the leftys: If you want to go to war with Dan Runzler, you are a braver man than me. If the Giants intend to contend, they need those specific pitchers in the pen, it is a very real and very underrated strength. Giants fans will grudgingly give Bochy et al credit for the pitching, not many complaints. If the Giants looked at the FA market, their own minor leagues, other teams rosters and decided they like their guys, that's enough for me, move on to the next subject.
One thing about Vlad, because there is a bit of a similarity I'll admit. Vlad was a sweet warrior prince at the right age, the right price, the right time period and the Giants screwed the pooch. I think Sabean regretted it, got his money authorized finally and chased and chased until he ended up with Rowand. I don't think Beltran qualifies the same. He is a sweet hitter, but his game is hampered by those knees. He is a complementary piece at this point in his career, not a headliner. I do like that bat a lot, I won't lie. But I can understand the pass.
And one final thing, OGC put this up on another site, but it really stuck out to me: "I think the Giants have shown that overall, they understand Belt better than anyone else. As much as Giants fans seem to think they discovered him first, most of them either didn't notice that he was drafted (and I was one of those) or didn't think much of him, particularly because he didn't do that great in college. The Giants did and worked with him to get him to where he dominated most of 2010."
Giants fans do act like they discovered Belt, and somehow Sabean/Bochy have got ahold of their precious and are screwing it up royally. This is yet another example of the schizophrenia that prevails.
My worry with the RDF crew boils down to 2 points: 1, they need to clarify the pitching situation. They have made claims they are keeping both Timmy and Cain. A lockup of Cain soon would do wonders. 2. With Neukom's ouster the champion of the revamped farm system is no longer there, replaced by Baer and some slickness that I do question. I want to see the Giants even more committed to their farm system, as it is really starting to get interesting. Those 2 things far outweigh the 2012 free agent situation to me.
Happy holidays, Merry Christmas!
Shank
As to Affeldt and Lopez: it has never been clear to me why the most clamorous fans think that our pitchers are going to flee to teams with better offenses, so that they can win more games; but that our pitchers don't mind having their games blown if our bullpen gets worse.
ReplyDeleteShankbone,
ReplyDeleteThe future is, as always, tied to investing in scouting, drafting and the farm system.
I'll say this, everybody I talk to on scouting based website know who the Giants scouts are out there and have nothing but praise the the job they do. Just one example: Brian Foley, over at College Baseball Daily commented in regards to Jeffrey Gibbs and the Giants drafting Keith Bilodeau out of the same school that the Giants do an excellent job of scouting in the northeast.
Ah, I've given up trying to stick the detractors noses into their pile, they will flip-flop worse than the worse politician when it suits their world view that Sabean is the cause of all that is bad in the Giants world.
ReplyDeleteSabean loves vets! Funny, half the team is from the farm system and he traded for younger players to rebuild the offense for 2012.
Sabean don't know talent! Funny, he kept Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Sandoval, selected Posey, and most of the detractors I've seen out there have either 1) traded Lincecum for Rios, 2) traded Cain for somebody, 3) selected Smoak instead of Posey, 4) traded Bumgarner, 5) given up on Sandoval because he's fat, or usually a combo of the above. Sabean kept all the players worth keeping, while most of the detractors would have traded one of them or not got one, that says worlds about how good Sabean is at identifying talent.
Sabean don't understand OBP! Posey, Huff, Franchez, Sandoval, and Pagan all have career OBP around or above the league OBP over their career, particularly over the past few years, as in Pagan's case, once he figured things out. The Giants as a team in 2012 should have an OBP above the league average. Particularly ironic is that many of them wanted Smoak over Posey, and Posey has been world's better than Smoak in OBP, both absolute and especially relative to their positions.
Sabean is not sabermetric! When Neukom opened the kimono briefly, it was revealed that the Giants have their own sabermetric crew toiling away in their underground bunker, the way Sabean likes to do things, why share your best practices and secrets for beating the competition, he would rather have a championship than a book written about him and how great and smart he is. Apparently the Giants have for years been using defensive metrics that nobody else has been using.
He can't help it that baseball is, like most sports businesses, resource constrained, so you cannot rebuild entirely from within, you must sign free agents if you want to have any hope of doing anything, or you just hold your nose and take a chance on what is available on the free agent market. All the best sabermetric thinking in the world is not going to put a high OBP out on the market when you need one. And better to try a free agent and roll the dice than going into the season with Eugenio Velez as a starter written in pen.
Great memory DrB, after reading so many detractors, all their statements just blur together for me now. A lot of these detractors don't understand what it is like to be in business and to have to say things to the customers to give hope and encouragement.
It doesn't help that all of these moves are happening right around xmas time. As fans, we see other teams like the Angels, Cards, Marlins, and Rockies getting new expensive toys to play with and all we have are our old toys and a couple new ones that aren't as cool as what the other kids got. Instead of getting the Playstation 3 for xmas we got a couple new games for our Playstation 2.
ReplyDeleteI am not as pissed off as most fans about Beltran signing with the Cards for so little money and years but the fact is, he wasn't free for the Giants to acquire him and letting him go for nothing shows they made a mistake in giving up Wheeler to get him.
My biggest beaf with the way the money was spent is the Affeldt signing. That 5 million could have gone towards keeping Beltran or signing Cuddyer who is looking very reasonable right now as well. Sure they would have had to clear money some other way and there is no guarentee that Beltran doesn't turn into this years version of a 2011 Huff but it was a move that one could argue is more important then having Affeldt available to tight rope his way through every pitch.
The other thing that kills me and nobody has really been able to argue against it is why don't they just raise prices to make up for the additional 5 to 10 million it would take to give us an actual major league lineup? Seriously, if I had to pay a dollar more a beer and a dollar more for garlic fries and 5 bucks more for parking and 5 bucks more for my ticket, I am still going to the game and probably would go to even more knowing I would actually see runs scored.
So far this offseason has been a lot like the regular season with plenty of torture. Watching other teams upgrade and get better especially teams like Colorado, Arizona (Kubel is decent), and even the Padres with some nice moves is hard when our team makes a couple of small splashes but really just shifts around a few pieces. There is one last move they could make that I think would be about as risky as signing Beltran or Cuddyer but could have the upside of signing a Prince or a Pujols (I may be stretching a bit but it is possible). The money would be about the same per year as those two but the unknown could be too scary for Giants conservatives to take a chance on.
For 4 years and 40 million, the guy who has gotten little pub and who could end up being an amazing talent is Yoennis Cespedes. I know how Dr. B feels about imports but this guy is a specimen. Risk reward is huge but less then what the Angels, Cards, and Marlins are risking IMO. Cespedes would play CF most likely and move Pagan over to RF. He would bat wherever we would have batted Beltran (3rd or 5th) and would give us the same power potential, better health I assume, better base running and base stealing potential, better defense, and a player in their prime as opposed to one trying to hold onto it.
Compared to what other teams are spending this would be a middle range investment but the potential excitement he could create is comparable to some of the bigger names on the market. This move for me would save the offseason and give fans some hope that the team is making an effort and getting creative instead of just crying poor. If they have to raise prices to make it happen then they have my blessing. If we have to trade Nate or Belt or Melky or Huff or Freddy or Pill to be able to pull something like this off then go for it.
I know the percentages are not in his favor to be a superstar when you compare him to some of his countrymen like Alexei Ramirez or Kendry Morales but those are still serviceable players with upside while Cespedes you could argue is bringing a lot more to the table then those two. Right or wrong, the front office is leaving a bad taste in the fans mouths this offseason and it could go a long way bringing in a stud like Cespedes who would show they aren't totally cheap and without any creative solutions to improve what was one of the most embarrassing offenses in recent memory.
Nice comment Shankbone, but I want to correct one thing: Baggarly has already reported that Sabean was not the instigator for the Rowand signing.
ReplyDeleteAbout signing extensions, if I were Cain's agent, I would want to see what the Giants give to Lincecum first, either in arbitration or signing a long-term deal (whether 2-4-6-8 years).
But Cain has never shown any signs of wanting top dollar, so if the Giants make a fair offer, they might be able to lock him up for 4-5 years before attending to Lincecum.
I think you have to start with Verlander's deal and add to that for time since. That was 5 years at $80M, so I think something like 5 years at $90M should be the ballpark, which works out to $18M per year. Maybe $16M, $17M, $18M, $19M, $20M. Plus an option that vests if he throws over 200 IP in his last year or 400 IP over his last two years, or if the Giants pick up the option. He would still be only 32 when the contract ends, young enough to get another big payday if he's still good.
About the farm system, there were signs of higher commitment to prospects before Neukom, I would point specifically to the Villalona and RafRod signings, as well as Posey and Wheeler, as signs that they will pony up the money for the right prospects. They even went higher for Brown too, if I recall right, plus their recent string of nice pick-ups in round 2, 3, 4, a good number of them got overslot money, like Susac, Parket, Oropesa.
Great comment, campanari, gave me a great laugh!
ReplyDeleteThey don't see the consequences of the suggestions that they throw out there, they do not think that through at all, most of the time. They throw out their bon mots, thinking that things would magically work out the way they thought it would in their heads. They don't look at the big picture, how everything is interconnected, how the dominoes fall.
Not that I disagree with Campanari but one could argue that the improved offense which means more runs would mean less need for a nails bullpen to hold onto a 1 run lead. I would argue that you should be able to upgrade offense while maintaining the bullpen and all they have really done is trade one sketchy leadoff hitter for another (while weakening the pen one could argue) and traded starting rotation insurance for Beltran's replacement in Melky. Shifting pieces around an offense that was horrible last year and expecting fans to be happy is a joke.
ReplyDeletePato, the Giants have already raised the payroll from $120M last season to $130M, so they already need $3 more from each paying customer to make up for that. Add in Beltran with your suggestion, that adds another $2 more that they will need. So that is $5 more per person.
ReplyDeleteAnd that ignores the economic fact that higher prices decreases demand. You may pay more, but most people will not.
And Cuddyer is no bargain at any price. He hit poorly outside of his hitter's park home in Minnesota, in fact, he was basically Cody Ross in terms of production on the road, plus poor defense at any position you put him at. So you get average to sub-average production but with poor defense in the corners - basically what we got from Cody Ross - and you want to pay him all that? We could have resigned Ross for less and got the same production. He's going to do well in Colorado though, but his road numbers will suck. Again.
The problem with signing the big hitters to big long-term deal is that would make the payroll to hefty to support keeping Lincecum, Cain, Sandoval, Posey, Bumgarner beyond 2 years, they will be in arbitration and getting much bigger money, or out and free agent money. So who do you pick to get rid of in order to sign Fielder? Just for a couple of years of potential.
And that ignores the impact that a lot of the clubhouse probably thinks Fielder is a fool and a punk for that stupid bowling pin stunt he pulled. He'll be another Bonds-like presence in the clubhouse. I love Bonds but he was a real pain in the butt to deal with, Fielder looks like he will be just as difficult a personality. Would he really fit in with Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey, Sandoval?
That is what I was talking about above, there are consequences to actions that many don't think about.
Cuba has a long history of misses with their players, the vast majority have been huge disappointments. If you would rather the team make an exciting move than waste $40M on a player that they don't think is worth the risk (heck, even you admit he's a crapshoot), then I would say that your priorities are not set right.
Why do you need a big splash to be excited about this team?
We have one of the most dominating pitching staffs in the majors, we have been in the top 3 the past three seasons, the only team to do that, and with our pitching as is, there is no reason not to expect it to happen again in 2012.
Meanwhile, we have to legit all-star starters in Posey and Sandoval smack dab in the middle of the lineup, with a good set of complementary players around them, Pagan, Melky, Franchez, Huff, Schierholtz. And I think that Crawford can beat the low projections out there for him.
The team as projected, looks to win around mid-90 games in 2012. That ignores any improvement on the part of Melky (if 2011 was a legit breakout), Sandoval (if another off-season of fitness gives him another boost), Pagan (projections are depressed because of his poor 2011), Huff (if he can produce closer to his career average assuming he gets into fit shape).
The team is in great shape to compete in 2012, why isn't that exciting enough for you?
Would it be more exciting if we sign Fielder and he then really lets his body goes and we are stuck with a $20-25M albatross for the next 6-7 years? While our core players resent him and resent management for bringing him in?
I would rather the Giants excite the fan base with signing Lincecum and Cain to long-term deals, then excite them with signing Posey, Bumgarner, and Sandoval to long-term deals. That would keep the core with us for probably the next five years. That would be very exciting to me.
Great post and I agree!
ReplyDeletePato,
ReplyDeleteCespedes is an interesting dude, that's for sure. From the videos I've seen, he looks pretty chunky to be a CF for very long. He's got a long swing. Most reports I've read say he probably isn't ready to step into a MLB lineup right away. He probably needs at least half season in AA, maybe more. I'd rather wait a year or so for Gary Brown for the CF of the future.
I guess we are just going to have to disagree on the LH relievers. I've made my argument while you keep repeating the sabermetric CW that is based on flawed methodology. You can go ahead and dream about a bullpen with George Sherrill and Dan Runzler as the LH's. Personally, I feel much more confident with Affeldt and Lopez.
What particularly gets me, OGC, is that many of the same fans who insist on sabermetric niceties when judging players are those who rage and froth without thinking things through as to the FO and the hypothesized psychology of athletes. If one often haughtily insists on rationality in a given area, how about exercising it in others, instead of venting emptily?
ReplyDeleteNot sure where you got Fielder from, I never said they should go after him.
ReplyDeleteYou may be right about Cuddyer but I still would have liked him as insurance for Freddy and he couldn't be worse then Huff or Burrell in Left.
How can you honestly say that we had a good team last year? Even when Posey and Sanchez were healthy they weren't scoring runs. The pitching was just luckier and won all those 1 run games that they lost towards the end of the year.
This lineup isn't improved over last year. Take away a bad Torres and add a question mark in Pagan. Take away Beltran and add Melky. Assuming Sanchez and Posey are back and healthy we still have a weakened rotation with the loss of dirty (like him or not he is still better then Zito) and pen in the loss of Ramirez. The lineup looks pretty much the same as the one that sucked for the entire year in 2011 with a weaker starting rotation and bullpen.
Cuba may have a long history of misses with their players but so does everywhere else including the U.S. One could argue that 10-20 years ago the Cubans weren't playing internationally at the level they are able to now like the WBC. When you look at the raw tools it is hard to deny that this kid is going to be good.
I would also argue that excitement is exactly what this fanbase needs now after the huge let down last year was and this year is panning out to be. With all the money coming off the books next year there should be plenty of room to sign Timmy and Cain to long terms as well as keep Bumgarner, Posey, and Panda. Everyone else including Wilson, Voggie, Sanchez, Melky, Pagan, Belt, and Nate should be expendable in order to make the budget work.
If Timmy, Cain, MadBum, Posey, and Panda are our veteran core we are building around in the next few years then they can afford to take a chance on Cespedes knowing that guys like Brown, Panik, and Sanchez will be in the mix soon to fill in around the core offense of Posey and Panda and Cespedes if he turns out to reach his potential.
By trading guys like Belt, Nate, Wilson, Melky, and Voggie, they should be able to fill in where they are missing in the lineup as well as acquire pieces to help strengthen the farm. Makes sense to me.
One more point about Cespedes: If he could be signed for a bonus equivalent of a high first round draft choice with minor league options, 3 minimum wage years, the works, Yeah, I'd jump on him. He looks like a great prospect. The problem is you would be paying for an established star caliber major league FA here. Not worth the risk at all!
ReplyDeletePato,
ReplyDeleteLast year was a perfect storm of injuries and career worst seasons. If this team, on average, just plays to it's projections, it will be just fine.
yes...carlos is a buzzkill
ReplyDeletebut i could take 2 years of his moping around, if he hit 300 with 25 bombs per....for 13 mil a year
and played in left
and smiled at least once a year
im a realist
i thought he would want a 4 year....that i couldnt take
Pato, it is not Giants management's fault that Posey was taken out by a vicious hit. If he were in, the offense would have been enough to get into the playoffs, at min wild card.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry that Posey is not enough of an upgrade for you, but he's a 5-6 win difference over Whiteside, if you can't get excited over that...
can obsessive and the doc please stop repeating that baggs said sabean was not the instigator of the rowand deal....he said no such thing
ReplyDeletehe only alluded that the numbers didnt come from sabean
the idea that sabes didnt want rowand is absurd
rowand is the sort of player that sabean loves
rowand is also the sort of player that sabean likes to overpay for....randy winn anyone? bueller? bueller???????
and at least 2 columnists disagree with baggs assertion
OGC, you also commented about raising prices and that higher prices decrease demand. It has been a while since my last economics class so bare with me but if seats are the supply and the people wanting the seats is the demand, what does it tell you when they sell out every game? It tells me that they aren't maximizing their revenue potential just yet and there is room for increase until they don't sell out.
ReplyDeleteAnother factor to consider is that demand is created in large part due to the product on the field. If the product on the field is what it was last year then I will guarantee you they will not sell out every game in 2012. If the fans had something that would give them hope that the team was improved, they would continue to sell out even with the same results as last year. Without the upgrade, fans won't have the patience when things get ugly. So you can either stimulate the demand by spending more or you can watch your demand go in the toilet when the product is crap and you aren't coming off a year in which you just won the world series.
Your problem OGC is that you are in the minority when it comes to the Giants fanbase. You think of this as a business (reality) when most fans think of it as a distraction from life that should be perfect like Disneyland. If Disneyland told you they were closing half of their rides due to a budget but they were expecting the same amount of people to show up you would think they were crazy or stupid or both.
Back to economics for a second, my guess as to why the Giants don't just raise prices on everything to compensate for a high priced free agent signing is because they have already raised prices and plan on continuing to raise prices every year according to a set plan that they don't want to deviate from.
All this team is to the owners is a business. That is fine if you are making software or tee shirts but when you own a sports franchise, your fans dont want to see a good profit margin, they want wins on the field. If every fan had the choice of Mark Cuban as their team owner or the joke that owns the A's, every fan will choose Cuban because they know he looks at his team not as an investment but as his entertainment and escape from reality. Our owners look at it as a cash cow and winning is far less important then hitting projected profit margins.
I love the passion that everybody throws down.
ReplyDeleteTicket prices - they have jacked them anywhere from 1-20%. My unscientific survey indicates the meat of that is taking place in the expensive seats. My buddy's are club level 1st base 20th row, they're up 12%. Couple guys I've compared with are in that area. Its my belief they are only jacking upper level a tiny bit to cover for this increase.
The RDF crew: I have been told that Neukom's ouster was mainly to do with not kissing up enough, and acting like he owned the place. The part that I'm not sure about yet is apparently this was led by the 2-3%ers being very upset about unauthorized expenditure, not Johnson/Burns/PeteyM. Apparently they like to receive their dividend checks promptly. The only journalist collaboration on this I've seen is Ray Ratto a couple years ago.
Burns and Johnson are business partners going way back. It seems like Johnson is stepping up, as the Burns sisters are more interested in broadway plays than their parents interest of baseball. But instead of viewing those 2 families as separate entities, I would definitely view them as a bloc. The Burns sisters are practically his goddaughters. Johnson has increased his shares by buying out some (presumably more than half) of those shares.
Why is this important? Well, not sure. I think the public 130mm budget cap is a PR disaster, but that's their choice. Rainy Day Funds is code for taking profit. I'd much prefer just being honest - we're taking profit, that is our right as owners. I don't want the shiny FAs of 2011, I want a couple low profile improvements such as Paul Maholm and a RH bat, and maybe a better utility guy than Handy Manny. But that's small potatoes.
Cain and Timmy. If Larry Baer is for reals, they'll get em both. And then he'll get the huzzah. If they don't, and they walk, things get dicey. I will trust that is their intention until proven otherwise.
OGC/bacci - on Rowand & Sabey Sabes. Sorry, I'm just not buying Baggs throw-in on that. There is a solid line of evidence that starts with the pursuit of Lee/Soriano, Sabean's complete "stalking horse" saga, the Matthews Jr offer the next year where he spurned us, everything points to a perfect storm of frustration that ended with Warrior Spirit. The PR hijinks to do with that were PeteyM driven maybe, but Sabean has to wear Rowand. But as DrB said, let's move on. This is the last year of pain on that, and BPBZ ain't far behind.
Now can Rich Harden possibly be signed to a minor league deal and can he possibly stay healthy for once?
Read it and weep, bacci:
ReplyDeletehttp://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2011/09/sabean-cleared-by-baggerly-he-was-not.html
Sabean was NOT the lead in pursuing Rowand. If he had really wanted him, he would have been the lead. You act like you know Sabean, but you've been wrong about him for years now.
Pato, not that OGC needs any defending, but he is on the record wanting a big time owner such as Moreno or Cuban so as to not have penny pinching going on. I think framing the argument as "the Giants are cheap" instead of "What's the best long term strategy" is what's going on here. I think they are pursuing a sound long-term strategy by avoiding this class of free agents personally. Yes, we have to sign our pitchers, and there is risk of injury, it will be expensive and it may not happen. There is always risk, but I think the Brain Trust realizes how rabid fans are for those players, and that the Brain Trust themselves are proud of those players, and I think something will get done, until proven otherwise. Which will be a big time punch in the gut if it happens, but I don't think that "building an offense" is high on their list of reasons to go/stay.
ReplyDeleteCarlos the buzzkill. I keep going back to a couple of plays in my mind where he dogged it. It was very strange he didn't acknowledge the walkoff, even with a fistpump. He might have been in serious pain is the only thing I can think of. He's an aloof guy. He's been hit with the "unclutch" label that isn't entirely fair. The bat would play, but would the knees? Those icepacks while he's sitting in the dugout gave me pause as well. I am very glad we didn't go after Furcal, and I imagine if we got Beltran and then he got hurt, the immediate reaction would have been "Sabean's an idiot, he didn't just walk away from the trade, he had to get something for it". Sabean walked away. Or Beltran's demands were higher for the Giants, we won't know that one. C'est la guerre.
Gotta love it! At least we keep it a friendly discussion here without any F-bombs being thrown around. Yeah, the passion is terrific!
ReplyDeleteOh and Bacci,
ReplyDeleteI forgot to say I hope the holiday season is being good to you too. That goes as well for everybody that visits this site whether you comment or not.
Pato, it looks like your economics is pretty sound. Good memory! Here is how I see it, though.
ReplyDeleteFirst, the sell-outs are more a function of the Giants dynamic pricing plan, I believe, than demand. The Giants average ticket price is 10-20% less than other top teams. Not as cheap as the Angels, but still less.
Given all the complaints I see about high priced tickets, I figure that they pull the bulk of their money off the season ticket holders, then use promotions like the Lincecum strikeout discount and dynamic pricing, to price the tix low enough to sell out each and every game. Nothing boosts up interest and demand like sellouts, makes people look earlier and often to get the tickets before they sell out. But given the dichotomy between the complaints about ticket prices by season ticket holders and the reality that the average ticket is relatively low compared to other teams, I think that a lot of tickets are sold at some discount in order to ensure a sell-out and get the marketing buzz that generates.
And that makes economic sense, the seat don't generate any revenue unless there is a butt sitting in it, and there are the ancillary revenues like parking, food, drinks, souvenirs, so they price it really low, if any are left days to the game, to move the tickets.
Don't know if you recall, but most radio broadcasts usually had Jon and Dave touting that an upcoming series with Team X still have tickets available, get 'em now.
So I would proffer that demand is good but not overwhelming good where a 20% increase (from avg $26 to $31) would not have a deleterious effect on sales.
The product on the field in 2012 mainly sucked for one and only one reason: Buster Posey rehabbing and not starting. I analyzed on my website what difference having Posey in the lineup vs. WhiteWart, and came up with 7 wins (http://obsessivegiantscompulsive.blogspot.com/2011/11/posey-power-activated.html). That would have gotten us into the playoffs and instead of the Cards, it could have been us.
Winning puts a different take on things. Without Posey, the lineup struggled, and not surprisingly, you take a clean-up hitter and replace him with a below replacement hitter, what do you think will happen to any team's lineup?
Add to that Torres medical problems, Franchez's medical problems, Burrell's medical problems, Huff's fitness problems, and you have a storm of epic proportions.
As long as we have all our players and they play to their projections, we should win 90-95 games. I would take that and that will keep the fans in the ballpark.
Wow, I actually got cut off...
ReplyDeleteWhere was it...
It is both a business and a distraction. I provide the view of it as a business because I'm trying to give fans the perspective that an owner and management has, and maybe the average fan can understand why they did what they did. Whether you like it or not, that perspective affects what we see on the playing field. I also do it because that is my background and interests as well.
I understand the distraction perspective. I am a fan too. I have my t-shirts, jackets, hats, books. I'm looking at my smiling face pointing #1 next to the trophy in the memorabilia picture frame I bought (certified! :^)
What I don't understand is how anybody can't be excited over having Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner leading our rotation, Wilson and Romo in the pen, Sandoval and Posey in the middle of our lineup.
The Giants didn't tell the fans that half the rides are closing down, they said that they are working hard to keep the rides you love so much around for a long time, instead of investing in something new that could be a lousy ride.
Now, about the owners, we agree. They look at it more as a business. That's why I've been complaining about ownership since I first heard of the rainy day fund (which I had named "Maddux Money" in honor the guy they tried to acquire using those funds) and were told that we were not pursuing Vlad but was instead getting the seven dwarfs. I've been asking that a Silicon Valley billionaire step up and buy the team (Larry Ellison was my choice, then and now still).
I say my Thanks to the ownership team that kept the Giants in SF and built the beautiful park, but we need owners who hunger to win the championship now, not those who complain when the team hits them up for more money, an owner like the Angels, who will dig into his pocket to get a Vlad (he has purposefully keep Angels tickets low to have big crowds, which worked until 2011, prices are around $20 average). That is why I like Neukom, he gave me the feeling that he's going to do all he can to make things happen, like at least looking at ideas that are good baseball moves, even if the financials don't work.
Since we are talking business, I see the Giants like a start-up business. The original owners/entrepreneurs have taken the business as far as they can go now, and are holding back the potential of the business now. They need to sell to a big pocket owner who can cross the chasm and help them take those next big steps to a long lasting dynasty.
Plus, a deep pocket owner can eat contracts like that for breakfast and only have indigestion, not diarrhea, like the A's and have to flush out all their stars.
obsessive
ReplyDeleteyou are a sabean apologist...he can never do wrong by you
but facts are facts and rowand is the kind of player that sabean loves
so sabean took the lead on winn (same exact player, close to as bad of a contract) but we are to believe that he had no hand in the pursuit of rowand?
we are supposed to believe that peter the pink, who was all into branding, somehow thought that rowand would be a brand like zito?
give me a break
and like i said...two columnists...one being lowell cohn....totally disagree with baggs assertions on rowand
its really funny how sabean wins when he wont go after actual impact bats like vlad and carlos...but gets pushed aside when it comes to non impact players
think about it while you spend all of 2012 apologizing for him
Cut off again...
ReplyDeleteTo me, Vlad is worth skimping elsewhere for. Cuddyer and Kubel or even Beltran, not so much.
Those types of premier free agents like Vlad rarely come out on the market very often now, and the Giants have a nice set of position prospects that I think will be good enough with what we already have to win with.
Shuffling the deck to get Cuddyer, Kubel, even Beltran, are lateral moves that improves one area (offense) at the expense of other areas (fielding, pitching), it is just a zero sum game. Play the deck we were dealt, for the most part, get two new cards and see how our hand looks.
Again, if one can't get excited about a pitching staff that is generationally great, supported by a young core of Posey and Panda, then one is more of a fair weather fan, willing to ditch the team when it is faltering. Wishing for the Giants to risk the future, in order to provide excitement in 2012 is short-sighted, you have to look at the big picture, see that we got a great core and that we should move forward with that core intact and not risk anything to upset that.
And really, Cuddyer and Kubel are not exciting moves, to me. Since bacci brings him up, Randy Winn is actually a similar player to Cuddyer and Kubel, only his offense was equal or better than what they can do, plus he was great defensively in the corner OF and provided some speed.
Randy Winn was not exciting, but he was very productive for the Giants, by BB-Ref, he generated 8.9 WAR on that contract, was paid $23.25M for an average of $2.6M per WAR price, which was a bargain, even back then, at that price, he was well worth his salary, though he wasn't particularly exciting.
And for me, signing free agents isn't particularly exciting anymore. Not after the "excitement" of Alfonzo and Durhm, then the "excitement" of Benitez, Morris, Zito, Rowand.
Bore me with great prospects who rose through the ranks to become stars on our team, I find that exciting to me nowadays. Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner, Wilson, Romo, Sandoval, Posey. Hopefully Belt, Brown, Panik, Hembree, maybe others like Joseph, Susac, Oropesa, Surkamp, RafRod, Villalona.
As someone pointed out here recently, we could have a homegrown starting lineup soon:
Posey
Belt
Panik
Sandoval
Crawford
Peguero/Parker
Brown
Schierholtz
(or Joseph at 1B and Belt in LF)
Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Vogelsong
Surkamp
Wilson
Romo
Exciting times!
Yeah, bacci, Lowell Cohn, who was so good covering the Giants that the Chronicle never had him as the Giants beat writer, that I can recall, I only recall him writing general sports columns.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Baggarly is so well connected with the Giants that he's always scooping his fellow beat-writers to scoops about the Giants. And he's a current beat writer to boot, Cohn just took his old Chron column up to the Napa Valley.
And you will have to provide a link source for both Cohn and your other source which you didn't name, when did they say this and what did they say?
Peter the pink. That is simply awesome.
ReplyDeleteI'm going with Bacci on this one, Winn, Roberts, Rowand. The 2008 OF was one of the worst to wear the french vanilla. And yes, Freddy Lew was taking time away from Roberts taking bad routes to the ball in his cool sunglasses.
Unfortunately Baggs link isn't up anymore. I really view that as a convenient throw-in with Zito, and I really question what Baggs was doing and who supplied him with that information. The Giants were not in a position to compete, but they did have to have some player who could swing the lumber. This is where the phone booth's rep comes into play. The Phils definitely had a 3 year offer out for Rowand, maybe 4. I don't think it was for more than 8-10MM, but it was in that ballpark. So to win the bid, what do you need to do? Up the money, up the years. Once Gary Matthews Jr. spurned the chance to be a returning legacy, Pierre gets snagged by the Doyers, there wasn't much on the market. It neatly dovetails with the Pink's "new day for the Giants" which they played up, but I think the move itself is all Sabean.
You see his frustration about overbidding, having been used as leverage in other negotiations, and it has the very useful end effect of him shying away from all big contracts ever since. See, Warrior Spirit was useful after all.
On the conspiracy front, both Glenn Dickey and Lowell Cohn love to stir that pot. Now that they're boondocked its all about "powerful interests" that keep everybody from learning "the truth". A frequent poster on OBM who has his own site is very big on this. I think its pretty simplistic myself. Pink Pete definitely fell on his sword for something, and if it wasn't the Zito debacle, I can't think of anything else. Cost him his front car in the parade route.
ReplyDeleteThat said, I do think Baggs has his biases, and watches his p's and q's to maintain good relations. But he's not above busting managements balls when its needed. And he also was very harsh on Huff, even though he obviously likes him. Baggs was the first to notice how terrible my favorite whipping boy of last year, one Miguel Tejada, and he kept on it the whole year. Journos have their biases just like everybody else, sometimes it comes out.
So I don't have a lot of immediate source quotes OGC, but you go back and look at Sabean striking out on Lee and Soriano in 2006, followed by the Matthews whiff and Pierre going off the market, I think that sealed the deal on 5/60 (And the damn 8MM signing bonus) and here we are. Aren't we supposed to be moving on? Wasn't that at the top of DrB's article?
The secretive nature of a partnership coupled with Sabean's hilarious tightlip nature leads to some intrigue, that is for sure. I love to call the Giants the Monks of MLB, they do things just a little bit differently...
One more thing - bacci - careful with that 2012 apologizing stuff. I plan on spending 2012 apologizing for how awesome Angel Pagan is personally.
ReplyDeleteWell Baggs definitely did say that Zito and Rowand were ownership mandated signs. I would definitely trust Baggs' sources on that more than Lowell Cohn's. There is circumstantial evidence to back that up. The biggest one being the fact that Magowan is gone and Sabean is still sitting pretty.
ReplyDeleteI have a theory that Sabean had some friends in the ownership group, possibly even Larry Baer who he went to and basically said that if they wanted him to build a winner they had to get Magowan out of his hair. It was then Sabean who laid down the law on not signing FA's for more than 2 years with Daddy Neuks being the frontman for that. Of course I have no proof of all this. It's like a real-life fiction I've written in my head. There is definitely some reason why Sabes is still around though and it's not because he took to fall for the Zito/Rowand signings.
And yeah, guys, go back and read the top of my post. It really doesn't matter at this point, does it? Time to move on!
Shankbone,
ReplyDeleteYeah, I remember Pagan has been your guy from the day the season ended. I'm rooting for him to be awesome just so you get a chance to do the victory dance. Of course it would be great for all of us Giants fans too!
"The thought of George Sherrill or Dan Runzler facing Prince Fielder or Jay Bruce in the 8th inning with runners on base is just too sickening, and that doesn't even count the Miguel Monteros, Andre Ethiers or CarGones of the world....Do you really want to lose the advantage the Giants have in the late innings of close games against LH middle of the order bats?"
ReplyDeletePerhaps you should look at the history (and facts) before making some statements.
Let's just focus on Casilla and Runzler, since they are with the Giants:
Those five batters you refer to have combined to go 1-14 vs. Runzler, no walks and 4 strikeouts. Gonzalez is 0-6.
Not much better vs. Casilla: cumulatively 2-9.
I think most would be comfortable with those results.
And yes, it's a small sample size. That's what you get when short/situational matchups take place.
Those are the facts.
bacci, I am not a Sabean apologist. I did my research and because I did, I back Sabean. If I thought he made a stupid move, I would point it out. He is not perfect, I've noted many times that he has made a lot of mistakes in terms of free agents and did things I would not have done. But, in spite of his mistakes, I look at the big picture and the future is bright.
ReplyDeleteHere is the basic difference between what I say and what you and your ilk say.
I say that the Giants have a great core that will sustain us throughout this decade, that the Giants will the be Team of the 2010's, with ownership stepping up and keeping the young guys around. I look at the big picture.
You and your ilk talk all the time about mistakes Sabean has done in the past, mistakes you think he will make in the future, mistakes he did in the past, mistakes you are afraid that he will make in the future, and did I mention mistakes he made in the past?
I would hate to be in a relationship with any of the Sabean detractors. It would be tiring having the baggage of having my litany of mistakes being recited to me ad nauseum. That is probably why all those people with perfect memories never can sustain a long relationship, mistakes are long remembered, long nagged upon, until the relationship breaks (there was a piece on that on the CBS 60 Minutes program, with Marliu Henner).
As DrB started this post: move on. Then take a pause, see what really exists and not what you think exists. It might be prove to be a revelation.
Then again, you have been reading here for a while now, and yet you cling to your position as strong as any barnacle.
At least I can offer rational reasons for my position. I have my business plan explaining all the reasons and research supporting those reasons why I believe the Giants (and Sabean) are on the right track with what they are doing. I wrote that partly because I love working on business plans, but mostly because I find myself needing to explain everything to detractors like you and after explaining myself for the umpteen millionth time at MCC, I put together the business plan so I can just direct people there.
What can you offer me? Besides that he has made mistakes. Everybody has made mistakes. You have to look at the big picture, that is what DrB and I have been saying very consistently at our blogs.
He built the team first by pitching, because the draft is horrible for finding talent quickly, so he focused on an asset that will build up the team quicker, without mismatched assets (like two good firstbasemen), as each good pitcher can slot into many spots.
In addition, by building a top pitching staff, anchored by a generally strong fielding team, that enables the team to win sooner because it does not take a stellar offense to win with a great defense, in fact, it reduces the run environment enough that even lousy offenses can win with it.
Once the pitching is done, then they can focus more on the offensive side.
As I outlined above, the Giants could soon be mostly homegrown talent and controlled to at least 2016, assuming Lincecum and Cain are signed to long term deals and Sandoval too.
What is not to like? What is not to be excited about? Oh, but he made mistakes! Move on.
For a young pitcher with aspirations of the HOF, ERA is nice, but it is wins that get you in Cooperstown.
ReplyDeleteShankbone, I did move on, with my post that I provided a link to above, but a commenter (and you) wouldn't let me, both of you challenged whether Baggs was reporting correct information or not, calling it BS. Hard to move on when that happens. So I responded to those assertions. And so the conversion continued. And I just suppose to stay quiet and move on, or am I allowed to respond to what I think is a wrong position?
ReplyDeleteI am more than happy to move on. Baggs is not the be-all and end-all, but he reported that several Giants AND League sources told him this. He could have been vague like a lot of journalists and just say "sources" but he made a point of listing more detail.
Nobody has shown me Cohn's rumor yet (and the Press Democrat doesn't block their old content like the Merc, so it should be easier, or just give me a date) and the other source that I assume was meant to mean that two people saying that is false leads to Baggs being false. Give me a link, date, something. I can be persuaded by good info.
But see, here we have Baggerly, baseball beat writer, travels the MLB, makes a lot of contact in high and low places with MLB connections, that has been his job for a long time now (10-12 years?) and he felt sure enough about his sources to go with putting this into print, which is not a small thing to a journalist, I think, and he detailed it a bit too.
On the other hand, we have Cohn, who, as far as I know, has never been a baseball beat writer, at best, if he were, that was over 20 years ago, who does not travel in MLB circles and the best I can say about his sources is that as the Chron's columnist, he might have some friends in the Giants front office who can give him good info. That info, could be biased, I'm sure there are Sabean detractors within the Giants.
Just as I can see Giants sources being biased positively towards Sabean, they could be Sabean cronies. So it becomes he said, she said.
But league sources confirmed that as well, according to Baggs. How would they be biased towards Sabean? How could they be Sabean apologists?
Maybe you or bacci can tweet Baggs and challenge his research sources by saying that Lowell Cohn says otherwise. I would love to see his answer to that.
It would also help to see some links, so I can judge what was said myself. Sorry, but I've been like that since I was rebutted with "stats" but then when I went to research it myself, I found that it was false, that the person made up the information. That is why I like to provide links to what I'm talking about, and why I hate the Merc's policy of taking down content after 7 days.
And thank you DrB for adding the survivor factor, had forgotten that: Sabean survived the purge. Have to think that if he had any sort of hand with either of those deals that he would have been gone with Magowan, as a pair, instead of just ol' Pete. That logic makes perfect sense to me.
Hey now, hey now. I put in the survivor factor as well. And I acknowledged that Cohn and Dickey are both a bit wacky. I remain unconvinced about Rowand while acknowledging that Zito doomed PeteyM. There is too much circumstantial evidence, that I outlined up above, that Sabean was chasing free agents with money to burn. Orders to burn it as well? Most likely.
ReplyDeleteI remember reading the article, I was not convinced on the Rowand front at the time. League sources is a very vague definition. I'm agreeing with you about Cohn, and throwing in Dickey as well. Sabean survived due to his relationship with Larry Baer, sounds good. I think he also survived because he kicked much ass in his first 7 years at the healm, and they decided there wasn't any point in throwing him out while they were trying something new, he could take the blame any time. The drafting of Lincecum saved his job. And that is ALL him, people who try to take that away from him are complete jackholes. That was a ballsy decision that he scouted himself. And that is actually the biggest reason for the confidence I have for the re-signing, I think Sabean does have a good relationship and fondness for "his guys" - Cain and Timmy.
Lastly, Sabean carried the ownerships water for my golden warrior Vlad. I think he definitely wanted him and was told no go. Am I sure of this? Nope. That quote, such a crazy great quote that has been getting abused this year, is just classic Sabean. But I think its him covering for skinflints.
On that note, I got guests arriving for some foolishness. Have a great holiday, looking forward to baseball and a bit of arguing in the new year. Or tomorrow.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteI don't know how much you've seen Runzler or Sherrill pitch, but if you want them facing key batters in late inning high leverage situations, then I'm not sure we have any common ground for a discussion at all. Runzler may eventually get to that point, but he's far from there yet. Yes, he abused CarGone last year to the point he put CarGone into a 2 month long slump. The problem is he can't be counted on to do that on a regular basis. As you pointed out yourself, sample size, sample size, sample size.
The other problem, which you failed to address is most switch-hitters are more comfortable hitting from the left side, so it's useful to leave a LOOGY in against switch-hitters to force them to hit from the right side. Affeldt and Lopez have a big edge here. In addition, you may have an inning where the first batter hits LH the second RH and the third LH again. You want to leave your LOOGY in against the middle RH batter so you don't waste another pitching change. Again, Lopez and Affeldt would be the guys you prefer for that. So there is a lot more to it that just how they might do against certain LH batters.
I agree that they had to keep Lopez but another 5 mil for Affeldt to me is overkill when the offense clearly needed more upgrading. Having 2 good LOOGY pitchers is more of a luxury then a necessity especially for a team with such glaring weakness on offense. They could have given Runzler a chance to fill the role on the cheap in low stress situations to see how he does. Honestly, how many high stress innings did Affeldt have last year? Lopez was the late inning LOOGY just about every time and Affeldt was put in situations with big leads or deficits. He didn't exactly blow away the league either, every pitch with him was an adventure.
ReplyDeleteI think there was a huge uproar amongst the Sabean detractors when a certain trade was made for a second LOOGY in 2010. How did that turn out?
ReplyDeleteI'm confused. I thought Beltran is exactly the type of player the lunatic fringe was so dead set agaisnt - well past his prime (age 35, I believe), on the decline, injury prone (he even missed a couple or three very important weeks with us after we acquired him), expensive. And I thought Melky and Pagan were the type of players he was SUPPOSED to get - young, coming into prime, affordable, controllable, healthy...
ReplyDeleteIsn't the stronger argument that Cabrera is likely to produce much more than Beltran - just because he is likely to play 155 games whereas Beltran is likely to play 110 games?
Even the starting point of the LF is suspect. Pato, for example just assumes, without any factual predicate, that "the offense clearly needed more upgrading." I don't think that is clear at all. I am well aware the team scored the lowest number of runs in MLB. Despite that fact they won about 86 games, finished 2nd, were in it until Beltran got hurt/mid August. The key is "why were so few runs scored?" 1) Posey lost for 75% of season, 2) Franchez lost for bulk of season, 3) Torres with awful year, 4) Huff out of shape, unproductive year, 5) Belt doesn't produce, 6) SS, 2b replacements don't produce. Many of those are likely already fixed: 1) Posey expected back and healthy, 2) Franchez expected back and healthy, 3) Torres replaced by more productive, younger player, who does not have the tricky mental condition, 4) Huff committed to getting, staying in shape, 5) the black hole that was LF is filled with a young, fast, excellent player, with both D & O.
This team should have about - or slightly above - MLB O next year. By keeping the pitching, we have to be the favorite. Inserting Beltran for either Pagan or Cabrera is short time and short sighted. Short term because the guy is 35 and steaming towards retirment. Short sighted as he is no longer a defensive force and no longer an every day player. The 2 young, healthy, entering their prime, affordable, controllable OFs added to the roster add far more and over a longer period of time - without the worries of when - not if - the production falls back to average.
Bravo, allfrank, bravo! I wish I said that.
ReplyDeleteBeltran's bat would sure look good in the lineup. I have advocated for signing him as long as it was under 3 years so those criteria were met. We do have to remember, though, that Beltran is far from a sure thing to stay healthy. I'm guessing that after last year, health risk is a much bigger issue with Sabes than it has been in the past. Remember, this guy's pattern is to keep doing what works until it doesn't work. He has tended to ignore injury history and treat players who have it as undervalued commodities with a mixed track record. Health was such a big issue last year though I wouldn't be surprised if Sabes now overcompensates and avoids players he perceives as injury risks like the plague for awhile.
ReplyDeleteI'll just add one thing here. Sabean has made mistakes and he also has a long history of going against the grain of sabermetric theory, even though there is evidence that he is ahead of the curve in certain sabermetric categories. The Sabean detractors certainly have plenty of ammunition if it comes down to a trench war of examining every move he's made in his tenure.
I still maintain that Sabean's best defense is to stand back and look at the big picture. He's the most successful GM in the history of the franchise since John McGraw. The Giants have one of the best young homegrown cores in the game today. They have a strong scouting, drafting and minor league track record and there appear to be more players in the pipeline to help in the near future.
Once again, the Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball.
Dr B., I don't recall a whole lot of noise made when Lopez was acquired for the stretch run in 2010, in fact I remember the move going mostly unnoticed. He actually took over what Affeldt did for us the year before making Affeldt a little obsolete.
ReplyDeleteKnowing what we all know about LOOGYS, they can be great one year and flame out the next so why invest 5 million in a guy who just had 2 questionable years in a row? I realize his stats weren't horrible last year but if you watched every game like I did, you recall that every single time he came in a game it was an adventure.
So my solution isn't all that ridiculous when you consider the upside of a guy like Runzler and the actual impact he would have on games knowing that the 8th and 9th are locked down, we have other pitchers like Casilla and Mota who aren't horrible against lefties for the 6th and 7th, and his role would be limited to situations where he wouldn't have the opportunity to blow a game up.
allfrank, my factual predicate for bitching about the lineup needing upgrading is based on a lot of different things as well as my assumptions which all of us have and express. Without assumptions we would all just be talking about the past and not the future of the Giants since none of us actually know the future... anybody a fortune teller out there?
FACT - The offense sucked last year.
FACT - Sanchez and Posey are coming off of serious injuries which could affect their production and health this year.
FACT - Beltran is gone and no matter how you feel about him, he could have been the best hitter in our lineup this year.
FACT - Of the returning cast, none did particularly well against left handed pitching. Huff, Panda, Belt, Crawford, even Pagan, and Melky will likely be less productive against lefties this year then against righties.
FACT - The areas in the lineup that worked in 2010 but were horrible in 2011 (leadoff with Torres and 5th with Huff), aren't clearly better this year.
FACT - Our middle of the infield is one tweak away from being exposed. Our success is hinging on fragile fred and a kid who can't hit anything harder then 92 mph. I would have spent 5 million on Barmes before keeping Affeldt around.
I would argue that the lineup is very similar to what we had last year, here is how I broke it down:
Leadoff - Pagan is a question mark. I heard a scout for the Mets say that Pagan prefers to bat 2nd not leadoff. He may not do all that much better then what Torres did last year.
2-hole - Freddy if healthy should be fine and Melky could also bat here.
3-hole - Panda? You could argue that this is a downgrade from last year with Beltran in the 3 hole and Panda at cleanup. If Beltran would have been our best hitter then without him in the 3 hole we are worse here.
Cleanup - Posey for the entire year we can say is about the same as what we had last year with Posey and Panda here most of the year.
5th-hole - Huff still or maybe if Belt or Melky light it on fire they bat 5th but neither is a lock. Melky has never had a year like last year and Belt hasn't proven he can hang yet.
6th-hole - Melky should be an upgrade here although Nate did pretty well last year in the first half cleaning up after Huff.
7th-hole - Nate dropping down will be an upgrade.
8th-hole - Crawford will struggle and be worse then anyone who batted here last year including either catcher.
So in a long winded way I think I have explained myself and concerns for the lineup enough to the point that they shouldn't just be chalked up to assuming without factual predicate. This lineup has no clear upgrade over last year and last year they were horrible thus this year could likely be more of the same.
On a side note, I really enjoy everyones opinions here and it is great to talk ball with individuals who are as educated and well spoken as many of the guests here. Happy holidays to everyone and I look forward to more spirited discussions next year!!
Pato,
ReplyDeleteOne thing you need to clarify is whether you are comparing 2012 lineup to pre-Beltran or post-Beltran because there is a pretty big difference. I look at the 2012 lineup and see a pretty big upgrade on the pre-Beltran lineup. Maybe about the same as post-Beltran to maybe a slight upgrade.
Again, we don't have to hope for career years from everybody. If, on average, everybody hits to their projections/career averages, the Giants will be just fine.
The achilles heel is if one of the big 3 pitchers, Cain, Timmy or Bum go down for the count with an injury. I'm pretty sure that would be a blow they couldn't overcome.
I would also argue that there probably isn't a team in the league that wouldn't trade their pitching staff for ours straight up but I can't think of many if any (maybe the Mets!) who would trade us straight up offense for offense. Take a look at our OF and compare it to other teams OF in the rest of the league. Look at positions like 1B where most teams get their 3-4-5 hitters and look what we have to offer. I love Panda and Posey but compare their numbers to most 3 or 4 hitters on good teams.
ReplyDeleteWe can talk about projections all day but bottom line is we still don't have a single player that causes any opposing pitcher to lose sleep! Fact is that we have a warped sense of what an offense should be because our pitching is so good we don't need as many runs as other teams and we have grown so accustomed to not scoring runs that we are immune to pathetic lineups and have forgotten what it is like to have a player hit 30 HR's.
We deserve more is the bottom line and when 40 mil is spent on 2 guys who don't contribute, it is hard to say our GM is doing a great job. This team could be so good it isn't even funny but we all have to sit back and watch Sabes do the bare minimum and hope it works out.
Dr. B, I am comparing to both pre and post Beltran because I don't see a huge difference in either. Beltran and Posey kind of cancel themselves out. Keppinger and Sanchez almost cancel themselves out. The one run games we were winning in the first half cancel out the ones we lost in the second half. I see a team that struggled offensively throughout the entire year and I don't see anything from what we did this offseason to believe this team is all that different.
ReplyDeletePato,
ReplyDeleteI completely disagree that the Giants don't have any hitters that pitchers lose sleep over. I firmly believe that both Panda and Posey fit that description.
As for the $40 M on the 2 players who aren't contributing, please, time to move on! Those players were signed 5 and 6 years ago. The Giants have won a world series with those same contracts on board.
OK, I guess there were actually 3 lineups last year. The pre-Posey injury lineup, the post-Posey injury lineup then the Beltran lineup. I would argue that Melky and Pagan are highly likely to be upgrades on Torres and Ross. Huff is either going to be better or he's gonna sit so the 2012 lineup is likely to be better than the pre-Posey injury lineup. If that's about equal to the Beltran lineup, then it's an upgrade on that too. I agree it's a modest upgrade but an upgrade.
As you have pointed out, with the Giants pitching, that's really all they need. It's not realistic to think that at team is going to have both an offense and pitching equal to the quality of the Giants pitching. Gotta compromise somewhere. Me? I'll take the pitching, thank you!
Pato - there are definite question marks heading into the season almost across the board with the Giants. Coupled with the Aces contracts situation, its natural to be uneasy. I just gravitate towards optimism over the world caving in.
ReplyDeletePosey - he's on the mend, the Giants don't really have much choice with Wonderboy, he's our best player and the glue. You have to assume he's coming back, or trade for some crappy alternative. His R/L splits - the BA is down against lefties, but the slugging is up. Do not discount Hector Sanchez forcing the issue at spring training. I think he will do exactly that.
Huff - he's sober and fit, according to Bochy. Don't need the 2010 year, the career average of 279/342/808 will do fine. If this doesn't materialize, you have Posey/Belt/Pill as alternatives to find production. He has slightly down BA and SLG, but he holds his own against lefties.
Sanchez - I agree with you on this one. The backup plan is Fontenot, who I like, and Burriss, who's bat is nonexistent up to this point. Freddy absolutely mashes lefties.
Crawford - I like him more than most. He's projected at 232/297/340 SLG by Bill James. So far he has struggled mightily versus lefties. As long as he fields his position, any improvement with the bat will make him a cheap value play, better than what the Giants have been getting.
Sandoval. Here is where we strongly disagree. Sando will absolutely strike fear in pitchers, and he is primed to take a huge step forward from an already lofty place. He does "struggle" versus lefties, but career 295/338/774 isn't "bad". He will have to do some heavy lifting for sure.
The OF. Melky & Pagan are both better hitting lefthanded, that is true. I think Pagan is going to be just fine in the leadoff spot. Everybody is so down on Melky Cabrera, but what if, what if, he keeps up this 330 BABIP, a full 10% raise off his career norm. What if, what if, he actually hits over 300? Pagan and Cabrera are key, if they are able to get on base, there is your improvement in offense, right there. I am betting they will be able to, they will be able to run the bases better than any Giants in the past few years, and I'm betting they take our offense to this magical league average.
After thinking about it a lot, and dreading the predictable ex-Oakland A's signings that didn't come, I am extremely enthusiastic about the OF. They are serious upgrades in team speed, baserunning, fielding to a degree, and whatever amount of success they have with BA/OBP will directly effect the ability to score runs.
Finally, we have Schierholtz and that poor misunderstood kid from Texas. As DrB pointed out, Belt's projections were not far off of Beltran's, just a lower BA. If the Giants feel he can adjust, there is your big improvement right there. In the meantime, poor old Nate the Great will toil on until he gets thrown back to part time 4th OF duty. He struggles against lefties, but Belt has astonishingly good splits, in a small sample size.
You and I both wanted Cuddyer. Campy talked me out of him based on baserunning/defense, as well as my own home/road splits nervousness. I think you haven't given up the love. Would it be nice to have a right handed utility bat? Yup. But its not essential.
Too much said already, I'll hold off on the LOOGY stuff. I agree with DrB completely about it though, Dan Runzler in a leveraged situation scares me to death.
We're cheaping out on the IF utility, possibly the 4th OF, and the 5th starter really needs to be addressed. But overall, this is a good squad.