Sunday, April 4, 2010

Spring Training Update: MLB Preview and Predictions

This is going to be more condensed than the NL West Preview, but I thought I'd weigh in with some predictions about the other division races and finally who will win the WS:

AL East:

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Summary: The Yankees revenue advantage results in more than just signing free agents. It also enables them to make trades other teams can't make and that's just what they did bringing in Curtis Granderson and Javier Vasquez. The losses of Damon and Matsui are not minimal, but the additions should more than make up for the losses. The team with more current talent on the roster than any other got stronger. Pretty tough to go against that. Boston is fooling around with defensive metrics. We'll see how that turns out. They spent a ton of $$$ on John Lackey who I'm not sure translates well to Fenway and the AL East. The Rays probably have the best young talent in baseball, but that won't get you far with the Yanks and Boston in the same division. Orioles and Blue Jays are rebuilding with the Orioles farther along in the process.

AL Central:

1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cleveland Indians
5. Kansas City Royals

Summary: Twins looked poised to run away with the division until Joe Nathan went down for the season. I'm still picking them to win, but it's with much less confidence. The Twins start out with a huge built in advantage with the best catcher in baseball. They've added some punch to the middle infield with JJ Hardy and O Dog. Denard Span looks like a potential breakout and Liriano may be all the way back. The Tigers still have Miggy Cabrera, but Ordonez is aging fast and they swapped out two productive vets at second base and CF for a couple of ROY Candidates, Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson. The White Sox continue to make head scratching moves but seem to put out a solid roster every year. Cleveland is rebuilding. Let me know if you've figured out what KC is doing.

AL West:

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland A's

Summary: The Angels lost a lot this year, and they have probably come back to the rest of the division a lot. Still, they have the best lineup, top to bottom, in the division and a strong pitching staff. Kendry Morales is now the hub of the offense. There is no single dominant starter, but they are all good. Kazmir will need to stay healthy which is not a given at all. They acquired Fernando Rodney as insurance at closer. Fuentes led the league is Saves but was shaky in the process. The Mariners made some excellent offseason moves, but they still probably don't have quite enough offense and the rotation falls off dramatically after Feliz and Cliff Lee. BTW, Lee starts the year on the DL and with a suspension. The Rangers may be the team of the future, but they aren't quite there yet. Oakland is another team experimenting with defensive stats and seems to be making trades for the sake of making trades. Watch for a call up of Michael Taylor sooner than later.

Wild Card: Boston Red Sox

Best Record: New York Yankees

NL East:

1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Summary: The Phillies kind of went sideways with the Halladay-Lee trades and they gutted the farm system in the process. Still they have the best overall talent in the division even if the back end of the rotation is weak and they still are limping along with Brad Lidge in the bullpen, who starts the season on the DL. Atlanta has the odds-on favorite for the NL ROY in Jason Heyward, and the second best catcher in baseball in Brian McCann, but probably not enough other offense to support the best pitching in the division. The Mets are still a mess, especially in the starting rotation, which is horrible even if Johan Santana is back to his old self. The Nats and Pirates are rebuilding. Hard to say who's farther along with the process.

NL Central:

1. St Louis Cardinals
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Houston Astros
5. Cincinnati Reds

Summary: The best team in the division gets even stronger. They have Matt Holliday for a full season. Colby Rasmus should be better and a future star. They are kind of patching the infield together, but the pitching should be stronger with the additions of Brad Penny and rookie Jaime Garcia. The only thing I see derailing this team is a season ending injury to Albert Pujols. The Cubs are aging fast and didn't really add anything of significance over the offseason. The Brewers are treading water and still have a substandard starting rotation. The Astros are heading down and the Reds are heading up, but the 'Stros still probably have enough gas in the tank to hold the Reds off for one more season.

NL West:

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

Summary: See my last post on the NL West Preview.

Wild Card: Colorado Rockies

Best Record: St Louis Cardinals

ALDS: Los Angeles Angels over Boston Red Sox. New York Yankees over Minnesota Twins

ALCS: New York Yankees over Los Angeles Angels

NLDS: Philadelphia Phillies over San Francisco Giants. St. Louis Cardinals over Colorado Rockies

NLCS: St Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies

World Series: New York Yankees over St. Louis Cardinals.

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