Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Hot Stove Update: Uggla to the Braves; Davis to the Jays

Yesterday, the Florida Marlins continued their roster adjustment by trading Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves. At first glance this trade appears to be very one-sided, and from at least one perspective it is. Uggla is a very good player. He has hit 30 or more HR's 4 seasons in a row, something only 3 other players have done in that time. His hitting, er slugging, more than make up for his subpar defense at 2B. He is a reliable 5 WAR player, and those don't just grow on trees. Uggla is worth much more as a player than the two players who the Marlins acquired, combined.

There is another way of looking at this though. The Marlins were going to lose Dan Uggla anyway. He turned down multiple very reasonable offers to the point where it became obvious that he just didn't want to sign a long term contract at all with them. I wonder if that may have had anything to do with conversations he had with his good friend Cody Ross about what it's like to play for a championship contender? At any rate, the Marlins were being forced into going to arbitration with Uggla just to keep him for 1 more season and they were clearly not willing to do that. With the deadline for offering arbitration looming, they had to move fast with every other team in baseball knowing they had to trade Uggla. Under those circumstances, the Marlins made out pretty well. They got a replacement second baseman who played in the 2010 All-Star game and who is cost controlled for awhile. They also got a LOOGY reliever to add to the stable of RH relievers they have stockpiled via other trades.

As for the Braves, they added a middle of the order RH bat to a lineup that leaned fairly heavily to the left, something the Giants were able exploit in the playoffs. What will be interesting is whether Uggla signs a long term contract with Atlanta or if he is determined to test free agency in 2012.

Trader Billy struck again, trading former Giant Rajai Davis to the Toronto Blue Jays for a couple of pitching prospects who project as relief pitchers. As you might remember, Davis went on a tear with Oakland after Billy Beane picked him up on waivers from the Giants in 2009. Davis stole a lot of bases again in 2010, but his hitting regressed a lot and he was the odd man out after the A's traded for David DeJesus. Some Giants fans were understandably upset with Brian Sabean for letting Davis go, but from today's perspective, if it came down to Davis or Andres Torres, the Giants kept the right guy. It's a little tough to see how Rajai Davis fits in with the Toronto Blue Jays other than giving them a 4'th OF option in case Fred Lewis leaves. On the other hand, Lewis and Davis might make a nice #4, #5 OF combo for the Jays.

6 comments:

  1. A correction. That replacement second baseman is not cost controlled for awhile unless by awhile you mean the the 2011 season only. He will be a free agent after this year just like Uggla.

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  2. OK, my bad. I guess the advantage is he won't cost as much this year and might be willing to sign a less expensive long term contract.

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  3. By the way, thanks for being a SFGiants blogger willing to look for and see the positive side of things and not just the negative side of things.

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  4. GRM,

    Thank you. I try to call it like I see it, postive or negative. Right now, there's a lot of positive, and isn't it great?

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  5. I still think that the Marlins got ripped off. They should have known by mid-2010 that he was not going to sign, at least if I were management, that would have been broached long ago to see where Uggla and agent stood. Unless, that is, they changed their stance, then they were left flat-footed and forced to take less.

    Still, 4 years vs. 5 years, you would think such a detail would have figured out before now, by at least mid-season.

    And they would have gotten a lot more for him then, and they were pretty clearly out of it by mid-season, wasn't looking good for them then. They should have been watching out for that scenario, that was not that difficult to foresee.

    Also, Infante's value is inflated by his great BABIP in 2010 - .355 vs. career .313 (which includes that) - and he hasn't really shown the speed to support such a high BABIP. One good thing is that his K% is very low, showing that he is a good enough hitter, but his poor walk rate counters that, resulting in probably average OBP, while he shows little power.

    Also, he exhibits reverse platoon hitting, doing better against RHP than LHP, particularly in 2010. He will have to continue that in 2011 for him to show offensively value. And while he is above average defensively, he is not that great.

    For such a small return, unless they think Dunn is going to be a future closer, I would have waited longer, heck, they might be able to pick up a better 2B off non-tender process.

    Don't know how Braves do it, always seem to fleece somebody, I still don't know how they got McGriff from SD without giving away a top prospect.

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  6. OGC,

    I agree that timing is everything in these situations. It's better to pull the trigger too soon than too late. San Diego is playing the same game with AGone and are getting very close to the point where they might as well keep him until he hits FA and take the draft picks.

    At some point the Giants may have to make a decision like this with 1 or 2 of their young players. Ideally, you can leverage a trade into 1-2 MLB ready prospects plus another 2-3 high ceiling prospects lower in the minors.

    Part of the problem for the Marlins may be that Uggla is still underrated around the league because of his relatively low BA's and his subpar defense.

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