Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Down on the Farm: BA's AZL Top 20 Prospects

It's time for BA to start their annual Top 20 Prospects by League series. First up is the Arizona League where the Giants field a team. The AZL has expanded with the addition of the Dodgers and Reds so it's a bit harder to make the list this year. The Giants placed just 2 prospects on the list this year: OF Chuckie Jones at #13 and RHP Heath Hembree at #16. Here are some comments from the scouting reports(My own thoughts will be in parentheses):

Jones- Built like a linebacker. Speed slightly above average, but the Giants believe he can stay in CF. Has shown he can go at get the ball. Best tool is raw power. Needs to improve pitch selection and learn to hit curveballs.

Hembree- Has a fresh arm due to not pitching many innings in college. "Overpowering" 93-98 MPH fastball and a power slider. Needs to improve fastball command and life, rely more on the slider. Has the makings of an effective changeup, will work on it in instructional league.

There were several Giants questions in the chat:

Rafael Rodriguez- gets some decent swings and even turns on a few balls. Don't see him driving the ball with authority. Didn't appear to get stronger from last year. Lots of "moving parts" in swing. The Giants know it will be a long, slow process with Rodriguez, but he's just turned 18 so is still a prospect.

Austin Fleet- pitched well but as a 23 year old 4 year college guy, doesn't profile as a prospect. (The Giants converted him from closing to starting, so I'll reserve judgement to see what he does at a higher level next year).

Kendry Flores- Fastball 90-94, touches 95. Good feel for breaking ball. Plus changeup. (sounds to me like he should have made the list).

Jacob Dunnington- Numbers very good, but Mitchell didn't get much of a read from scouts and managers.(I've read that Dunnington's fastball is around 92 MPH. Gotta love those numbers and at 19 is not too old for the league).

Chuckie Jones- "room on that big body to get even stronger."

5 years ago, the Giants had Waldis Joaquin, Sharon Martis and Sharlon Schoop make the list. Looking over the entire list from 5 years ago, it is apparent that you have to take these things with a grain of salt. The only guy who turned out to have star potential was #5 Nick Adenhart who's life was tragically cut short just as he was bursting onto the MLB scene.

4 comments:

  1. Yeah, got to take these Top 20 lists far down in the minors with a giant grain of salt. The funnel is huge at this point of the farm system, and the gauntlet of talent that washes over each prospect is hard and unrelenting.

    Thanks for the rundown on other Giants mentioned in the chat, very interesting information.

    Are you worried at all about RafRod? Or was I spoiled by how well Angel Villalona did?

    What is the negatives on Hembree that he has an overpowering 93-98 MPH fastball and power slider, and yet he fell that far into the draft?

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  2. Hembree was a college closer and for just his last season. Prior to that, he didn't pitch a lot of innings for one reason or another. I'm not sure there are negatives here. He just didn't get a lot of exposure and we have ample evidence that the Giants scouts ourwork other teams, especially when it comes to finding pitchers.

    I am a lot more confident that RafRod's power will develop than the BA guy seems to be. He just turned 18 for goodness sakes! He makes a lot better contact and has better plate discipline than Angel V ever had. At this level, I'd prefer the hitter who makes contact and controls the strike zone and has projectable power than the guy who hits an occasional bomb and not much else.

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  3. OK, that makes sense on Hembree, most teams will see him as a reliever only, and only the best will get drafted very high.

    I know RafRod showed more discipline in 2009, but this year his strikeout rate was 21% and his BB/K ratio was only 8/35, but I wasn't sure how good that is by his age standard. But normally, that would not be considered good. So, to be clear in my mind, you are saying that this is good for a 18 YO playing against older competition.

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  4. I think it's fine for an 18 year old. I don't remember his exact numbers, but I seem to remember Angel V as being worse than that.

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