Sunday, November 7, 2010

State of the Giants: What Do We Do Now?

There is a famous movie scene near the end of The Candidate where the candidate, played by Robert Redford, turns to his campaign advisor after being elected Senator from California and asks, "What Do We Do Now? That seems like a useful metaphor for what a lot of Giants fans are thinking right about now. So much of our identity as fans has been tied up in the "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" history of the Giants, a lot of us don't quite know what to do with this newfound exhilaration of finally winning the World Series. Yes, the Giants won the World Series! As great as being able to say that is, it still feels just a bit strange and unfamiliar.

As the euphoria slowly dies down and the offseason schedule forces decisions to be made about the team's roster for next year, the realization hits that we are less than 4 months away from starting the grind all over again. How will the new team look? How will the season feel? Will there be the same urgency to try and repeat as champions as there was to win it for the first time in San Francisco Giants history? You start to realize that while the Giants win in 2010 will stand in the record books forever, the team itself, as well as winning, is temporary, with the quest to win again never ending. One of my favorite quotes of all time comes courtesy of Duane Thomas, a former All Pro running back for the Dallas Cowboys and notorious 49'ers nemesis. After the Cowpokes had won a Superbowl game, he said, "If it's the ultimate game, why do they play it again next year?" Needless to say, that didn't exactly endear him to his coach, the team or the NFL. They ran his butt out of the league in no time.

So, what do we do now?

Winning the World Series once is crazy hard, let alone winning it back-to-back. As we all know, this was the Giants first win since the team move to San Francisco 52 years ago, but prior to that the Giants franchise won 5 times as the New York Giants, so the franchise has won it 6 times total. By way of comparison, there are just 6 franchises who have won as many IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE SPORT! Less than half of all current major league teams have even played in as many as 6 World Series contests IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE SPORT! In the 107 year history of the World Series, only 8 non-Yankee teams have ever repeated as champions, and it's only happened 3 times since 1930, the '92-'93 Blue Jays, '75-'76 Reds and the '72-'74 Oakland A's.

Remember the Angels team that won over the Giants in 2002? That team spent crazy amounts of money trying to duplicate that accomplishment over the next 8 seasons. THEY SIGNED VLAD for crying out loud! They haven't won it, or even really come close since. It just takes an incredible level of talent to win a World Series, but just having the talent is usually not enough. You also have to have an incredible passion, perseverance, and yes, a lot of luck to survive a marathon 162 game schedule and then 3 grueling series' against other teams with similar levels of talent who want it just as bad as you do. To sustain that level of intensity for a second season in a row without the Yankees' overwhelming resources is, as the data suggests, virtually impossible. The Giants might field a team that is just as good as this year's team, or even better, and still not win it again. They could make the playoffs for the next 10 years in a row and not win it again in that time.

So, what do we do now?

One thing the World Series highlighted, and didn't change, is the Giants core of young home-grown players. Much has been made of the Giants as a group of castoffs and misfits, but that narrative only goes so far. Yes, there were a lot of "dumpster dives" on the team who made enormous contributions, but at it's core, the team has what might be the best homegrown talent ikn baseball. That it is concentrated in pitching may have been overlooked by many observers, but it's no less a fact and no less important. In fact, the opposite may be true, that it's much more important to have dominant young pitching than a core of great positions players or even a mix, as the Dodgers are finding out.

The Giants position in the future pecking order of baseball goes beyond the young core of players currently at the MLB level. The Giants have a strong and involved ownership group, buffering them against catastrophe like has befallen the Dodgers one-man ownership. They have a great ballpark, maybe the best in baseball, that is a destination attraction for casual fans or even non-fans. I know quite a few people who aren't even baseball fans, let alone Giants fans, who go to games in SF just to have the experience of that stadium! Better yet, the Giants are one of the few teams in baseball who own their own park. It will be paid off soon, leaving ownership with a windfall that will keep the team financially competitive with all but possibly the Yankees for years and even decades to come.

The Giants still have a strong farm system despite the recent remarkable run of graduations to the MLB club. The system if fed by a top notch scouting and player development department which promises to keep the flow of talent coming for years to come

Taken as a totality, the San Francisco Giants are as well positioned for the future as any team in baseball. That will likely not translate into a World Series Championship every year. In fact, there's no guarantees it will ever happen again, but it does make it likely that they will contend every year for the forseeable future. As we all know, you can't win a World Series without making the playoffs first so another World Series banner or two is a lot more than just a pipe dream. What the Giants need to do is stay on course with building the team from within. It has to be a never-ending process, but as long as it continues, the castoffs and misfits will only complete the picture, not be the whole picture or even the main subject of the picture.

As the offseason moves along, I will comment regularly bout moves that affect the roster as well as take an in-depth look at the farm system. I will post DrB's 2011 Giants Top 50 Prospects starting after the Winter Meetings. I may not be posting every day as I have done in the past, but check back regularly for new postings. The hiatus after the World Series should be the longest I go without new material moving forward.

Again, thanks to everybody who visits this blog, especially those who comment. It has been, and continues to be, one of the more rewarding endeavors of my life to start this blog and watch a community start to grow up around it.

Go Giants!! World Series winners 2010!

9 comments:

  1. Glad your hiatus didn't last too long, good Doctor.

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  2. Took me time to read all the comments, but I really enjoyed the article.replica watches|

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  3. hey doc,

    ive been reading alot about shawon dunston jr...seems like the kid has the makings of a solid major league cf...speed, can hit to all fields, good defense

    lots of scouts are picking him at going in the first round next season, after a year of college

    any buzz that the giants are interested?

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  4. Oh yeah, Dunston is still in HS. Will be draft eligible out of HS in 2011. Go to baseballbeginnings.com and type his last name into the search function. Tools galore, B- L, T-R outfielder. Just look at the kid! Yes, definite first round potential. The assumption is that if he's there at #29, the Giants will be interested. Klima thinks he gets a bit pull happy with limited power, but sure looks like he has room to fill out that body

    Another interesting pedigree in the 2011 draft, Wayne Gretzky's kid is a tall, lanky first base prospect with a whole lot of room to fill out his frame and good power potential. He may not have first round talent though and may be headed to college.

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  5. I totally agree DrB, the Scouting and Development has taken a giant leap forward in recent years.

    We have not had a position player like Brandon Belt that I can recall who we drafted in later rounds (past first round) who has done so well rising up. The closest would be Frandsen, who I still think could have been OK in the majors, but, like many players, his head might keep him from showing his talents in the majors. I guess another would be Ishikawa, but based on the bonus he got, he was first round talent that we astutely picked up in a much later round.

    And I think that they made excellent picks once again with Brown, Parker, Jones, and all the pitchers in 2010.

    That's something that has gone unnoticed by most analysts, that Sabean has done a number of things that are leading edge like that (Ishikawa's bonus was the record by far when that happened, beyond the early rounds; purposefully skipping first round picks).

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  6. Well, if they can get Pablo to turn into the Panda again, okay. They might put together a season team to get them to the playoffs. I'm not sure that Huff, Torres, Uribe and Ross can come close to 2010..
    They really just might get to the playoffs with a close-to-the-2010-pitching-staff, where they would be just as deadly as before but, with one years experience.
    I was disappointed in the stats from Richomond but San Jose looked pretty decent with maybe a diamond in the rough after Belt.
    I can see the Giants pitching payroll is going to get a whooping in the next few years.

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  7. The real test of Sabes' acumen will come when these pitchers all hit their FA years about the same time. That's when it might be prudent to trade 1 or 2 of them for multiple MLB ready prospects. If he does it right, he can leverage it into even more talent while keeping the payroll under control. If he does it wrong......we don't want to think about that!

    Looming free agency for the young pitchers is one reason why I think they need to concentrate on pitching in the next draft, all things being equal.

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  8. Well, if there is one thing Giants fan know (and now the secret is out to the rest of the baseball world) is that the one thing this organization does really well is draft, develop, and reevaluate pitchers. Since success begats imitators, I would not be surprised to see a lot of teams look towards drafting more pitching now. That means using early draft picks for high upside arms. It could also get a bit tougher to find hidden pitching gems later in the draft. But with more teams looking for arms, that might give the Giants some opportunities to draft some good hitters and thus have a balanced draft.

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  9. That's a good point. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see an all out "arms race" in baseball to the point where pitching becomes overvalued. I've been interested to see Cliff Lee listed as the consensus top FA this offseason when it seems to me that designation ought to go to Carl Crawford.

    Yeah, if teams drafting ahead of the Giants overdraft on pitchers, it may well allow better hitting prospects to drop to them. John Barr seems to have a preference for drafting hitters, so I'm confident he would take full advantage of that.

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