Friday, February 4, 2011

Hot Stove Update: Do the Yankees Want Barry Zito?

This morning, Jonah Keri over on fangraphs.com caused a bit of a stir by proposing that the Yankees should trade for Barry Zito. The thought was precipitated by the announcement that Andy Pettitte was officially retiring. That leaves the Yankees a bit short on MLB quality SP's, particularly from the lefthanded side of the ship. This turn of events leaves the Yankees with a starting rotation of CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, AJ Burnett and bunch of no-names for the the last 2 spots, unless you think Joba Chamberlain is starter material. None of the current candidates are LHP's.

Why the panic over LHP's? Two things: 1. The ridiculously short porch in Yankee Stadium has always dictated that the Yanks be strong from the left side. 2. Their main AL East rivals, the Red Sox lean strongly to the left in their batting order including the two big name acquisitions, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. The Yanks had already been dealt a major blow when the guy everyone expected them to sign, Cliff Lee, went to Philadelphia instead. The Yanks can probably thank some of their hooligan fans who spit and threw beer at Mrs. Lee for that embarrassment. It probably didn't hurt the Yanks too much to try and wait out Pettitte because there really weren't any other LHP options on the FA market. On the other hand, quite a few decent RHP's got signed by other teams during the long wait. Now the Yanks are clearly in a bind despite brave talk that they can go with internal options if they have to, that rotation just isn't what you see on a playoff contender, let alone a team that is looking to win it all. The Yankees are reportedly drawing up a list of possible trade target including Scott Kazmir and Gio Gonzalez, which brings us to Barry Zito.

Zito's name has not been mentioned in any serious trade rumors. Jonah Keri's piece was basically a fan/writer with an idea. The basic line of reasoning isn't too far-fetched. Zito has one of the most maligned contracts in all of baseball and everybody assumes the Giants would jump at the chance to unload it. The Yankees seem to have unlimited financial resources. They can and have taken on bad contracts to upgrade positions. Then Keri hedged his bets by throwing out the notion of the Giants paying a half of Zito's remaining contract. Whoa there! Say what? I think that was the sound of Brian Sabean hanging up the phone!

I very much doubt that the Giants would trade Barry Zito and his entire contract right now, but I'm darn sure that they would not do any trade that required them to pay half his salary going forward. Here's why: Zito is being paid approximately $18 M per year. For the last two seasons, he's been a 2 WAR pitcher. Market price in MLB right now is approximately $5 M/WAR. In order for the Giants to replace Barry Zito in the rotation, they would have to pay somebody about $10 M unless they had a prospect ready to take over, which they don't. If they pay half of Zito's salary, $9 M and then turn around and pay a replacement $10 M, they end up with a similar pitcher and $1 M higher cost! The other problem with that scenario is there are no such pitchers even available anymore. If there were, the Yankees would be signing them as I write this! Yes, they Giants could trade prospects for the replacement, but those prospects have monetary value too, to say nothing of their talent value. Bottom line, the Giants are not going to be trading Barry Zito and picking up part of his salary!

That brings us to the question of whether the Giants would give Zito and his entire contract away to the Yanks just to get rid of it. Well, you still have the problem that they currently have no replacements within the organization and none on the FA market. Last time I checked, the Giants were acting like they're going to try to repeat as World Series winners. The Giants aren't going to compete with the Dodgers upgraded rotation or the Rockies rising stars by downgrading their pitching rotation! Now, you could argue that downgrading the rotation this year would be worth the possibility of upgrading it or perhaps make it easier to hang onto their young pitching stars in future years. That reasoning makes perfect sense to a stat nerd/armchair GM like us, but the Giants are geared up to try and win again this year. They aren't going to scuttle those plans for some theoretical future benefit. Bottom line: I find it extremely doubtful that the Giants would trade Zito to the Yankees even if the Yanks picked up his entire salary.

12 comments:

  1. Hey Doc,

    I have been obsessively troubleshooting scenarios on how the Giants could unload Zito and all or most of his contract. The Yankees would be the only team I can see taking him, and that would be a long shot. Zito is not useless. Afterall, most teams would love to have a fifth starter who pitched 199 1/3 innings with a 4.15 era. Just not for $18 million per year.

    My two ideas:

    1) What about a Zito for AJ Burnett? Burnett was horrible last season and struggled with his control, but he still throws hard and has good stuff. I wonder if a move to the NL West from the AL East would do wonders for Burnett like it did for Brad Penny?

    And Burnett has a better contract at $16 million for 3 years. Compare that to Zito's $18.5 million in 2011, $19 million in 2012, $20 million in 2012, and an $18 million team option with a $7 million buyout that can vest if he pitches enough innings in the previous 3 seasons.

    Could Rags help AJ Burnett get his command back?

    2) I've heard that the Giants are going to look at Runzler as a starter and he might start the season in Fresno. If Zito gets off to a hot start and Runzler dominates as a starter in Fresno, maybe the Giants could put Zito on the waiver wire and see if a team will take him and his salary? Then bring up Runzler.

    pb209

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  2. This makes a lot of sense. You've changed my mind.

    I was thinking that it would be OK to trade if we gave up around $7M per year, but you're right, replacing him right now would cost a whole heck of a lot more, though technically, we aren't looking to replace his full production, we probably can make do with a 1 WAR pitcher in the #5 spot, particularly if Sandoval and Ross are ready to return to prior production levels.

    Still, even that bad a pitcher probably is not available right now. Though I saw it tweeted that Oliver Perez is available, he could be a nice reclaimation project, though obviously not even 1 WAR right now.

    Looking at the Yankees system, I ran across someone I would be willing to take in exchange for Zito plus we give up some money to get the prospect: Hector Noesi (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=noesi-001hec)

    This following link has a good description of him and another prospect who also looks good in trade, Ivan Nova, but whose peripherals are not as awesome but he's a groundball machine: http://www.yankeeist.com/2011/02/what-to-expect-from-hector-noesi-and.html

    Noesi has really good command and control and is still young. He did well in AA last season, and probably could be ready for promotion to the majors by mid-season. We could go with Suppan as the #5 starter, or maybe even Runzler pitching 4-5 innings at at time, until Noesi is ready.

    Nova probably would be ready to start the season as a starter, so perhaps he'll be a better choice if you want to avoid using Suppan for anything. But Suppan would be no worse than what we had in the #5 position to start in 2009 or 2010, so it might be worth it to get Noesi and go the half year plan.

    Just a thought, but yeah, you hit the nail on the head, the Giants want to maximize their chances of repeating, and keeping Zito would do that.

    And really, he would be just as tradable, I think, after the 2011 season as this season, because he would only have two more seasons to go on his contract by that point, and there are just as bad 2-year contracts available in return, like Figgins or the Cubs Fukudome this off-season, I'm sure.

    I understand hating the money he's getting, but really, he makes our rotation really rock solid top to bottom when you look beyond the money and just at his performance the past two seasons, which is very similar to his work in his later A's days.

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  3. Hey team! Thanks for the feedback. Several good ideas. If Sabean is more of a gambler than I think he is, or if the Giants are more strapped for money than I think they are, they might do something like that.

    Suppan basically just throws it up there and depends on the fluctuations of BABIP to win a few games. He has a modest GB tendency so with a good defense behind him and the west coast ballparks working for him, he might be able to keep his ERA down in the 4's.

    It's not our money, so the only rational reason for us fans to hate Zito's contract is the notion that it is keeping the Giants from getting the players they need to win the WS. Well, they've already won the WS with his contract. There's no evidence that his contract is getting in the way right now. It might in the future, but we don't really know that it will even then because we don't know how high the Giants might ultimately be willing to go in payroll.

    If the Giants have ideas about repeating as champs, the safest route is to keep Zito for now.

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  4. Dr. B - I agree that keeping Zito does make the Giants a better team this year, and since they're trying to defend their WS title, they'll most likely keep him.

    But you can't dismiss the financial aspects and just say, "look, they increased payroll this year - Zito isn't holding them back."

    In 2011, the starting 5 (Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez, Bumgarner) are going to make a combined $45 million (14, 7.3, 18.5, 4.8 & 0.4 respectively).

    In 2011, Cain, Zito & Bum are going to make $34.7 (15.3, 19.0, 0.4) with Lincecum and Sanchez due for raises in their third arbitration eligible year. That conservatively puts next year's payroll for our 5 starting pitchers at over $58 million (18 for Lincecum & 6 million for Sanchez).

    In 2013, Zito makes $20 million. Sanchez and Cain are free agents, Bumgarner is in his first arbitration year and Lincecum is in his fourth. To keep the staff intact, the starting pitcher payroll would be well over $60 million -- and that's factoring in a long-term deal for Cain that has a lower first year number.

    Zito's contract (hopefully) ends after 2013, with a $7 million buyout in 2014.

    Our current payroll has increased dramatically to $120 million. Assuming it rises again by 10% annually (which I think is unlikely and extremely aggressive), I just don't think there's any way a team can remain competitive if that percentage of the payroll is chewed up by 5 guys.

    Even if Brandon Belt and Thomas Neal come up and produce, becoming above-average lineup fixtures in the coming years, Posey and Sandoval will be getting expensive because they'll be hitting arbitration. And we'll have to fill out the other 4 position slots. I don't think the rest of our minor leaguers (even though I love them and hope for the best for and of them) are going to be ready to step up and fill in those slots with minimum-wage, above-average production. I hope I'm wrong, but expecting that is kind of absurd.

    I'm not really worried about the bullpen because the Giants always have young, cheep arms to plug in and Sabean is adept at finding solid, cheep free agent arms to augment that. I do worry about closer, though. Wilson is going to get very expensive and is a free agent in 2013. Given the Benitez debacle, I'm terrified of what happens if we don't keep him -- but, again, that will cost quite a bit of money -- like, another $10 million per year.

    The simple act of getting rid of Zito's contract alleviates all kinds of financial pressures in 2012 and 2013 when our really good starting pitchers are at risk for leaving via free agency or being traded because they're getting really expensive.

    And I like the two scenarios listed above -- getting Burnett would give us someone who has a decent chance (not a great one, mind you) to match Zito's production over the next 3 years at a fraction of the cost. Better home stadium, National League, new start... I could see him settling in and doing well. He'd just need to stay healthy, which the Giants have been very good a doing with regard to their starting pitching.

    I'd love to bury my head in the sand and say, "hey - it's not my money!" and keep Zito and keep making runs with our incredible pitching staff. But I don't think the economics will allow for that as currently constituted. I want Cain and Lincecum in a Giants uniform for a long, long time. And I don't know if that can happen with Zito's $20 million (or so) hanging over our heads for the next 3 years.

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  5. Addendum, I'd even entertain a Zito and Sanchez for Hughes trade if the Yankees take on all the money... although I'd probably ask the Yanks to throw in another prospect as well.

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  6. Dave,

    I'm not denying any of that, but you don't blow up this year's opportunity for something that may happen in the future. I don't agree that Burnett gives them just as much chance to win as Zito. Zito has made every single start of his Giants career. Burnett is both a huge injury risk and a head case. Zito + Sanchez for Hughes? No way, no how is that a good idea!

    It is likely that the Giants will end up losing 1 or 2 of their young pitchers at some point in the future. with or without Zito. It will be a very delicate decision, and one I'm not sure Brian Sabean is up to even though I'm basically a Sabean supporter. He will need to anticipate which pitcher is going to be impossible to keep away from FA, and try to trade him for 2-3 MLB ready, high ceiling prospects including at least one pitcher.

    Anyway, I highly doubt the Yanks are looking at Zito anyway. It appears to me that the Yanks are slowly, or not so slowly, weaning themselves away from the "just throw money at it" philosophy of the George Steinbrenner era. Hank seems to be cut from a different cloth.

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  7. Getting rid of Zito is an investment for the future of the Giants. I think that Zito is the top 5th starter in baseball because he provides almost 200 innings and a decent 4ish ERA that would give most teams a chance to win every time he pitches. However, I would trade him and his salary in an instant to NY for 4 reasons.

    1) Zito and his high innings is good for the regular season, but will do no good in the playoffs where he will most likely be left off the roster again.
    2) The Giants offense has been having trouble scoring 5 runs a game and that is what would be needed to win most of the games that Zito is starting in the regular season.
    3) I don't care how good of a number 5 he is, he is not worth the ace money he is going to "earn" over the next few years.
    4) By getting out from under this massive deal they can relocate that money to the real aces of the staff.

    In conclusion, losing Zito may make it more difficult to reach the playoffs, but locking up Timmy and Cainer will give them a a better chance to win in the playoffs for years to come. I would prefer a roster filler 5th starter and keep Timmy and Cain than hope Zito can help the Giants get to the playoffs over the next 3 years.

    Lastly, Burnett would still hinder chances to re-sign the top 2 starters and I would prefer to trade most of Zitos salary then get under another albatross that won't pitch in the playoffs anyway.

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  8. I agree with Dave and Clint. Zito's contract in the context of Tim and Matt's impending pay raises creates quite a money crunch in 2012 and 2013.

    If you do assume that Zito should be traded/waived at some point in the next year, the Yankees' current predicament seems to be an ideal opportunity. I agree that the Giants couldn't pay half of Zito's salary this year, but I'd go as high as $6m this year. (Question: in these scenarios, does the trading team agree to pay a percentage of all future years the contract runs, or just that year?)

    Getting a low-level high-upside prospect back would be the best we could hope for, as I see it. Yes, we suffer with Suppan or whomever in the #5 role this year (and maybe next?). But Belt should improve the offense, and a full year's worth of Bumgarner should improve the starting pitching. Trading Zeets would be a bit of a calculated risk, but the need to do so will only grow as we approach 2012 and 2013.

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  9. Thanks for the feedback guys. Even though the Giants don't need a #5 starter for the playoffs, you have to get there first. Any other option I've seen put out there so far diminishes their chances of making the playoffs. I think the Giants are the best team in the NL West, but the Dodgers and Rockies aren't going to roll over a die for them. There are other ways to deal with the future than risk sacrificing their chances this year.

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  10. In light of Micheal Young's susposed availability what would you think of trading Barry Zito and Freddie Sanchez to the Rangers for Micheal Young and Scott Feldman?

    The dollars would be pretty close. The Giants would be down grading at 5th starter but upgrading at 2B. The Rangers would be upgrading their rotation, freeing up DH PAs for Napoli and Murphy, and could use Freddy Sanchez as the utility infielder since he has experience at both 3B and SS as well as 2B.

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  11. I doubt the Rangers would do that trade, but I'm also not sure Michael Young is an upgrade at 2B if you count defense. He was such a statue at 3B! Freddy's D was so key on the postseason, especially in the WS.

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  12. Totally agree regarding Young's defense as showcased in the Series. Vlad got all the headlines, but Young really had poor reactions at 3B. (He won a GG at short in 2008??? How can that be?) Love Freddy, and yes, his D was key in the playoffs. But it would be nice to have Young's bat. Ahhh, I'm guessing the Giants are on Young's do not trade list anyway. Anyway, without taking on a huge portion of Zito's salary, I can't see any team trading for Zito unless they are under extreme duress and have a lot of money to throw around.

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