Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Scouting the Draft: Ranking the LHP's

The Giants have not shown a particular preference for LHP's or RHP's although Madison Bumgarner is the only LHP they've taken in the first round in the Brian Sabean era. The common denominators seem to be velocity and fastball command as the major criteria the Giants look for in the early rounds. Here's a breakdown of how BA ranks the LHP's in this draft along with my own comments:

First Round:

1. Danny Hultzen, Virginia- Definite top 10 pick, probable top 5 D'Backs seem like the most likely destination.

2. Jed Bradley, Georgia Tech- Big kid with excellent velocity and great command. Has not allowed a HR this season. Perfect fit for the Giants, but won't be there at #29.

3. Daniel Norris, HS- The top HS LHP in the country. I'm not enamored with his mechanics from what I've seen in videos. Should go a lot higher than #29 anyway.

4. Tyler Anderson, Oregon- 8-3, 2.17, 107.2 IP, 35 BB, 114 K's. Polished college LHP with good stuff. He'll probably go higher than #29, but has an outside chance of being there. More of a pitchability guy than a stuff guy which is why I'm not sure the Giants would take him even if he drops to them.

5. Matt Purke, Texas Christian- Was the top ranked LHP in the pre-season. Stock has dropped considerably due to shoulder issues, loss of velocity and mediocre performances. Personally, I'd stay away even at #29

6. Henry Owens, HS- 6'7" tall. Has an advanced feel for pitching but not as much velocity as you might expect for a kid his size. A real possibility at #29. Whether the Giants would take him probably depends on whether they think the velocity spike to 94 is real and whether Tidrow sees something he can tweak to create a monster.

Supplemental Round:

7. Andrew Chafin, Kent State- 7-1, 1.90, 80.1 IP, 21 BB, 97 K's. Missed 2010 with TJ. Low- mid 90's velocity and a wipeout slider. Had some dominating starts this year. Has an outside chance of being taken late in the first round.

8. Josh Osich, Oregon State- 6-4, 3.57, 75.2 IP, 32 BB, 79 K's. Another TJ graduate. Big LHP with a mid-90's fastball and a nice changeup. Got progressively stronger as the season progressed. Reached a peak with a no-hitter against UCLA, but has faded a bit down the stretch. He would fit the mold of the typical Giants pitcher and the Giants have never shied away from drafting TJ survivors. The Giants are rumored to have scouted him heavily. Seems to be on the short list for #29.

9. Sean Gilmartin, Florida State- 11-1, 1.52, 106.1 IP, 18 BB, 116 K's. A pitchability lefty who has been compared to Mike Minor. Doesn't seem to fit what the Giants look for at the top of the draft. Has had an excellent junior year season with 4 double digit K games. I wonder what Buster has to say about him?

10. Chris Reed, Stanford- 6-2, 2.61, 48.1 IP, 14 BB, 48 K's, 8 Saves. Mostly used as a reliever at Stanford. Big lefty who has touched 96 MPH but has been inconsistent. Probably projects more for the back end of the supplemental round.

11. Adam Conley, Washington St.- 6-7, 3.50, 108, IP, 27 BB, 83 K's. Another big Pac 10 lefty. Mixed reviews. Probably more for back end of supplemental round.

Second Round:

12. Charlie Lowell, Wichita State- 10-5, 2.79, 103.1 IP, 40 BB, 124 K's. Big LHP with 90-95 FB. Don't know much more about him. Nice K/9 though.

Third/Fourth Rounds:

13. Dillon Peters, HS- Small lefty with a low 90's fastball and good pitchability. Limited upside. Committed to Texas.

14. Bryan Flynn, Wichita State- 6-4, 4.63, 83.2 IP, 39 BB, 77 K's. No scouting report.

15. Kylin Turnbull, JC- No info.

16. Grayson Garvin, Vanderbilt- 12-1, 2.35, 95.2 IP, 20 BB, 82 K's. Nice size and has pitched well for a major program. I like him as much as some of the supplemental round guys and he would be a steal in rounds 3 or 4.

17. Kevin Matthews, HS- No info.

18. Bryce Bandilla, Arizona- 5-3, 3.65, 44.1 IP, 32 BB, 47 K's. Big Kid. 6'4", 237 lbs. No scouting info.

19. Nick Maronde, Florida- 0-0, 1.72, 36.2 IP, 6 BB, 49 K's. Used mostly as a reliever. Don't know much about him. 6'3", 200 lbs.

20. Adam Morgan, Alabama- 5-6, 4.14, 91.1 IP, 23 BB, 72 K's. Seems like a standard big program college lefty.

21. Daniel Camarena, HS- No info.

Fifth/Sixth Rounds:

22. Cody Kukuk, HS- Tall lefty with nice arm action. Has an abrupt ending to his delivery. If that can be fixed, I could see him adding a couple of MPH to his current 90-92. Kind of a sleeper who could go higher if some team thinks it can improve his delivery.

23. Blake Snell, HS- No info.

24. Carlos Rodon, HS- No info.

25. Ryan Carpenter, Gonzaga- 8-2, 2.62, 96 IP, 33 BB, 107 K's. Big lefty with inconsistent velocity. I think he would be a steal in the 5'th round.

26. Amir Garrett, HS- Tall lefty who has played mostly basketball. Seems to have a ton of raw talent. John Sickels has him going to the Giants at #49 in the supplemental round in his latest mock draft.

27. Jake Cave, HS- No info.

28. Chris Lamb, Davidson- 1-7, 3.75, 81.2 IP, 19 BB, 85 K's. Smallish lefty with nice ratios. Went to HS in Berkeley. Seems to be a superior student, so might opt to stay in school for his senior year.

29. Will Lamb, Clemson- 1-1, 5.11, 24.2 IP, 11 BB, 29 K's. Two way player who hit .344 and stole 13 of 17 bases as a hitter. Tall lefty at 6'6". Just the type of guy the Giants might take as a pitcher in the 5'th or 6'th round.

30. Anthony Cingriani, Rice- 4-2, 1.76, 56.1 IP, 10 BB, 65 K's, 12 Saves. Senior, so should be an easy sign. 6'5", 205 lbs. Looks good for the 5'th or 6'th rounds.

31. Roberto Padilla, San Jose State- 9-6, 3.19, 98.2 IP, 46 BB, 81 K's. 6'3", 201 lbs. No scouting report.

32. Sam Stafford, Texas- 5-2, 1.70, 63.2 IP, 37 BB, 75 K's. Sunday starter for Texas, but talent runs deep in a program like Texas. Klima has scouted him and really likes him a lot. 6'4", 190 lbs.

33. Trent Howard, Central Michigan- 4-4, 2.78, 87.1 IP, 22 BB, 96 K's. Another guy who Klima likes a lot. Love the ratios.

5 comments:

  1. Hey Doc,

    Completely out of my depth to comment on your pre-draft scouting reports, but I wanted you to know that I do enjoy reading them.

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  2. Thank you. You are probably no more out of your depth to comment than I am to write them. Rather than predict exactly who the Giants are going to pick, I think the main value is to get familiar with some of the names and get a general idea of what type of players might be available at different draft slots. It really seems like this draft is so deep there will be interesting players available all the way down to rounds 6 or 7 or beyond.

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  3. Speaking of rounds 6 or 7...

    Where is Chuckie? Are they holding him back for short season? I know there is no rush on the kid, but he looked like he was ready for A- the way he played last year...

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  4. I was a little surprised we didn't see Chuckie Jones in Low A. I assume we'll see him in Salem-Keizer. He'll only be 18 yo so he wouldn't be falling behind if they had him repeat rookie ball, but I'll guess we see him in S-K.

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  5. DrB, Thanks for the pre draft scouting reports. I can see why the pundits are raving about the pitching depth in this years draft. Look at all of the lefthanders alone rated to go in the early rounds. That said I would be happy if they took either Owens or Osich since they both throw low to mid 90's fastballs.

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