Friday, November 18, 2011

Down on the Farm: Left Handed Starting Pitcher Depth Chart

There isn't as compelling a reason to separate starting pitchers by handedness, but to break up the category into more manageable segments, we'll go ahead and do it anyway. The Giants stable of LH starting pitching prospects has thinned considerably with the graduation of Madison Bumgarner, the release of Clayton Tanner and the trade of Ryan Verdugo. Let's take a look at what's left:

AAA

Matt Yourkin Covered in the LH relievers post. He could be an emergency callup option in event of injury but is probably behind Surkamp and Runzler there. Runzler was also covered in the LH reliever post. His role in the Giants organization remains fluid.

AA

Eric Surkamp 6'4", 190 lbs. BD: 7/16/1987. AA 10-4, 2.02, 142.1 IP, 44 BB, 165 K's. MLB 2-2, 5.74, 26.2 IP, 17 BB, 13 K's. Surkamp, once again, put up dominating numbers in the minors averaging well over 1 K/IP. He is reputed to have a dominating curveball and an adequate FB that he can use to set up the curveball. He failed to demonstrate those qualities in a late season callup for the Giants. The FB sat 88-90 and the curveball looked a bit tight and flat to me. He also had serious command issues with all pitches and as a rook didn't get much help from the umps. Whether it was rookie jitters and trying to do too much or whether he was just wearing down at the end of a long season remains to be seen. He will likely start 2012 in Fresno's rotation and be first in line for a callup depending on his results there.

HIGH A

Kelvin Marte 6'0", 180 lbs. BD: 11/24/1987. 12-6, 3.47, 147.2 IP, 47 BB, 84 K's, GO/AO= 1.75. Marte had a solid season for the Little Giants. I saw him pitch while sitting right behind home plate and got a pretty good read on his stuff. I was surprised that his FB sat at 92-93 MPH. The RC Quakes pitch trackers were sitting right behind me and were calling the velocities on each pitch. Marte also displayed a nice crisp breaking ball in the mid 80's and a changeup in the upper 70's that he was able to throw for strikes. Physically, he reminds me a lot of Odalis Perez who used to pitch for the Dodgers. He could have a future as a #4 or #5 starter.

LOW A

Mike Kickham 6'4", 205 lbs. BD: 12/12/1988. 5-10, 4.11, 111.2 IP, 37 BB, 103 K's, GO/AO= 1.46. Throughout his college and pro career, Kickham has tended to put up better peripheral numbers than ERA's. He's a physically gifted pitcher with an apparent high ceiling. He finished the season strong for Augusta putting up a line of 4-5, 3.25, 55.1 IP, 13 BB, 40 K's, GO/AO= 2.36 over his last 10 games. His ERA as slightly over 2 over his last 6 starts. I'm looking forward to seeing him pitch for San Jose next season.

ROOKIE AZL

Edwin Escobar 6'1", 185 lbs. BD: 4/22/1992. Low A 1-3, 18.00, 6 IP, 5 BB, 5 K's. AZL 2-4, 5.09, 46 IP, 17 BB, 42 K's. VWL 0-0, 5.59, 9.2 IP, 5 BB, 4 K's. Escobar pitched decently for the AZL Giants after washing out of Low A. Best thing going for him is he's still quite young.

Paul Davis 6'2", 210 lbs. BD: 1/29/1990. Rookie AZL 0-0, 3.44, 36.2 IP, 11 BB, 27 K's. SS 1-0, 1.64, 11 IP, 3 BB, 9 K's. Drafted out of JC ball, this was his first pro experience which looked somewhat promising.

DSL

Adalberto Mejia 6'3", 195 lbs. BD: 6/20/1993. 5-2, 1.42, 76 IP, 8 BB, 71 K's. I know it's the DSL but Mejia is one of the Giants 6 figure bonus babies from the international market and he certainly lived up to that reputation in his pro debut. He was putting up downright unbelieveable numbers before allowing 6 of his 12 ER and 3 of his 8 BB's in his last 2 starts. I've seen his name on the Giants Instructional League roster, so expect to see him pitching in the States in 2012, most likely the AZL.

Emmanuel De Jesus 6'0", 175 lbs. BD: 1/6/1994. 4-2, 1.74, 46.2 IP, 20 BB, 59 K's. De Jesus was the other LHP who created a buzz down in the DSL. He struggled in 2 bullpen appearances but then put up crazy numbers in 8 starts allowing just 3 ER in 43 IP with 12 BB, and 56 K's. That's all I know about him but the numbers are sure exciting.

2011 DRAFTEES

Josh Osich 6'3", 225 lbs. BD: 9/3/1988. OSU 6-4, 3.64, 76.2 IP, 34 BB, 79 K's. Osich was a redshirt junior for Oregon State coming off TJ surgery. He was not allowed to throw breaking balls until late in the season, so worked exclusively off a FB that sat at 93-94 MPH peaking at 97 as well as an excellent changeup. His stock peaked when he pitched a CG no-hitter against UCLA and was talked about as a possible first round pick by the Giants who were reported to be scouting him heavily. His velocity an stock dropped off at that end of the season and there were questions about his medical status. I read one report that the Giants received their final medical report after the draft had started! They ended up grabbing him in round 6. If he's healthy, that should be one of steals of the draft.

Here's how I rank 'em:

1. Eric Surkamp
2. Mike Kickham
3. Adalberto Mejia
4. Josh Osich(might have been #1 if proven healthy and if he had pitched in the pros)
5. Emmanuel De Jesus
6. Kelvin Marte
7. Paul Davis
8. Edwin Escobar
9. Matt Yourkin

Not a long list, but some interesting prospects. I toyed with ranking Mejia #1, but probably should see what he does in the States first.

15 comments:

  1. This is the only thing about the Melky trade that rankles me - Verdugo gave us some depth. Why can't Sabean get a team to throw somebody in for US once in a while? Kickham where it hurts! I totally agree on your assessment of Surkamp, and if his strikeout pitch is a curve he is nervous to throw as well as getting squeezed by umps, everybody needs to lighten up on him. We could have another Woody on our hands with better velocity.

    So big news DrB - the G's dfa'd Ford and Joaquin, and 40'd up a ton: Culberson, Otero, Correa, Kieschnick, Graham and... wait for it... Villalona! I'm shocked that I was more right than wrong in my predictions. Baggs has a story up on it.

    Speaking of lefties - what do you think about Andrew Miller, failed lefty on the Bosox? I'm trolling for reclamation projects to compete with the 126MM Avocado Man.

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  2. wow

    villalona to 40 man...ford dfa

    now this is a shocker

    want another one? verdugo got put on the kc 40 man...great for him, but that says to me that kc is thin at lefties and sabean shouldve gotten another throw in

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  3. this from schulman

    Villalona, Graham, Culberson, Correa, Otero and Kieschnick. Designate Joaquin and Ford

    joaquin i kinda understand....

    dont get protecting villalona and dfa'ng ford

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  4. Drb, thanks for providing these great rundowns by position. I'm curious as to why 2011 6th round pick Josh Osich was left off both the Left hand relief and starting pitching lists. Is it due to his health issues? How do you see the Giants bringing Osich along in his 1st minor league season?

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  5. Forgot about Osich, sorry. I'll add him in. He actually might be #1 assuming he's healthy. Thanks for the pickup on that.

    Wow, didn't realize those missed years would count as service time for the Rule 5. At least the Giants did their homework on that one. Personally, I like Joaquin better than Otero or Graham and would have kept him on the 40 man. I guess they got away with releasing him once. They'll try their luck again.

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  6. I could have sworn that the Giants had signed Miller to some sort of deal before, but I cannot find it. Maybe they were just rumored.

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  7. Andrew Miller? No, I don't think the Giants have ever signed him. He would be a great guy to try to sell on the idea that the Giants know how to fix pitchers and bring in on a minor league deal though.

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  8. BTW, Dontrelle Willis signed a minor league deal with the Giants expressly because of their reputation for fixing pitchers. Even though he didn't do much with the Giants and eventually moved on, he landed with Cincinnati and pitched 9 QS out of 13 starts with them, so maybe there's something to that theory. I've always thought the Giants success with pitchers had more to do with scouting and signing the right pitchers rather than fixing bad ones, but maybe their coaches know something about techniques that they are able to teach?

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  9. Interesting observation in one of the comments on another website (I forgot which one). Even thought the risk of Giants losing any one in the Major League portion of the Rule 5 is minute, the risk that the Giants losing players in the Minor League portion of the Rule 5 is significant. Therefore, the Giants should be putting as many players as possible onto the 40 man which frees up space in the AAA roster to protect more minor league players, and so on down the chain. Is there any information on who the Giants are protecting in the Minor League portion of the draft?

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  10. I don't think teams specifically protect players at any given level in the minor league phase of Rule 5. What they do is protect a certain number of players, like 100 or something like that and if a player isn't on that protected list, they can be drafted and assigned to any level. Really, the players available in the minor league phase are mostly very fringy at best. The Giants got Eugenio Velez in the minor league phase one year. I think they go Justin Dowdy that way last year and he's a minor league FA this year.

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  11. I doubt any one of our players that are unprotected except Darren Ford could stick on a 25 man roster. Ford could stick as a pinch runner/defensive replacement for another team. Personally I am not sad because although he is fast his caught stealing ratio was bad. Hindsight being 20/20 we should have protected Joe Paterson last year and we wouldn't have needed to sign both Affeldt and Lopez. Paterson has worked out well for the D Backs as a LOOGY. I am pretty sure any of the unprotected players we have will be returned if they are chosen. None of them were in our 2012 plans anyway. I wish I could find a list of available players the Giants could snag in order of talent. That would be interesting. Maybe there is a decent SS someone doesn't need because he is getting blocked by someone like Tulowitski or Andrus.

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  12. Roger - Andrus is blocking a total stud SS, but he will be protected for sure. Any SS worth anything will be protected, the Giants were quick with Adrianza and Crawford for example, even though both rep as all glove no bat.

    Joe Paterson should have been protected, but he may not be at the same level as Affeldt or Lopez yet. If we are making the assumption of being playoff contenders, that is an important consideration. Still, they need some more lefties in the pipeline, as DrB stated.

    DrB/OGC - yeah, I'm thinking of the Gints rep as pitcher whisperers for sure with Andrew Miller. In 2007 he slotted between Timmy and Kershaw, he's only 26 and while he's put up terrible numbers so far, he's a 1st round talent. Most important, he's a tall lefty, and at 26 you shouldn't give up on that. I don't know much about him, but I do know the Giants tried to sign him last year when Boston traded for him then cut him (ultimately he re-upped, he is currently a dfa candidate for them). Others I'm thinking about are Kazmir, Accardo, Aardsma, Bedard. I agree the Giants seem to be able to scout the best guys, and then tweak some, that order of importance. Willis is an interesting example.

    I don't think Runzler is ready to be a starter or that LOOGY over Lopez/Affeldt, but I do know that practically every trade the Giants make he's asked for first, before we ship off some other guy or tell the opposing GM thanks but no thanks. Will it turn gold or Hinshaw? Time will tell...

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  13. Oh, and off the LH starter topic, but my guy Clint Barmes is gone to the Bucs to be a starter it seems DrB. Our ex-pirate dreams are getting smashed. 2 things about that: 1, this market is officially out of control, re-sign the Hobbit and even Keppinger and be done with it, and 2. this looks like Sabean is telling the FAs they will be in a caddy/backup roll at SS and backup at 2B, meaning Crawford may be legit (for as long as Bochy deems OK, careful with these caddys here Sabey Sabes). In that light, I like our guys over somebody like Alex Gonzo or Ronny Codeno because there is more of a chance of Bochy actually benching Hobbit/Keppinger. I think. Who knows. I do know Crawford (and Belt) had better perform when called upon, from the start. Vets get rope, rooks do not.

    Also, I really like Josh Osich. Hope his health wins out and he's a huge steal.

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  14. Thanks for the comments, everybody! I'm thinking the Oakland A's might be an interesting landing spot for Darren Ford. Billy Beane seems to have suddenly developed in interest in speedy no-hit guys who can steal bases. The A's currently have only Ryan Sweeney under contract in the OF for next season, so there's opportunity to give Darren some AB's and see what he can do with it.

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  15. Almost a lock for Ford to the A's DrB. Beane swooped up Rajah Davis with a quickness. And he has been trying to emulate Sabey Sabes in everything lately, especially his (failed) attempts at UZR and team defense. I'd be upset if this was Torres. Thanks for the mad scramble against CO in 2010 Ford, I hope you learn how to hit at a MLB level, hardest thing to do in the world, but not holding my breath.

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