I thought I'd try my hand at a mock draft. Disclaimer: I'm generally terrible at predictions in general and particularly terrible at Mock drafts. This draft is extremely difficult to predict as there are only 1 or two players who stand out above the rest. I think teams are going to play it pretty close to the vest and not take too many risks. I think you will see a lot of signability picks, especially in round 1 like what Pittsburgh did with Jason Castro last year. Here it goes:
1. Nationals: Bryce Harper, C, JC. I'm not completely sold on Bryce Harper. In scouting videos, his swing looks very long and he even has kind of a windup at the start. Still, it's pretty hard to discount his track record too much. He's dominated JC ball using wood bats against older competition. No way the Nats can afford to pass on the one player who is head and shoulders above the rest of the draft class.
2. Pirates: Manny Machado, SS, HS. As Drew Pomeranz' stock has slipped a bit, the Pirates are rumored to be more interested in Machado, the best middle infielder in the draft. The Pirates proved they are willing to spend $$$ on the draft as they went over slot on several HS players with the money they saved on Sanchez. This time they may well decide to spend more up front.
3. Orioles: Jameson Taillon, RHP, HS. The Orioles have proven they are willing to go over slot and Taillon is too good to pass up here.
4. Royals: Yasmani Grandal, C, Miami. Not really a surprise as word has leaked out of KC's interest, but few experts are biting in their mock drafts so far. This pick makes a lot of sense for KC though as Jason Kendall is no more than a stopgap, and Grandal should be ready within 2 years.
5. Indians: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Ole Miss. Cleveland will almost surely pick a college player, needs pitching it it's system and is pleasantly surprised to see Pomeranz fall to them at #5.
6. D' Backs: Deck McGuire, RHP, GA Tech. D'Backs need pitching and need it now. Don't be fooled by Deck's college W-L and ERA. He will be a dominant RH starter and will be ready almost from day 1. Likely to be seen in the future as the steal of the draft. #1 overall talent here.
7. Mets: Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Atlantic. The Mets are very conservative in the draft. Sale is the best talent available who is likely to sign for close to slot.
8. Astros: Zack Cox, 3B, Arkansas. Best college bat in the draft. Won't hit for a ton of power, but should hit for an easy .300+ with 20 HR's/season.
9. Padres: Nick Castellanos, 3B, HS. The Padres broke out of their Moneyball mold last year by drafting Donovan Tate. They are rumored to be lusting after Castellanos and are very happy to find him still on the board. Castellanos might be the best power hitting prospect in the draft not named Bryce Harper.
10. A's: Gary Brown, OF, CS Fullerton: The first huge surprise in the draft. Billy Beane is never afraid to act on his convictions. Right now he's obsessed with defensive metrics and speed in the OF. He sees Brown as his CF of the future, OBP be damned.
11. Blue Jays: Christian Colon, SS, CS Fullerton: After a painfully slow start, Colon has rebounded to have a very good season. The Jays are investing $$$ into scouting and drafting. Colon is a nice balance between short term help and best player available. He's still just as good a player as when he was being touted in the preseason as a top 5 pick.
12. Reds: Seth Blair, RHP, Arizona State. Another big surprise. The Reds have already gotten a nice return on drafting Mike Leake last year. Blair is cut from the same cloth and is from the same school.
13. White Sox- Michael Choice, OF, UT-Arlington. You never know what Kenny Williams is going to do, but he has mostly drafted college players. He goes for the best college power hitter in the draft here.
14. Brewers- Karsten Whitson, RHP, HS. The Brewers need immediate help with the pitching staff, but are drafting too low to get an elite college pitcher. Whitson has fallen at this point and promises a reasonably fast ascent through the minors.
15. Rangers- Brett Eibner, RHP, Arkansas. This is an unprotected compensation pick for failing to sign Matt Purke. Thus a strict signability pick is mandated. Eibner is a 2 way player, but most scouts like him better as a pitcher.
16. Cubs- Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State. This is a tough spot for the Cubs to be drafting in. Ideally they take a high upside pitcher, but there are no can't miss guys out there at this point. The Cubbies settle for a similar player to last year's Brett Jackson. Brentz can play RF to Jackon's CF.
17. Rays: Justin O'Conner, C/SS/RHP, HS. The Rays have a longterm organizational need at catcher. They think O'Conner can stick there and will have a plus bat.
18. Angels: Dylan Covey, RHP, HS. The Angels almost always go HS with their early picks and love SoCal players. Covey fits the bill perfectly here.
19. Astros: Stetson Allie, RHP, HS. After taking the eminently signable Zach Cox at #8, the 'Stros can afford to gamble on a high ceiling arm here. What a great name for a Texas team!
20. BoSox: Matt Harvey, RHP, UNC. The BoSox aren't afraid of Scott Boras and like Harvey's upside.
21. Twins: AJ Cole, RHP, HS. Another team that likes to draft HS players. Cole is the best player available at this point.
22. Rangers: Brandon Workman, RHP, Texas. The Rangers have multiple early picks and can't afford to go much over slot on any of them. Workman is a well known local boy.
23. Marlins: Yordy Cabrera, SS/3B, HS: The Marlins love to draft HS players with power. Cabrera fits the bill and should be easily signable.
24. Giants: Anthony Ranaudo, RHP, LSU. John Barr's MO has been to take previously highly rated guys who drop in the draft. Ranaudo's injury, a stress reaction in the elbow, should not be a long term problem(Matt Cain had the same thing in his first full pro season). Scott Boras may be an issue here as he may well think that Ranaudo can improve his stock by going back to school or playing Indy ball next spring. Other options would be HS RHP's Peter Tago or D'Andre Smelter or HS hitter Stefan Sabol.
25. Cardinals: Kevin Gausman, RHP, HS. Cards take the best HS pitcher on the board.
26. Rockies: Barrett Loux, RHP, Texas A&M. Loux has had a sensational season, is big and throws hard. The Rockies make a great pick for this late in the first round.
27. Phillies: Chevez Clarke, OF, HS. The Phils love to draft toolsy HS players and then let them take their time developing or else use them as trade bait. Clarke is a perfect fit here.
28. Dodgers: Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel. The Dodgers have taken pitching in the first round every year except for James Loney and that was a long time ago now. They are penny pinching these days and take the signability pick here, except that Asher is a darn good pitcher too!
29. Angels: Peter Tago, RHP, HS. Another SoCal HS product with not only a great upside but pretty good polish right now. Should be a fast riser in the system.
30. Angels: Stefan Sabol, C/OF, HS. Another SoCal HS player, this time a hitter. Fits the Angels' mold perfectly.
31. Rays: Kolbrin Vitek, 2B, Minnesota. Vitek is rumored to be shooting up a number of draft boards, but falls back to the Rays here.
32. Yanks: Kaleb Cowert, RHP/ OF, HS. The problem with Cowert is that most teams see him as a pitcher and he is adamant that he wants to hit. The fear is that if a team drafts him as pitcher, he'll just go to college. The Yanks don't care. They figure to give him the $$$ to sign, let him try hitting and switch him to pitcher if and when he fails. They have all the time in the world.
What do you think? Do you think there is any chance Ranaudo falls to the Giants? Do you thing they would pull the trigger if he did?
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Pittsburgh picked Tony Sanchez last year, Jason Castro(Astros) went in the same draft as Buster...
ReplyDeleteNo Austin Wilson in the first???
ReplyDeleteSorry, I always get Sanchez and Castro mixed up for some reason. Fixed.
ReplyDeleteAustin Wilson has become the most polarizing figure in the draft, at least to draft analysts. The guy at Baseball Beginnings swears he will go in the first 10-12 picks. Others say scouts are not enamored with his pitch recognition and believe the price for signing him away from Stanford will be just too high, if he's signable at all. Right now, I'm siding with the non-signable crowd, say he drops out of sight and goes to Stanford.
What about Sale, the HS OF from Washington? Many think he's the best pure HS bat in the class.
ReplyDeleteAndy Seiler at his draft blog in a recent Q&A said that Wilson would get $2.5M as a bonus. That doesn't seem that high if he's Top 10 material, so I guess the dividing line would be whether that particular team's scouts believe he is.
ReplyDeleteThe Giants have before said that Boras nor bonus demands would affect their pick, and that seems to be true after Posey then Wheeler getting much above slot bonuses. If Ranaudo is who they believe to be the best there, they will get him.
Whether he falls that far, I think it is possible since an existing injury seems to push prospective picks beyond the protected picks range, which is not far from the Giants pick. The logic of the picks just before the Giants that you brought up makes sense for it leading to Renaudo falling to us.
ReplyDeleteBut I would still prefer a hitter. Which hitter would be the BPA at that point? How much better is Renaudo?
Also, so far, the drops have happened at the post-first-round picks for the most part, though I guess you can count Lincecum and Posey as drops. The Giants generally pick players that BA rated later in terms of talent, at least from my research on that a number of years back, haven't updated that recently.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteYes, Sale is someone who I kind of lost track of. I just couldn't seem to find the right place for him and in the end I just forgot he was there. He will likely be first round draft pick, but he has a bad body and is going to be position limited. The pendulum has swung hard toward athleticism and defense and away from Sale/Travis Snider/Daric Barton types, so it wouldn't shock me if he fell quite a ways, but probably not out of the first round.
OGC,
Maybe Josh Sale to the Giants? I know Andy Seiler had him at #24 in his very first mock. He isn't a Giants type draft pick, but then neither was Tommy Joseph. Maybe John Barr has injected a few new ideas like going after the best hitter regardless of postion or fielding concerns? I still like Wilson, but have cooled on him just a bit and I think he is going to be a very difficult sign. Other than Sale or maybe Wilson, I don't really see any hitters who are as good as the pitchers who are likely to be available at #24.
I wouldn't mind seeing the Giants take the player you project to go right before Ranaudo, Yordy Cabrera. He seems to be a bit more athletic than J. Sale and has comparable power.
ReplyDeleteHe likely will not stick at SS in the majors, but 3B is still a possibility.
Baseballjunkie,
ReplyDeleteI like Cabrera too. I believe the concern about him is that he is already 20 years old so will have to develop faster than the typical HS draftee. The Giants haven't seemed to worry about that too much in the past though, so if he's on the board, he might be the guy.
I think Fairley was old for a HS draftee too... oops, maybe not the best comp to bring up. That said, Cabrera might be able to move quickly through the system regardless of his age.
ReplyDeleteA name that I haven't seen mentioned in the first round is HS 2B/SS Matt Lipka, who is regarded as a great athlete. I could see him as a Dan Uggla with more speed, less pop, or a Brian Roberts with more pop, less speed. It would be great to see the Giants get Lipka in the second round, but I don't think he'll stay on the board until the Giants pick again.