Thursday, June 2, 2011

Scouting the Draft: Ranking the RHP's

First a couple of notes:

There's in interesting tidbit on sfgiants.com from Giants Director of Scouting, John Barr. He says the Giants have 800 players ranked on their draft board and will draft BPA all the way. He also said that he is confident that at least one player who they have ranked in their top 15 will be there at #29. This may mean they are willing to go well above slot for a signing bonus and are looking to grab someone who falls due to signability concerns or it may mean they have some players ranked a lot higher than they think other teams do. Intriguing!

Draft analysts like John Sickels and BA are apparently getting strong vibes that a lot of teams are unexpectedly targeting position players in the first round, possibly thinking the draft is so deep in pitching they will still be able to get high ceiling pitchers later in the draft. If that's the case, there could be a bonanza of high ceiling pitching available in the 29-49 range where the Giants have their first round and supplemental round picks.

On with the RHP rankings, as always, based on BA's rankings:

First Round:

1. Gerrit Cole, UCLA- 6-7, 3.28, 107 IP, 23 BB, 108 K's. Didn't even let the Yankees make an offer when they drafted him late in the first round out of high school. Now will likely go #1 or #2 overall in this draft. Got hit a little bit in the second half of this season, but a premium talent who should be a MLB star if not a HOF'er.

2. Trevor Bauer, UCLA- 12-2, 1.27, 127.2 IP, 34 BB, 189 K's!! There are people out there who like Bauer better than Cole. There are other teams out there who don't have him on their draft board at all because he insists on long-tossing! How inflexible and stupid is that? It's really a shame that some team is going to take him before the Giants have a chance. He's a slightly bigger clone of Tim Lincecum. The Giants would be a perfect team for him and he would be a perfect pick for them. Alas, it won't happen!

3. Dylan Bundy, HS- There are some people who think Bundy might be the best pitcher in the draft, period. He's hit triple digits on radar guns multiple times with K/BB's that are off the charts. He's a workout freak and already has a plus curveball and cutter with an average changeup. Won't be there at #29!

4. Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt- 10-3, 2.12, 101.2 IP, 39 BB, 112 K's. This is a guy who might fall, due to his height(5'11") but probably not as far as to #29. Best pitch is a power curveball to go with a fastball that gets up to 97 MPH. The changeup needs work.

5. Taylor Jungmann, Texas- 13-0, 0.95, 122.2 IP, 27 BB, 116 K's. He's been a stud since he was a freshman. FB isn't quite in the class as the top 4, sitting at 91-93 topping out at 95, but he makes up for it with his height(6'6") and downhill plane with the ability to keep the ball low. Relies on the FB but the slider is improved and the changeup is improving. Another possible slider but probably not to #29.

6. Taylor Guerrieri, HS- A late bloomer whose fastball gets up to 98 MPH. He may end up falling back down due to off-field incidents that raise character issues. The Giants don't have a history of drafting players with known makeup issues.

7. Archie Bradley, HS- Athletic projectable body with a FB that goes 92-98 MPH. He's a highly rated football QB recruit to Oklahoma so will take a lot of $$ to sign. That can be a plus though, because there is a special exemption for 2 way prospects that allows the bonus to be spread out over 5 years. Again, will probably go well before #29.

8. Matt Barnes, Connecticut- 11-3, 1.12, 112.1 IP, 28 BB, 105 K's. Great pitcher's frame at 6'4", 205 lbs. FB sits 92-96 with a peak of 98. Most mocks have him projected mid first round but has an outside chance of falling to #29 if there is a big run on position players. He would be a very solid choice.

9. Jose Fernandez, HS- a Cuban refugee who comes with some questions about his age which is already listed as older than most HS graduates at 19. At 6'3", 235 lbs, weight is also a concern for the future. Has 3 "swing and miss pitches" FB 90-95 with heavy sink plus a slider and curve that sometimes morph into a slurve. There is enough great pitching available in this draft that I would probably stay away.

10. Alex Meyer, Kentucky- 7-5, 2.94, 101 IP, 46 BB, 110 K's. Huge 6'9", 220 lb power pitcher whose FB sits in the mid-upper 90's. Has made great strides with his command this year. Stock is volatile and could go anywhere from top 10 early supplemental round. Command is iffy enough that I might stay away unless he falls all the way to #49.

11. John Stilson, Texas A&M- had a great junior season but is reportedly out now with a torn labrum which should put him off the board entirely.

12. Robert Stephenson, HS- Local kid from Martinez, CA. 6'2" with long arms and legs and a sturdy, yet athletic frame. Has dialed his fastball up to the mid-90's topping out at 97. A good student who is committed to Washington and may want to go to school. Lots of buzz about the Giants being in on him with some mocks having him a bit higher. If he's there at #29 and if they think they can get him signed, he might be the BPA!

13. Dillon Howard, HS- Good body with a low-mid 90's FB that he pounds with heavy sink. Command has been an issue at times and I've read that he has hefty bonus demands. I've thought he might be #1 on the Giants board of likely available pitchers, but not so sure now.

Supplemental Round:

14. Tyler Beede, HS- 6'4", 200 lbs with FB that goes 88-95 MPH with a good changeup and firm curveball. Advanced command and feel for pitching. The Giants definitely scout the northeast, so I'm sure they know about him.

15. Joe Ross, HS- Brother of Tyson Ross who pitched for Cal and is now in the A's organization. Similar build as Stephenson with maybe not quite as much fastball. Has had elbow questions. Another pitcher who has been linked to the Giants in several mock drafts, which of course don't mean anything. I'd be OK with him at #49, not so much at #29.

16. Jorge Lopez, HS(Puerto Rico)- Projectable 6'4", 180 lb frame. FB 89-93. Above average curveball. Main attraction is his projectability. Optioned to Fresno posted a video and length scouting report and sold me. I'd be OK with him at #29 if Stephenson isn't there and he might be #1 on my board for #49.

17. Kyle Winkler, TCU- 8-2, 1.40, 90 IP, 13 BB, 98 K's. Amid all the hoopla around Matt Purke, Winkler quietly kept pounding the strike zone with a heavy 91-95 MPH fastball and power slider. His changeup is improved making him a true 3 pitch pitcher. Very competitive. Lack of height(5'11") seems to be his only negative. I've always liked his pitching lines in boxscores and would be happy if he was the Giants supplemental round pick.

18. Michael Fulmer, HS- Don't know much about him. From Oklahoma and has been overshadowed by Bundy and Bradley.

19. Dillon Maples, HS- Don't know much about him either. I get the feeling he's a later supplemental round talent.

20. Kyle Crick, HS- A latecomer to pitching. He was a first baseman but discovered he could hit 94 on radar guns and switched to pitching. Still quite raw but has worked on several secondary pitches. Nice size at 6'3", 225 lbs.

21. Tony Zych, Louisville- 0-2, 3.00, 30 IP, 14 BB, 30 K's, 13 Saves. College closer. FB goes 94-99 MPH. Let the Cape Cod League with 12 Saves and hit 97 in their all-star game. The Giants are known to scout the Cape heavily. Hmm.....

22. Anthony Meo, Coastal Carolina- 9-3, 2.21, 102 IP, 29 BB, 108 K's. Great velocity(93-96) with mixed results on the field. Some scouts see him as a future reliever. Threw a no-hitter in the Big South Tournament.

23. Hudson Boyd, HS- Big kid at 6'3", 235 lbs with a FB that goes 90-96. Has drawn comparisons to Jonathan Broxton and Bartolo Colon in terms of size and stuff.

Second Round:

24. Madison Boer, Oregon- 3-6, 2.27, 99 IP, 35 BB, 74 K's. Big guy at 6'4", 215 lbs. Big fastball 90-93 as a starter, 96 as a reliever. Has added a splitter that he throws at 2 different speeds.

25. Erik Johnson, Cal- 6-3, 2.08, 90.2 IP, 41 BB, 91 K's. Another big guy at 6'2", 240 lbs. FB 90-95. Good hard slider which he can throw for strikes or as a chase pitch out of the zone. Walks obviously may be an issue.

26. Andrew Gagnon, Long Beach State- 4-10, 2.81, 99.1 IP, 38 BB, 84 K's. Typical Long Beach State pounder who can work both sides of the plate. Projects more as a workhorse type.

27. Evan Marshall, Kansas St.- 5-5, 1.71, 58 IP, 15 BB, 50 K's. College reliever who throws much harder as a reliever than a starter. Could reach the majors quickly as a reliever.

28. Burch Smith, Oklahoma- 6'3", 195 lbs. 10-3, 3.62, 87 IP, 31 BB, 90 K's. Reaches 95 MPH with ease. Secondary stuff and command need work.

29. Bryan Brickhouse, HS- Same HS as Kyle Drabek and Jameson Taillon. Not as developed as Drabek and not as big or powerful as Taillon. May end up going to college at North Carolina.

30. Michael Kelly, HS- Haven't heard much about him. At 6'5", 210 lbs sounds like a typical HS projectable arm from BA's description.

31. Joe Musgrove, HS- Projectable big kid, 6'5", 225 lbs. FB 90-94 with heavy sink. Has played both offensive and defensive line in football and is a competitor. Projects to be a big workhorse starter.

Third/Fourth Rounds:

32. Noe Ramirez, CS Fullerton- 8-3, 1.74, 82.2 IP, 18 BB, 91 K's. Low 90's FB with fantastic pitchability.

33. Kyle McMillen, Kent State- 0-2, 2.03, 26.2 IP, 11 BB, 28 K's, 17 Saves. No scouting report.

34. Chris Marlowe, Oklahoma State- 3-3, 4.43, 40.2 IP, 33 BB, 70 K's! No scouting report, but look at that K/9!

35. Jeff Soptic, JC- No scouting report.

36. Matt Andriese, UC Riverside- 4-5, 2.63, 95.2 IP, 25 BB, 74 K's. 6'3", 205 lbs. mid-high 90's fastball with inconisistent results on the field. The Giants are known to scout the Riverside area heavily.

37. Logan Verrett, Baylor- 6-5, 2.81, 93 IP, 28 BB, 91 K's. Typical big time college Friday starter which means he's pretty good.

38. Kevin Comer, HS- No scouting report.

39. Colton Murray, Kansas- 3-4, 3.79, 40.1 IP, 15 BB, 33 K's, 7 Saves. No scouting report.

40. Matt Summers, UC Irvine- 10-2, 1.74, 103.2 IP, 30 BB, 90 K's. no scouting report.

41. Scott McGough, Oregon- 3-6, 3.59, 57.2 IP, 25 BB, 62 K's, 5 Saves. No scouting report. I think our reader from Hawaii has seen him pitch.

42. Kyle Smith, HS- No scouting report.

43. Navery Mooor, Vanderbilt- 4-2, 1.21, 29.2 IP, 12 BB, 25 K's, 11 Saves. Obviously a college closer. 6'2", 205 lbs. No scouting report.

44. Jeff Ames, JC- No scouting report.

45. Cory Mazzoni, NC State- 5-6, 3.38, 106.2 IP, 28 BB, 125 K's. No scouting report, but love the ratios.

46. JR Graham, Santa Clara- 3-5, 3.34, 62 IP, 9 BB, 45 K's, 3 Saves. No scouting report.

47. Lenny Linsky, Hawaii- 1-1, 1.30, 34.2 IP, 9 BB, 34 K's, 14 Saves. Hawaii's closer. Stock seems to be rising.

48. Nick Burdi, HS- No scouting report.

49. Mason Hope, HS- No scouting report.

50. Jake Reed, HS- No scouting report.

51. Brooks Pinckard, Baylor- 5-2, 3.81, 52 IP, 30 BB, 41 K's. No scouting report. More of a reliever than starter at Baylor.

52. John Curtiss, HS- No scouting report.

53. Adrian Houser, HS- No scouting report.

54. Hawtin Buchanan, HS- Huge kid at 6'8", 225 lbs. Man, I really really like what I see in the scouting videos. All I can say is if he is a fourth round talent in this draft then this is one heckuva draft! I would be ecstatic if the Giants took him as high as round 2. Think of a much bigger version of Matt Cain. Maybe the height affects his command?

55. Cole Wiper, HS- No scouting report.

56. Clay Homes, HS- No scouting report.

57. Matt Price, South Carolina- 5-3, 2.47, 43.2 IP, 14 BB, 58 K's, 15 Saves. No scouting report but SC is the defending College Champ so they must be doing something right. Draft eligible freshman?

58. Carson Smith, Texas State- 9-3, 1.98, 104.1 IP, 46 BB, 124 K's. 6'5", 215 lbs. No scouting report. Love the size and numbers.

Fifth/Sixth Rounds:

59. Carter Capps, Mount Olive(N.C.)- No scouting report, but scouts must have seen something to list him from a place like that.

60. Jack Armstrong, Jr, Vanderbilt- 0-1, 2.81, 16 IP, 17 BB, 15 K's. Big RHP who can pound the zone. MLB pedigree. Dad was a MLB pitcher for Cincinnati, I believe. Has spent most of this year rehabbing with limited innings, but has a high ceiling. John Klima likes him a lot.

61. Kyle McMyne, Villanova- 4-8, 4.75, 77.2 IP, 49 BB, 94 K's. Big kid with mid 90's velocity. Inconsistent results on the field.

62. Austin Wood, USC- 5-7, 5.61, 77 IP, 34 BB's, 50 K's. 6'4", 220 lbs. Throws hard but had terrible results on the field. Do scouts see something they can fix?

63. Cole Green, Texas- 7-3, 3.20, 90 IP, 18 BB, 90 K's. Senior. Saturday starter. Probably more of a #3 or #4 starter which ain't bad coming from the rounds 5/6.

64. Tyler Pill, CS Fullerton- 6-1, 2.08, 90.2 IP, 19 BB, 99 K's. Brett's baby bro. Two way player who probably projects better as a pitcher.

65. Mark Pope, Georgia Tech- 11-4, 1.77, 112 IP, 23 BB, 88 K's. 6'2", 205 lbs. Less hyped than Jed Bradley but very effective pitcher.

66. Michael Cederoth, HS- No scouting report.

67. Taylor Hill, Vanderbilt- 4-1, 3.00, 84 IP, 21 BB, 75 K's. 6-4", 225 lbs. No scouting report. Talent runs deep at a program like Vanderbilt.

68. Ian Gardeck, JC- No scouting report.

69. Sam Gaviglio, Oregon State- 11-2, 1.95, 106.1 IP, 25 BB, 102 K's. TJ graduate. Osich has been more hyped but Gaviglio has been OSU's best pitcher.

70. David Goforth, Mississippi- 4-8, 4.88, 83 IP, 27 BB, 63 K's. No scouting report.

71. Matt Stites, Missouri- 3-6, 3.72, 92 IP, 41 BB, 77 K's. No scouting report.

72. Dylan Davis, HS- I think Klima scouted him. I can't remember what he said.

73. Kyle Simon, Arizona- 10-3, 2.93, 119.2 IP, 11 BB, 80 K's. Big kid 6'5", 219 lbs. Liked his numbers this year, especially the low BB's.

74. Mike Wright, East Carolina- 6-3, 2.84, 92 IP, 26 BB, 70 K"s. No scouting report. 6'5" 195 lbs.

75. Ricky Jacquez, HS- No scouting report.

76. Blake Treinen, South Dakota State- 7-3, 3.00, 84 IP, 25 BB, 84 K's. 6'4", 220 lbs, Senior. No scouting report.

77. Taylor Scott, HS- No scouting report.

78. Nick Tropeono, Stony Brook- 12-1, 1.84, 93 IP, 24 BB, 119 K's. Joe Nathan's alma mater. FB up to 94 MPH. Nice size.

79. Devin Jones, Mississippi State- 2-5. 4.45, 54.2 IP, 23 BB, 48 K's. 6'3", 180 lbs. No scouting report.

80. Jesus Valdez, JC- No scouting report.

81. Ray Black, Pitt- 1-1, 6.30, 20 IP, 26 BB, 33 K's. 6'5" 225. Draft eligible soph. No scouting report.

82. Kenny Giles, JC- No scouting report.

83. Thomas Robson, HS(Canada)- Somebody over on Sickels' site liked him a lot.

84. Anthony DeSclafani, Florida- 5-3, 3.77, 43 IP, 5 BB, 37 K's, 3 Saves. No scouting report.

85. Cody Hebner, JC- No scouting report.

86. Aaron Nola, HS- No scouting report.

87. Brandon Woodruff, HS- No scouting report.

88. Ben Paullus, Memphis- 5-4, 2.98, 48.1 IP, 16 BB, 51 K's, 4 Saves. No scouting report.

89. Matt Ramsey, Tennessee-0-1, 0.96, 9.1 IP, 6 BB, 15 K's, 3 Saves. No scouting report. Played in the field more than he pitched.

90. Ryan Woolley, Alabama-Birmingham- No scouting report.

91. Dixon Anderson, Cal- 4-3, 4.04, 62.1 IP, 19 BB, 37 K's. 6'6", 225 lbs. No scouting report.

92. Colin O'Connell, CS Fullerton- 7-3, 2.42, 70.2 IP, 6 BB, 49 K's. 6'6", 200 lbs. No scouting report.

93. Rookie Davis, HS- gotta love the name if nothing else!

94. Gandy Stubblefield, HS- No scouting report.

95. Pat Connaughton, HS- No scouting report.

96. Ross Stripling, Texas A&M- 12-2, 2.41, 100.2 IP, 14 BB, 94 K's. 6'3", 190 lbs. No scouting report.

97. Chris Jenson, San Diego- 3-7, 3.95, 82 IP, 36 BB, 73 K's. 6'4" 190 lbs. No scouting report.

3 comments:

  1. Great coverage, DrB!

    Just in case you have never checked them out, but Perfect Games has pretty good coverage of the draft too, I think they are ex-BA people: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5786

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  2. good stuff DrB! 47. Lenny Linsky was an excellent closer for Hawaii for 2 seasons. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's range with good darting action, a nasty slider, and he throws three quarters. Coach Trapasso said he has the perfect closers mentally. He has a little facial hair similar to B Wilson on his chin! Coach Trapasso said in a recent radio interview that an American League scout told him that Linsky could pitch in their big league bullpen right now! His reaction was Linsky needs one year in the minor leagues. Linsky should be gone within 2 rounds.

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  3. Thanks for the info on both counts. Yeah, I'm seeing LInsky's name pop up a lot lately. His stock definitely seems to be rising.

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