Sunday, November 14, 2010

Burning Question #2: Who's Plays Shortstop?

Maybe this should have been Burning Question #1, because of all the items on Brian Sabean's to do list this offseason, filling the shortstop position may be both the most important and most difficult. If the Spring Training started tomorrow, the Giants would go to camp with the shortstop depth chart of 1. Mike Fontenot. 2. Emmanuel Burriss 3. Ryan Rohlinger, or something like that. You can put the names in a hat and draw them at random. That's a significant downgrade for a team on which shortstop was the weakest position by the end of last season, not exactly the depth chart of a defending World Series championship team.

To make matters worse, the free agent market isn't exactly overflowing with shortstop talent. Juan Uribe, who isn't anybody's vision of an ideal shortstop is easily the cream of the crop, well, at least if you eliminate Derek Jeter from consideration. Uribe doesn't look like a shortstop, huge upper body with spindly legs, especially from the knees down. He also doesn't hit for a high average and he doesn't draw a lot of walks. What Uribe does is hit home runs, enough to make him a valuable #6 or #7 hitter. That's a lot more than you can say for most shortstops. On defense, a cannon for an arm makes up for limited range. At low priced 1 year contracts like he has had with the Giants the last two years, Uribe is a godsend to a roster. On a multiyear contract for $ several million, he doesn't look so good.

The problem for the Giants is that Uribe is no longer flying under anybody's radar. The St. Louis Cardinals have essentially announced that they are looking for an offensive upgrade at shortstop, and wouldn't Uribe fill that bill! Many baseball prognosticators have already penciled him into Cincinnati's roster, and there could be a few others hoping to catch a little of the Giants magic dust. So it's quite possible, even likely that rather than being the bargain he has been for the Giants the last 2 years, Juan Uribe will be signed to one of the most overpriced contracts of this offseason. So, what are the Giants fallback options?

Here's where Brian Sabean may have the biggest test of his entire tenure as GM of the Giants, finding a shortstop for next season if another team gets blinded by the shiny World Series trophy they saw Uribe holding. Here are some possible options:

In House:

There is the aforementioned Burriss and Rohlinger plus Mike Fontenot, assuming Fontenot is tendered a contract. Fontenot is primarily a second baseman and his fielding deficiencies at shortstop would be exposed in an every day role, just like they were exposed at 3B in the post season. Neither Burriss nor Rohlinger has shown they can hit MLB pitching at even the Mendoza line, although Burriss brings intriguing speed to the table.

Brandon Crawford is the guy who the Giants appear to hope is the shortstop of the future. Unforunately, he was injured for a big chunk of 2010 leaving him at least a half season of minor league AB's short of being ready to play in the majors.

Ehire Adrianza has a nice future as a fielder, but struggled at the plate in A ball. He's clearly not ready!

Free Agents:

Once you get past Juan Uribe, the pickings are slim indeed. Edgar Renteria could be brought back at a lower salary, say $1-2 million, but nobody thinks he is anything more than a part time player at this point. It may be worth the risk hoping he makes it to mid-season and Crawford is ready by then, but clearly not plan A.

Orlando Cabrera has made a career lately out of being a one season option. He might be the best of the rest, but really?

JJ Hardy might be non-tendered by the Twins, and thus might be available in trade for not too much. He might make a nice reclamation project.

A quick perusal of the list of minor league free agents shows nobody obviously better than Burriss or Rohlinger. Luis Rodriguez from the White Sox organization had an Andres Torres-like breakout last year in AAA, but he played almost exclusively 2B leading one to suspect that he is no longer a shortstop.

There is some talk that Ryan Theriot could be non-tendered by the Dodgers. He would be an interesting option, especially if his buddy Mike Fontenot stays on with the Giants as a utility infielder.

Trades: Unfortunately this is where Sabean is probably going to have to find next year's shortstop if Uribe goes elsewhere.

There has been some speculation that Stephen Drew may be available, but there really has been no indication that he actually is. In any event, the D'Backs would be looking for a haul in return, and they might not trade him within the division at any price. Drew would be a perfect fit, though.

Jason Bartlett had a down year and the Rays are looking to shed payroll. They have a couple of younger, cheaper options in Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, so Bartlett might be available on the cheap. The Rays are looking for cheap bullpen help and the Giants could help them with that. Bartlett isn't a great fielder nor a great hitter, but he has enough speed to be a SB threat, something the Giants could use more of.

Boston has a logjam at SS with Marco Scuturo signed last year as a FA, but Jed Lowrie ready to take over. They may be open to trading one or the other. Neither would be cheap in terms of who the Giants would have to give up though.

There are rumors that the White Sox are listening to offers for Gordon Beckham. He played mostly 2B last year, but played an adequate SS in 2009. He is pre-arbitration eligible, and would be a nice high ceiling pickup if the Giants could put together a package for him.

The Yankees are almost desperate to upgrade their bullpen. They have proclaimed that Eduardo Nunez is the heir Derek Jeter at shortstop, but one has to think that is just a pathetic attempt at posturing in Jeter's salary negotiations. Nunez should be available for a decent reliever. He might not be much of an upgrade over Emmanuel Burriss or Brandon Crawford though.

Am I missing anyone? Who do you think will be the Giants starting shortstop next season?

9 comments:

  1. Yeah, I think this is the bigger problem, for the reason you state.

    About your speculations, they make a lot of sense for the Giants for the most part if available. JJ Hardy the Giants were kicking the tires on before, if I recall right. I like Theriot a lot too, and he would provide speed the Giants have been looking for. Not sure about his defense though.

    I think Barlett's defense might be better than you think, BIS has him close to plus one win on defense (0.7) while UZR is 0.45. Not great but pretty good.

    I like Scuturo, Lowrie was suppose to be the starter before he had his injury. They might be willing to give him up for not a lot, they are on the hook for $5M in 2011, then team option for $6M in 2012, player option for $3M and $1.5M buyout.

    I wouldn't touch Beckham if they want Belt for him. I would have to think about it for Wheeler, but probably not. Anybody else, I think I would be game for trading.

    I think the Giants will bottom fish in January after non-tenders and remaining FA are left. Cabrera seems to be a favorite for last minute hook-up, as long as he's not paid a lot, maybe around as much as Uribe, a little higher, I can go for that.

    I think Burriss would be adequate offensively at SS - sounds like he should go through hitting transformation like Torres, sounds like similar situation where he is not utilizing his power properly - as he has pretty good plate discipline, not striking out a lot, but poor in that he don't walk that much and instead hit into a lot of weak grounders where even his speed won't do anything for him. Defensively, it sounds like he should be at 2B, so I don't consider him a great option, but the Giants might end up with him starting there if things don't shake out well in the free agent market.

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  2. if the team loses uribe, fontenot is a cheap utility replacement...but not a starter

    burriss needs to bulk up a bit

    seems to me that the entire left side of the if is a huge question mark for next season

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  3. I think Sandoval is still penciled in as the starting 3B, but obviously if the team is threatening him with demotion, he's no sure thing. Shortstop is an obvious issue. Uribe really solves both problems, but the question is how much are the Giants willing to over pay him.

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  4. And, Dr. B, that is the problem. With little or no alternatives, Uribe at 3 yrs and $25 mil seems like a Sabean type solution.

    I am not familiar with all the names, but I have always liked Theriot. I would prefer they go with a Theriot type, keeping the spot open for Crawford, rather than bringing back Uribe and blocking not only Crawford but any other solution. Uribe may be the best option as a) he only costs money and b) won't cost a player (in trade). On the other hand, the Gs have so many 40 man RPs that trading one or two of their middle of the pack RPs may not be the worst thing.

    I think it is facinating what a nearly impossible situation faces Sabean. Maybe he will overpay a bit to get the Japanese SS who wants to be posted.

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  5. I like the idea of going after Beckham. Given his early experience at SS (in college?), and his more recent playing time at 3B and 2B, he brings some defensive versatility. He could be serviceable at short, as well as a fallback if Panda becomes a lost cause or makes a switch to 1B. Assuming it wouldn't take Belt, Culberson, or Wheeler, I'd be all over it. If he lives up to his promise, he'd be a good secondary cornerstone behind Posey, and hopefully alongside Belt and Pablo.

    As for the others, Theriot seems like a good fit. Good veteran presence, decent speed, and, until his Dodger days, solid offensive numbers (except his lack of power). Hardy, on the other hand, could possibly be a Huff type of pickup. Maybe a turnaround is in the future for him.

    And finally, on Uribe...assuming no better options come to us (like the above scenarios), I'd be happy with him coming back. No, I don't want to spend too much on him, but his power is what separates him from other SS's, as well as kept our offense going for a lot of the year. He, too, would be a fallback if Pablo doesn't return to form or moves to first.

    Lucky

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  6. Everybody,

    Thanks for the feedback! Great ideas there. I think it's pretty much a lock that Uribe won't get 3 years/$25 million from the Giants. Sabes has been known to overpay, but he's not going to go for that one!

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  7. what about nishioka? given the extremely thin market for Shortstops his posting adds an interesting wrinkle to the offseason.

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  8. Rumors have the Angels, Dodgers and Giants expressing interest in Nishioka. Not sure what the posting fee will be, but depending on his scouting reports, it's something a team in the Giants situation would have to think about.

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  9. The only way it would make sense for the Giants to spend $15 million on a posting fee is if they believe in Nishioka enough to think he is their best option at SS for the next 3-4 years minimum. I just don't see them making a long term commitment of that size on an unknown quantity, or on any player until the Zito/Rowand contracts are done.

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