Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Down on the Farm: 6/26/2017

AAA  Sacramento River Cats defeated the El Paso Chihuahuas 4-2:

Mac Williamson LF- 1 for 3, 2B, BB.  BA= .255.
Jae-Gyun Hwang 1B- 1 for 3, HR(7), BB.  BA= .287.
Ali Castillo 2B- 2 for 4, 3B.  BA= .207.
Tyler Beede RHP- 8 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K.  ERA= 5.11.
Tyler Rogers RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K, Save(2).  ERA= 2.15.

-Hwang is kind of the forgotten man in the chaos of the Giants season.
-This was Beede's best Start since 5/17.
-Will Rogers get a MLB audition this season?

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AA Richmond Flying Squirrels edged the Trenton Thunder 3-2:

CJ Hinojosa SS- 2 for 4, 2B, HR(1).  BA= .270.
Sam Coonrod RHP- 5.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 4.54.
Tyler Cyr RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(10).  ERA= 3.00.

-CJ is hitting .447 over his last 10 games.

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High A  San Jose Giants pounded the Stockton Ports 12-4:

Ryan Howard SS- 3 for 5, SB(3).  BA= .327.
Dillon Dobson 1B- 1 for 5, HR(9).  BA= .228.
Bryan Reynolds CF- 4 for 5, 2 2B, HR(4).  BA= .312.
Aramis Garcia C- 2 for 4, 2 HR(10), BB.  BA= .278.

-Ryan Howard has put together a very solid first 3 months of his first full pro season:  .323 in April, .315 in May, .351 in June.  .400 over his last 10 games.
-Reynolds got off to a slow start to his first full pro season but has really kicked it into gear.  After hitting .253 in April he turned in a .340 in May and is hitting .342 so far in June.
-Aramis Garcia is hitting .333 in his last 10 games.

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Low A  Augusta Greenjackets shut down the West Virginia Power 2-0:

Sandro Fabian RF- 1 for 3, 2B.  BA= .253.
Jacob Heyward LF- 2 for 3, SB(4).  BA= .236.
Dominic Mazza LHP- 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K's, GO/AO= 11/4.  ERA= 3.48.
Patrick Ruotolo RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, Save(6).  ERA= 1.48.

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Short Season  Boise Hawks topped the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 8-2:

Ryan Kirby 1B- 1 for 4, HR(1).  BA= .357.
Nick Deeg LHP- 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 2.79.
Logan Webb RHP- 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB,  2 K's.  ERA= 3.00.

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AZL Cubs edged out the Giants 5-4:

Steven Duggar RF- 0 for 1, 2 BB.  BA= .000.
Beicker Mendoza DH- 2 for 4, 2B.  BA= .500.
Angeddy Almanzar 1B- 2 for 4.  BA= .286.
Miguel Figueroa RHP- 4.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K's. ERA= 1.93.
Sidney Duprey LHP- 3.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 8.10.

-Still no sign of any draftees.

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DSL  White Sox outscored the Giants 9-7:

Wascar DeLeon 2B- 2 for 4, 2B, SB(2).  BA= .259.
Ghordy Santos SS- 1 for 3, 3B, BB.  BA= .114.

Game Wrap 6/26/2017: Giants 9 Rockies 2

One day after hitting rock bottom for the umpteenth time this season, the Giants put together a complete effort against a team that has tormented them this season.  Key Lines:

Denard Span CF- 2 for 4, 3B, BB.  BA= .282.  Span is hitting .347 in June.

Joe Panik 2B- 2 for 4, SF.  BA= .279.  Panik is hitting .368 in June.

Hunter Pence RF- 3 for 5.  BA= .266.  Pence is hitting .308 in June.

Buster Posey C- 3 for 4, 2B, SF.  BA= .347.  Buster Posey is hitting .345 in June after hitting .354 in April and .344 in May.

Brandon Belt 1B- 1 for 3, 3B, 2 BB.  BA= .229.  Belt's career BABIP is .334.  It .268 this year after a .363 in 2015 and a .346 in 2016.  They did not just start shifting on Belt this year.  His fWAR of 1.2 is #15 among MLB 1B.  Not great but considering the first  half BABIP, not terrible either.  Even with no second half improvement, his projected fWAR of 2.4 at least earns back the AAV on his salary.

Jeff Samardzija RHP- 6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 4.63.  Samardzija's career BABIP Against is .296.  This year it's .325.  His K/BB of 10.03/1.11 is by far the best of his career.

Sam Dyson RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 9.67.  Dyson has potential.  At this point the Giants probably don't have anything to lose by being patient with him and seeing if he can find some consistency.

Kyle Crick RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K.  ERA= 4.15.  Ditto Kyle Crick.

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Matt Cain tries to get his season back on track tonight facing Rookie Jeff Hoffman.

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The MRI on Austin Slater's hip was reportedly OK and he was available to PH and could return to the lineup on 6/28.

Monday, June 26, 2017

Thoughts On What Went Wrong Part 2: More Numbers

When I started researching this post, I was planning to write about the Giants are by design a groundball/line drive team and how advances in defensive positioning have taken their game away from them.  Positioning may well be part of the problem, but my conclusion is that plain old fashioned luck played a bigger role.  Here are the numbers:

Hitting:

2016:  BABIP= .299.  GB/FB= 1.38.  LD%= 21.6.  Soft%= 20.9.  Med%= 50.7.  Hard%= 29.0.
2017:  BABIP= .280.  GB/FB= 1.43.  LD%= 19.2.  Soft%= 21.3.  Med%= 50.7.  Hard%= 28.0.

Pitching:

2016:  BABIP= .287.  GB/FB= 1.30.  LD%= 19.7.  Soft%= 19.0.  Med%= 51.3.  Hard%= 29.7.
2017:  BABIP= .320.  GB/FB= 1.19.  LD%= 22.2.  Soft%= 19.2.  Med%= 48.0.  Hard%= 32.8.

So yes, Giants batters are hitting a few more groundballs and a few fewer LD's and Giants pitchers are giving up more flyballs and more LD's.  Some of that may be by design as many MLB hitters are consciously trying to elevate the ball more and teams continue to shift more.  So it is likely not all of this is purely due to luck, but the peripheral numbers do not explain the .019 drop in BABIP by the Giants AND the .033 jump in BABIP by opposing batters.  Differences like that over a half season sample size are likely to be due to a massive case of bad BABIP luck.  After all, teams did not just start shifting this year and the Giants did not just become a GB/LD team in one season.  They've been that for a few years now.

So, if you watch game after game and think to yourself that the Giants are hitting a whole lot of balls right at defenders and opposing teams are finding a whole lot of holes in the defense and the luck has to turn sometime.  Well, it looks like the numbers back you up. While injuries and poor play have undoubtedly contributed to the Giants first half faceplant, most of if is due to plain old fashioned bad luck.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Down on the Farm: 6/25/2017

AAA  Sacramento River Cats were idle.

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AA  Richmond Flying Squirrels topped the Akron Rubber Ducks 5-4:

Myles Schroder 3B- 2 for 5, 2 2B.  BA= .295.
Slade Heathcott CF- 1 for 2, BB, Sac.  BA= .275.
Miguel Gomez 2B- 2 for 4.  BA= .317.
Jerry Sands DH- 2 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .312.
Daniel Carbonell LF- 2 for 4.  BA= .313.
Dylan Davis RF- 2 for 4, HR(4).  BA= .210.
Jose Flores RHP- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K, GO/AO= 7/2.  ERA= 2.14.
Carlos Alvarado RHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 2.70.

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High A  San Jose Giants outlasted the Visalia Rawhide 7-6 in 10 innings:

Dillon Dobson 1B- 2 for 5, BB.  BA= .228.
Bryan Reynolds DH- 2 for 6, 3B, SB(1).  BA= .302.
Gio Brusa LF- 2 for 6, 2B.  BA= .252.
Matt Winn C- 3 for 4, BB.  BA= .221.
Jalen Miller 2B- 1 for 3, 2B, BB, SF.  BA= .224.
Michael Connolly RHP- 6.2 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 3.88.

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Low Game 1  Augusta Greenjackets blanked the Hickory Crawdads 1-0:

Sandro Fabian RF- 2 for 3.  BA= .251.
Brandon Van Horn SS- 2 for 3.  BA= .246.
Caleb Baragar LHP- 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K's.  ERA= 4.04.
Patrick Ruotolo RHP- 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's, Save(5).  ERA= 1.54.

-In his last 3 Starts, Baragar has allowed 2 ER in a total of 21 P with 3 BB, and 17 K's.

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Low A Game 2  Augusta Greenjackets outslugged the Hickory Crawdads 8-5:

Johneshwy Fargas CF- 2 for 5, HR(1).  BA= .182.
Jose Vizcaino Jr. 1B- 3 for 3, 2B, SB(4).  BA= .232.
Jacob Heyward LF- 2 for 4, HR(8).  BA= .230.
Sandro Fabian DH- 1 for 3, BB.  BA= .252.
Jean Angomas RF- 2 for 4, 2 SB(6).  BA= .214.
Brandon "Scooter" Van Horn SS- 3 for 4, 3 SB(10).  BA= .256.
Sandro Cabrera LHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 3.82.
Greg Brody RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 6.43.

-Fabian is hitting .316 over his last 10 games and .282 for the month of June.
-Van Horn is hitting .395 over his last 10 games and .388 for the month of June and showing some speed on the basepaths to boot.

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Short Season  Eugene Emeralds defeated the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 7-4:

Malique "5-Tool" Zeigler CF- 3 for 4, 2 2B.  BA= .395.
Richard Amion 2B- 2 for 4, HR(1).  BA= .324.
Manuel Geraldo SS- 1 for 4, HR(1).  BA= .350.
Alejandro De La Rosa RHP- 5 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 4 K's.  ERA= 0.90.

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AZL  Angels beat the Giants 6-2:

Steven Duggar CF- 0 for 2.  BA= .000.
Madison Bumgarner LHP- 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

-Still no sign of any draftees.
-Great to see Duggar and Bumgarner start their rehab assignment.  Especially for Bumgarner to go 3 innings.

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DSL Giants were idle.

Game Wrap 6/25/2017: Mets 8 Giants 2

The Giants did not put up much of a fight to try to stave off a sweep at home against a team that is not very good.  Key Lines:

Ryder Jones 3B- 0 for 2.  BA= .000.  Opposing pitchers already seem to have a book on Jones.  He's looking for fastballs early in the count and he's not seeing the back-foot slider well.

Austin Slater LF- 0 for 2.  BA= .324.  Slater made a couple of nice running catches in the OF.  He also had a pretty nice oppo-field line drive carry into Jay Bruce's glove.

Matt Moore LHP- 4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 6.04.  I don't know if Moore was tipping his pitches or if Rene Rivera is very good at remembering opposing pitch sequences, but he appeared to know both the pitch and location ahead of time on his 2 dingers.  I mean, he swung from the heels like there was no doubt in his mind both times.  And he's a weak hitting backup catcher and if he's that good at reading pitch sequences, how come he doesn't do that against other pitchers?

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The Giants try to regroup agains the visiting Rockies who are coming off a losing streak of their own(remember the Mets were coming off a 4-game sweep in LA).  Jeff Samardzija faces German Marquez tomorrow night.

Down on the Farm: 6/24/2017

AAA  Game 1  Fresno Grizzlies defeated the Sacramento River Cats 6-2(7 innings):

Jarrett Parker DH- 1 for 3, BB.  BA= .286.
Chris Shaw LF- 2 for 3, 2B.  BA= .275.
Jae-Gyun Hwang 1B- 0 for 1, 2 BB.  BA= .289.
Tyler Rogers RHP- 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, GO/AO= 5/0.  ERA= 2.20.

-Sidearm/Submarine pitchers are a bit out of vogue right now.  Could the Giants use one in their pen just for a different look?  I guess Gearrin sort of fits that description right now.

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AAA Game 2  Fresno Grizzlies mauled the Sacramento River Cats 6-2(7 innings):

Nothing to see here.

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AA  Akron Rubber Ducks downed the Richmond Flying Squirrels 3-2:

Nothing to see here.

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High A  Visalia Rawhide whipped the San Jose Giants 2-1:

Ronnie Jebavy CF- 2 for 4.  BA= .338.
Conner Menez LHP- 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 7 K's.  ERA= 3.79.
Will LaMarche RHP- 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K's.  ERA= 2.00.

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Low A  Augusta Greenjackets vs Hickory Crawdads postponed due to wet grounds.

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Short Season  Eugene Emeralds outlasted the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 7-6 in 12 innings:

Malique "5-Tool" Zeigler CF- 1 for 4, 2 BB, BA= .359.
Kevin Rivera 2B- 2 for 6, 2B.  BA= .205.
Ryan Kirby 1B- 2 for 4, 2 2B, 2 BB.  BA= .371.
Manuel Geraldo SS- 2 for 6.  BA= .361.
Kendry Melo RHP- 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 0.00.

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AZL  Angels edged out the Giants 4-3:

Ismael Munguia LF- 2 for 4, 2B, BB.  BA= .500.
Jake Greenwalt RHP- 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 3 K's.  ERA= 3.60.

-No draftee sightings in this game.

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DSL  Giants beat the White Sox 3-1:

Aynesber Sivira 3B- 2 for 2, 2 HBP, SB(8).  BA= .250.
Norwith Gudino RHP- 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K's.  ERA= 1.96.

Game Wrap 6/24/2017: Mets 5 Giants 2

This was a pretty good pitcher's duel until the Giants bullpen entered the picture in the 8'th inning.  Key Lines:

Brandon Belt 1B- 1 for 4, HR(14).  BA= .228.  Sparky has 3 dingers in his last 5 games and is now on a pace to hit at least 28 on the season.  He still has 4 games until the mathematical midpoint.  His previous career high in HR's was 18.

Ryder Jones 3B- 0 for 4.  BA= .000.  Wow! Ryder Jones looks like he's put in some work on his body since I last saw him play for the San Jose Giants.  Back then I was comparing him to Babe Ruth without the paunch.  He looks like a 5-tool athlete now.  Hard to judge 1 game and he was facing one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the early look suggests he may struggle with sliders at the back foot, like pretty much every other LH hitting prospect the Giants have brought up….except maybe Joe Panik.

Johnny Cueto RHP- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 3 K's. ERA- 4.20.  The peripherals aren't pretty, but this was Cueto's most effective start of the season.  He has 4 QS out of his last 6 with one of the non-QS being a 2 ER/5 IP game. He has a 3.42 ERA over that 6 start span.

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Matt Moore had a pretty good start his last time out and will try to build on that today while facing Rafael Montero of the Mets.