Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Game Wrap NLCS Game 3: Giants 3 Phillies 0

Matt Cain has been the Rodney Dangerfield of pitchers. Just over 8 years ago, he was widely considered an overdraft by the Giants when they made him their first round draft choice. As prospect, he was often overshadowed in prospect oriented magazines and websites in favor of Felix Hernandez, Chad Billingsley and others even though his minor league stats were comparable, and in some cases better. First he was thought to be injury prone(John Sickels posted an infamous "Chrystal Ball" that had Cain with a relatively short career due to arm injuries). Then, he was, oh my gosh, a whole year older than Felix Hernandez at the same level! (nevermind that he was still young for his level and Hernandez actually had been playing pro ball longer). As a major leaguer, Cain has confounded the Sabermetrics crowd year after year by inexplicably, at least to them, posting ERA's substantially better than something called an xFIP. Well, take your xFIP and put it......! I have followed Matt Cain's career since he was drafted in 2002. Spectacular numbers for low A Hagerstown before getting shut down with a stress reaction in the elbow, the only injury he has had in his career so far. My family and I went to the first minor league game we had ever attended in Rancho Cucamonga just to see him pitch, and came away with his autograph. I watched his major league debut, his early struggles and successes. I've watched him grow as a pitcher from a kid with a wicked humming fastball and not much else to a complete pitcher who almost never gets rattled on the mound and competes with a dogged determination like I don't think I've ever seen.

Maybe, maybe Cainer will finally start to get some respect after what he's accomplished in his two playoff starts on national TV. Today, he just shut down one of the more potent offenses in the National League and led the Giants to an important, if not essential win in the NLCS. Key lines:

Edgar Renteria- 1 for 4. Leading off, Rent got the first hit and was the first baserunner off Cole Hamels in the top of the 4'th inning triggering a 2 run rally that proved to be all the runs Matt Cain and the pitching staff needed.

Freddy Sanchez- 1 for 3, S. Freddy sacrificed Rent to 2'nd and and inning later singled in Aaron Rowand for an insurance run.

Buster Posey- 0 for 4. Buster's bat is starting to look tired.

Pat Burrell- 0 for 2, BB. After Buster failed to cash in Rent from 2B, Burrell drew a 2 out walk to keep the inning alive.

Cody Ross- 1 for 3. Once again, Cody Ross drew first blood by singling in Rent from 2B and in the process keeping the inning alive.

Aubrey Huff- 1 for 3. Huff kept the line moving with another RBI single scoring Burrell and the game was won!

Aaron Rowand- Got a start against the LHP for the struggling Andres Torres and made good on it with a double to lead off the 5'th inning. He eventually scored Chase Utley muffed a ground ball by Freddy Sanchez that was eventually scored as a hit.

Matt Cain- 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's. I was at work, so had to follow the game on Gameday. It's amazing how much of a feel you can get for a game just by following Gameday. When I saw the low pitch count for the first inning and Cain's velocity in the 93-95 MPH range with his fastball, I immediately felt like the Giants were going to win. Once I saw them put up the 2 spot, I was confident. I knew Cainer would likely take the shutout deep into the game and felt the bullpen could hold it if it was needed for 2 innings or less. A moment of mild concern in the 7'th when Cain hit Ruiz and then walked the pinch hitter Gload. He was missing badly with his breaking pitches and the FB velocity was down to 90-91. I really felt like it was important to get the game to the bullpen in the 8'th inning with a 3 run lead. Fortunately, Cain got Victorino t ground out to Freddy Sanchez and the inning was over with the shutout intact.

Javier Lopez- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. Lopez came in to face Utley, Polanco and Howard. Much had been made of Charlie Manuel separating Utley and Howard in the lineup to partially neutralize Lopez. What Manuel and the Pundits didn't count on was 1. While Lopez is kryptonite for LH hitters, he's pretty darn good against RH hitters too, so Bochy can leave him in for a whole inning if he wants to. 2. Polanco doesn't exactly strike fear in the hearts of opposing managers or pitchers of any kind. Lopez cut through the 2, 3 and 4 hitters like a hot knife through butter, just like he did to Utley and Howard in Game 1. I'm pretty sure Charlie Manuel is going to lose some sleep tonight thinking about Javier Lopez. What a great pickup by Brian Sabean! What a great way to use him by Bruce Bochy!

Brian Wilson- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K. On Wilson's first three pitches to Werth looked like he was afraid to challenge him. I was quietly yelling at the computer screen at work, "You have a 3 run lead, dangit! Go ahead and challenge him. You don't want to walk him!" Wilson came back, as he so often does and blew Werth away. When Rollins followed with a drive off the RF wall that Nate played perfectly to hold him to a single, I was not worried. The first pitch to Ibanez was a fastball at the knees on the outside corner for a strike. I said to myself, "he's going for the double play!" Next pitch was a slider in the same location and the message came up "In play, out(s)." I pumped my fist. "It's a double play!", and I was right. Game over!

With the win, the Giants take a strategically important 2-1 lead in the best of 7 series.

Madison Bumgarner takes the mound against, presumably, Joe Blanton tomorrow night. Manuel has announced Blanton as the starter, but there is still some speculation that he may change his mind overnight and go with Roy Halladay on 3 days rest. I think it will be Blanton. Although a loss would put the Phillies in a deep hole, teams have come back from 3-1 deficits. Going to Halladay would be a panic move with no guarantee of success. Blanton has pitched some good games against the Giants. I have a lot of confidence in Bumgarner and if he pitches like he is capable of, the Giants should win. I wouldn't even write the game off if it was Bumgarner vs Halladay on 4 days rest!(furiously knocks on wood). LOL!

Great, great game by Matt Cain and the Giants! Go MadBum! Go Giants!!

6 comments:

  1. i dont think posey is tired...it think he is concentrating so much on calling the games that it is getting in the way of his hitting

    the atl was a breeze...those guys werent hitting no matter what you threw them...with philly, you gotta think with almost every batter

    this was bochy's best managed game of the year....HE CALLED FOR THE FRACKIN BUNT...IT WAS A MIRACLE

    he left lopez in against a righty

    i think charlie is nuts if he sends halladay on short rest....halladay loses, they are done

    even if blanton loses, they have halladay going on thursday

    lets be honest...what are the chances of the giants beating halladay twice in a week

    then its back to philly to face oswalt and hamels again....still damn tough...and i hate that band box and the scum that hang out in it

    oh...and the yankees are done...and brian cashman has alot of work to do in the offseason

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yup, there is still a long road ahead before we can start thinkng World Series. But......I started thinking sometime during Cliff Lee's game that maybe we ought to start hoping for the Yankees to win just in case the Giants do make it to the Series. Really, if it wasn't for one fluky inning and some very questionable managing by Ron Washington, that series would already be over!

    Yeah, Cashman has a lot of work to do, but the Yanks always seem to come up with about a quarter of a billion reasons why his job isn't too tough. I think Cliff Lee just bought himself a lottery ticket worth at least a hundred million of those reasons.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yeah, FIP and xFIP assumes that a pitcher conforms to DIPS conventions. However, Cain counters that in two key areas: BABIP and HR/FB. He is proving to be able to keep BABIP much below .300 mean, like a crafty lefty would, and his low HR/FB is due to his ability to get pop-flies, which the stats have not been able to filter out (for some odd reason, since they have that as a percentage usually too), probably is right around the 10% mean if look only at true flyballs.

    In any case, sabers would adjust for those and say that Cain is really, really lucky, a luck that has lasted for 6+ seasons now. That is one of the problems of mass application of a concept when certain key assumptions in the model needs to be monitored to see if the pitcher might be one of the exceptions to the rule. I do because I can do that on a pitcher by pitcher basis just for the Giants while others are using mass data available on Fangraphs, so I don't totally blame them, though I mainly do because most have the hubris to think that the formula is inviolate, when I know that it isn't.

    Keep up the great work! Thanks again, much appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
  4. I've had this debate over and over. The problem is if you just look at the data, a flyball is a flyball. The flyballs Cain gets are not warning track flies that might leak over the fence by accident. They are pop-ups! The HR's he gives up are mistakes that are usually crushed and no-doubters and Cain doesn't make many mistakes.

    Interestingly, most of his pop-up outs are off the fastball while most of he HR's are off the breaking ball, because he is much more likely to make a mistake with the breaking ball and hang it. Those are the ones that get crushed.

    ReplyDelete
  5. looks like texas and the yanks are gonna get into a bidding war for lee

    thing is, if im lee, im looking out for more than my financial future

    take the yank deal...could be the biggest in history for a pitcher...however, you also have to take a harder division to pitch in, a homer friendly park, and a press that is just itchin to destroy you

    take the texas deal for a little bit less, and you are in the ezpz west...and texas is a football state...the press basically leaves ballplayers alone.

    i do believe that crawford is headed for the yanks, although i wish that by some miracle sabean could grab him.

    oh, and the bums signed lilly today for 33 mil...i have absolutely no clue how the bums are signing anyone...at the end of november, they very well may be forced to sell the team...putting them in the same situation that the friars found themselves in.

    cant wait to watch madbum tonite...will be great experience for the kid

    if the giants win tonite, i suggest putting all the fox execs on suicide watch...ratings for the lcs are way down...a texas-sf ws would be a killer, the entire eastern seaboard would tune out.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I think Crawford is going to LA Angels. I tend to agree, Lee should seriously look at staying in Texas if they give him any kind of competitive offer.

    ReplyDelete