Saturday, December 26, 2009

Hot Stove Update: Fernando Rodney Signs With Angels

The LA Angels announced the signing of righthanded RP Fernando Rodney to a 2 year contract for a total of $11 M. What makes this signing somewhat curious is the fact that Rodney saved 37 of 38 games for Detroit last year, and the Angels already have a closer, Brian Fuentes, who had the most Saves in baseball last year, 48. Fuentes is signed to a multiyear contract which pays him $9 M in 2010 with a vesting option for another $9 M in 2011.

While Rodney and Fuentes both saved a lot of games last year, neither was what you would exactly call a "shut down" closer. Fuentes blew 7 saves, and Rodney's secondary stats were just not very good:

Fuentes: 1-5, 3.93, 48 Saves, 55 Save Opps, 55 IP, 24 BB, 46 K's. His splits were dominant against lefthanded hitters, but not good at all against righthanded hitters with an OBPa of >.350 and a SLG % against of >.450.

Rodney: 2-5, 4.40, 37 Saves, 38 Save Opps, 75.2 IP, 41 BB, 61 K's. Note the relatively high ERA and the downright terrible walk rate!

It would appear that the Angels are paying closer prices for not just one, but two closers! Possibilities:

1. The Angels just found out that Jose Arredondo will be out for the season. With a lot of closers looking for work this offseason, they grabbed the opportunity to put a closer talent into the setup role.

2. The Angels don't trust Fuentes and wanted to have a pitcher with closing experience as a backup.

3. The Angels looked at Fuentes numbers against righthanded batters and are planning to run a closer platoon, if you will, with Rodney closing against some teams with righthanded heavy lineups. Variations on this theme could have Rodney pitching the 8'th and then extending into the 9'th for a tough RH batter to two, or vice versa.

4. Maybe the Angels are eyeing Fuentes' vesting option and thinking of using Rodney to keep Fuentes from reaching the threshold?

It all may work out marvelously for the Angels, but it also has the makings of a disaster. Fuentes is a risk to go Brad Lidge on the Angels at any time. Rodney's secondary stats don't support sustainability as a setup man, let alone a closer!

Fantasy Impact: Big. No matter how bad a closer's secondary stats are, the overwhelmingly important stat from a fantasy standpoint is Saves. The most important factor in maintaining saves for most closers is the lack of competition for the position. Last year, Brad Lidge was about as bad as a closer can get, but Charlie Manuel stuck with him and he kept on getting Saves, and kept right on having fantasy value. My fantasy team advanced in the playoffs because Brad Lidge got a couple of Saves that won the Saves category for me that week! Nobody wants to draft a closer only to have him replaced midseason and you weren't quick enough to drop your closer and grab the replacement off the FA list. The Chicago Cubs with Kevin Gregg and Carlos Marmol are a classic example. Up until yesterday, Brian Fuentes was looking like a sure bet for at least 35-40 saves, probably more with the way Mike Scioscia manages. Now, who knows? Fantasy options now include: 1. Stay away from the situation completely. 2. Draft Fuentes and keep your fingers crossed. 3. Try to draft both Fuentes and Rodney. The only saving factor in this situation is that Mike Scioscia tends to be a stickler for defined roles, so if he names a closer early, he will likely stick with it.

No comments:

Post a Comment